Let me begin by writing, I hate excuses! Take an honest look, find the problem, and fix it. Don’t play the blame game, not unless you are the one accepting the blame and not trying to shift it on to someone else.
Why am I writing this?
Waking up this morning, I saw another blogger writing an article entitled “After Malkin’s Return, Penguins in Flux, Turnovers, Mistakes & Passengers”. Said blogger kept writing it wasn’t Malkin’s fault, over and over again, and in so doing was blaming Evgeni Malkin.
First let’s address the idea that the team is turning the puck over more now that Malkin is back – FALSE!!
Using the NHL’s own web site, before Malkin returned, Our Pittsburgh Penguins Gave the puck away 7.15 times per 60 minutes (Gv/60). In the games Malkin has played in, the Black-and-Gold’s GV/60 is 6.96, down 0.19. Conversely our favorite flightless fowl only managed to Take the puck away 7.07 times per 60 minutes (Tk/60); that represents a -0.08 in the Tk – Gv/60 differential. Since Malkin has returned our home town heroes have a Tk/60 of 7.95; the Tk/60 has jumped up 0.80 and the Tk – Gv/60 differential is now on the plus side +0.99. Our team’s Tk – Gv/60 has jumped 1.08.
Let me repeat this for those Malkin Hater’s, the statement that the team has more turnovers with Malkin back is absolutely FALSE!!
So, what is wrong with our Penguins?
First, at least at this point, maybe nothing is wrong. The team is only on a 3-game losing streak, but picked up 2 points in those losses because 2 of those loses were OT/SO.
Second, if the team is about ready to slide; oh, I don’t know, maybe I was right when I said don’t get too excited while our Pens were on their vaunted 18-2 streak, they were playing the bottom of the league. During that 18-2 streak the average position in the league rankings that Mike Sullivan’s team faced was 21.05; bottom third of the league. The average Points Percentage Pts% of our opponents was 0.492, or below 0.500.
I know some people will say, “every team has to be played and the Penguins do not make their own schedule”; I know that, but that response is not really listening to what was said, or more accurately, not critically thinking about it. I said don’t get too excited, don’t buy your Stanley Cup Finals tickets yet. Sidney Crosby and crew were only doing what they should be doing, beating the bottom third of the league.
Prior to that 18-2 streak against the bottom third of the league, our Penguins were 17th in the league with a Pts% of 0.568.
Honestly, why isn’t anyone asking why the [your favorite euphemism inserted here] is Dominik Simon still in the lineup? In the 20 games against the bottom third of the league only scored 1 Goal (G) and 3 Assists (A) and has taken stupid penalties at critical times.
When I wrote my preseason predictions, I wrote, “when Evan Rodrigues plays Center and in a top 6 role he will excel, when Malkin comes back and he slides down the line up, to a bottom 6 role, particularly on the Wing instead of Center he will disappear”. What is Sullivan doing? He has taken to playing E-Rod on Wing and bottom 6.
When Sullivan has had Radim Zohorna, Malkin, and Jeff Carter together they have a CORSI% 70.00%, and they controlled the puck with an 80% Offensive Zone Face Off Percentage (OZFO%). They got the puck into the O-Zone and kept it there. So, what has Sullivan done? Avoided putting that line back together. But then again what should I expect? Jake Guentzel’s With-or-Without you (WoW) numbers have always been higher with Malkin than Sidney Crosby, but you only see Guentzel with Malkin in games Sid is hurt.
If Sullivan really wants to maximize this team’s chances of winning, he should try putting the Zohorna-Malkin-Carter line back together and keep it together for more than the 6 minutes and change that you have doled out to it. He should move E-Rod to 3rd line Center with Kasperi Kapanen; they worked really well together early in the season. However, our Coach had to break up that Combo too.
In fact, Jason Zucker actually look his best (relative term) when skating with E-Rod and Kapanen – when Zucker gets healthy again, put him back out there with E-ROd and Kappy.
And for love of hockey, waive Simon and send him to Wheeling; skip Wilkes Barre – Scranton (WBS), send him to Wheeling. Or loan him to the French or English leagues, those are the teams he plays best against (See the World Tournament from a couple of years ago).
There are at least 7 players either in WBS of on the Taxi squad I would rather see in the lineup than that oxygen thief.
Wrap Up
NO! Malkin isn’t to blame. The stats show that the common Malkin complaints are way, way off base. Furthermore, at the moment, the team is only at a speed bump after the last three games, not a full-blown downward spiral. Just as I cautioned that the 18-2 game streak didn’t mean get your Finals’ tickets, this current slump isn’t stirring any false hope in me at getting a chance to draft Shane Wright.
If there is a problem here (and you know I think, yes) it is the Coach. He puts players in a position to fail not succeed. Zohorna-Malkin-Carter worked well together – put them back together. Zucker-E-Rod-Kapanen worked well together – put them back together and you probably won’t have to ask where is this player of that player.
Odds and Sods
Getting back to my opening statement about excuses and the blame game; I still don’t like the trade, but two games back Mike Matheson impressed me. During an interview between periods, even though I didn’t think he was playing all that bad, he took the blame for the Goal Against (GA) scored during the previous period.
Rick & The Other Rick
I think everyone has to be realistic. First going 18-2 is amazing and no team is going to avoid a
few rough stretches along the way. Second and I’ll start with E-Rod – he’s been giving the Pen’s
much more than anyone including myself expected and for me it was just a matter of time
before his game tailed off. The bright side is while struggling the team is finding ways to squeeze
out points while obviously not at their best. For me the biggest problem the Penguins have is
putting to much stock in regular season games. The playoffs are an entirely different animal all-
together and what players can they rely on in a much more physical environment. The plus side
is the team has great chemistry but I’m standing by my earlier comments that a couple of additions
need to be made prior to April for this team to fully reach it’s potential.
Mike,
Agreed the playoffs are an entirely different beast and this team is extremely ill equipped for that war.
However, I don’t share your optimism that the team will make the moves you want.
1st the team has no maneuver room or assets to make any moves.
2nd even if they did, Sullivan won’t use the assets.
I also agree with you that there will always be ups and downs during a season so this 3 game slump (in the standings – really they haven’t been playing well for a while), is nothing to get depressed about., however just as the 18-2 record was nothing to get excited about. This team is more like the team that was ranked 17th before the 18-2 run – maybe a little better, maybe 11th or 12th if they get lucky.
The Other Rick
The salary cap is only a number. Fans put way more of an emphasis on it than it deserves. You can
always find ways to create cap space but the GM has to be willing to get creative without compromising
the future of the team/organization but it can be done.
I’ve said this before the Pens biggest issue is they continue to live in the past. If I’m the Penguins I move
Malkin and Letang for whatever prospects or young players I can get in return and knock 16mil off the
cap. Look, Crosby’s not going anywhere but the other two are expendable. If you hang onto them after
this year you’re stuck with them until they retire and you end up with NOTHING. This would set us back
for several years.
Also, I don’t totally agree with your assessment of assets – I think some of our younger players are proving
to be a little better than advertised – I also think if they don’t give Bellerive a shot in the near future there will
be teams around the league who come calling about his availability.
Last comment: I do have concerns about Malkin. He’s a stubborn guy but he has to come to grips with the
fact he’s not in his mid-twenties anymore and he needs to make the necessary adjustments for continued
“TEAM” success.
GO PENS
Hey Mike,
All sports have different Cap flexibility. The NHL’s Cap is fairly rigid. There are ways around it as evidenced by Tampa Bay last season, but there aren’t too many loop holes, nor has the Penguins or Hextall really shown the mind set to get creative in that department.
On Malkin and Letang, Hextall has already made it abundantly clear that those players need to think n terms of team friendly contracts. In Malkin’s case he has made overtures to taking a team friendly and I do like him (We obviously disagree here) so I keep him if I can. If not, I deal him now and try to get Fla to bite on him with Lundell as my return. (I know I have said that before). No, Geno isn’t in his 20s anymore, but there is a perceptible change in the teams offense when he is on the ice. Even when skating with Pylons, his line becomes a threat. Even Crosby’s line got a boost with Geno’s return and opponents now having to cover that Russian Bear.
On Letang, apparently he thinks he is worth $8 mil for 5 years, trade him now. Ain’t no way in the world this team can handle that contract. He has to be traded now. He is going to walk at the end of the year any way (Montreal), get something for him.
I like Bellerive, I have said that many times. I want to see him in a Black and Gold Sweater but he also is RFA. We can still control him, but he will be gone soon, if Sullivan has his druthers.
Hey Coach
I echo Rick’s comments in that this was a very well done article. Very factual and informative.
If i may, i saw the LA Kings paste the Pen’s the last time we played them and the game was not close at all.
Last night it looked like the Pens were going to try to even the score and push back. But the Kings did not respond.
12 hits ?? LA does not play that way…They are a physical team.
Why ? Because they knew they could pound our Pens any time they wanted.They are a bigger team and play in the physical Western Conference where most of the teams hit. They let the smaller Pens pound a way and they had very little effect on the Kings..Like you said little Bee stings instead of Bear bites. Great analogy.
I am truly worried moving forward that this team is going to get injured and we have no depth or Cap Space to replace anyone. The days of trading draft picks are over so we will no option to make significant upgrades to our team.
Thanks for letting rant Coach.
cheers
Jim
PS. Great job in defending Geno…
Hey Jim,
Thank you for your kind words.
Interesting little stat to go along with our discussion about E-Rod’s lack of a physical presence; E-Rod had 10 hits last game and they were all in the O-Zone, 10 O-Zone hits! Yet for all of the hitting he and his line had no Goals, no high danger chances, only 1 shot and only forced 2 O-Zone face-offs during his TOI. Let me repeat 0 G, 0 HDCF, 1 SF and only 2 extra O-Zone FO; E-Rod’s 10 hits were useless. As you said, the Kings just shrugged him off.
Conversely of Zohorna’s 7 hits 6 were O-Zone hits even though he had no O-Zone starts. Zohorna’s line didn’t get any G or HDCF but they did find a way to get SF (5).
You are right, the Pens will not be getting any outside help, they have no maneuver room. I actually think there are a couple of internal players that outclass a couple of passengers on this bus but the doorman on the bus is too enamored of Simon to waive the bum.
I am afraid this team will be good enough to finish high enough to screw themselves out of decent draft pick and once again fail in the first round. And we will be having this conversation again next season my friend.
Please NO …Not another season of frustration. !!!!
BTW, there has been some interesting comments about Letang and his possible new contract extension.
Hextall has said basically we only have so much money and we will NOT be giving it all to Geno or Kris. Yes we want to sign them both but on OUR TERMS. Biggest problem I see Coach is that Letang’s long term agent and good friend is now the New GM of Montreal and they will out bid us . They are the logical choice for his services.
Letang has said in the French media he wants a 5 year contract.This will not end well for us.
Jim
Hey Jim,
Yes, I saw those comments and that is what ticks me off. No not the loss of Letang. (He does have assets, but I am tired of his limitations.) My problem is this, we will not trade him, reveling in our delusion of another Cup run that will at best end in another 1st round loss – using Letang as a rental, then lose him in the off-season for nothing. This is just one more reason why I say blow it up and trade Letang and get some time of return for him.
Barring some sort of Divine intervention this team is NOT going anywhere this season. They have too many holes, and too little assets and maneuvering room to fill those holes.
Thanks Rick,
Said blogger done poked the bear this AM. I couldn’t help this
Hey Other Rick,
I only have a moment to respond, but great article and I mean GREAT! Very passionate, focused and just plain well done. Also very enlightening.
At this stage I’m pretty much in total agreement with everything you wrote. Again…great piece!
Rick