Now that the initial wave of trades and free-agent signings has passed, a question’s been banging around in my noggin for the past couple of days.
As presently constructed, are the Penguins playoff bound?
Yeah, I know it’s early. And president of hockey ops Kyle Dubas may still have a trick or two (Erik Karlsson) up his sleeve. But what the heck.
Back to my question. A tricky one with no easy answers. On the plus side of the ledger, Dubas imported a spate of new players to man the bottom six and provide organizational depth. He significantly improved our ‘d’ as well by signing Ryan Graves. Changes that should bring new energy and vigor to what was a decidedly stale mix last season.
Still, questions remain. Will Tristan Jarry stay healthy and emerge as a true No. 1 goalie? Will the recast bottom six be able to score? What role, if any, will dual albatrosses Mikael Granlund and Jeff Carter fill? Perhaps the most chilling…who steps up if there are injuries to our top six, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in particular?
Then there’s the not-so-small matter of our competition. Some foes improved, some regressed while others are treading water. Here’s a glance at the significant moves of our Eastern Conference brethren.
THE METRO
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Carolina Adds: Bunting (lw), Lemieux (lw), Orlov (ld) Subtracts: de Haan (ld), Pacioretty (lw) Re-ups: Andersen (g), Raanta (g), Coghlan (rd) Unsigned: Puljujarvi (rw), Stastny (c), Stepan (c) Skinny: Bunting and Orlov are solid additions. ‘Canes should once again battle for Metro crown. |
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New Jersey Adds: Toffoli (rw), C. Miller (rd), Kallgren (g) Subtracts: Blackwood (g), Graves (ld), Sharangovich (c), Wood (lw) Re-ups: Bastian (rw), McLeod (c) Unsigned: Bahl (ld), Tatar (lw) Skinny: Toffoli makes a dangerous young team more deadly. Will push and perhaps surpass ‘Canes in battle for Metro supremacy. |
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New York Rangers Adds: Belzile (c), Bonino (c), E. Gustafsson (ld), Nash (c), T. Pitlick (c), Quick (g), Wheeler (rw) Subtracts: Carpenter (c), Mikkola (ld) Re-ups: K. Miller (ld) Unsigned: Halak (g), P. Kane (rw), Lafrenière (lw), Tarasenko (rw) Skinny: Turning into a Penguin-esque home for the aged, but still playoff bound. |
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New York Islanders Adds: Gauthier (rw) Subtracts: Bailey (c) Re-ups: Engvall (c), Mayfield (rd), Varlamov (g) Unsigned: Parise (lw), Wahlstrom (rw) Skinny: Heavy Isles struggling to tread water. On the bubble. |
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Washington Adds: Edmundson (ld), Pacioretty (lw) Subtracts: C. Brown (rw), Irwin (ld), Sheary (lw), C. Smith (c) Re-ups: Fehérváry (ld) Unsigned: Hagelin (lw) Skinny: Caps banking on kids and healthy seasons from Pacioretty and Nicklas Backstrom. Lotsa luck. Bubble team. |
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Columbus Adds: Provorov (ld), Severson (rd) Subtracts: Bayreuther (ld), Pederson (c) Unsigned: Berni (ld), Hutchinson (g) Skinny: Blue Jackets bolstered ‘d’ with pre-draft deals. Third overall pick Adam Fantilli was a huge get. A step away from playoff contention. |
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Philadelphia Adds: Hathaway (rw), Petersen (g), Poehling (c), M. Staal (ld), Walker (rd) Subtracts: Hayes (rw), Lemieux (lw), J. van Riemsdyk (lw) Re-ups: N. Cates (lw), York (ld) Unsigned: Bellows (lw), Braun (rd), Frost (c) Skinny: Philly added depth pieces and cut loose some vets. Heading in the right direction but still a long way to go. |
THE ATLANTIC
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Boston Adds: J. Boqvist (c), P. Brown (c), M. Geekie (c), Lucic (lw), Mitchell (rd), Regula (rd), Richard (c), Shattenkirk (rd), J. van Riemsdyk (lw) Subtracts: Bertuzzi (lw), Clifton (rd), N. Foligno (lw), Hall (lw), Hathaway (rw), Orlov (ld), Reilly (ld) Re-ups: Lauko (c) Unsigned: Bergeron (c), Frederic (c), Krejci (c), Nosek (c), Swayman (g) Skinny: Holy turnover, Batman! Recent additions make the B’s older and slower. Season (and playoff berth) could hinge on Bergeron and Krejci returning. |
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Toronto Adds: Bertuzzi (lw), Domi (c), Gambrell (c), Klingberg (rd), Reaves (rw) Subtracts: Acciari (c), Bunting (lw), E. Gustafsson (ld), Holl (rd), Kallgren (g), Kerfoot (c), O’Reilly (c), L. Schenn (rd) Unsigned: Aston-Reese (rw), Simmonds (rw) Skinny: Like the Bruins, the Leafs experienced significant turnover. Thanks to their talented core and high-profile adds, pencil them into the postseason picture. |
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Tampa Bay Adds: Archibald (rw), de Haan (ld), Glendening (c), Sheary (lw) Subtracts: Bellemare (c), Cole (ld), Colton (c), Killorn (c), Maroon (lw), Perry (rw) Unsigned: Elliott (g), Jeannot (lw) Skinny: Turnover seems to be the theme for the division. Lightning bled off grit, leadership and strength down the middle. Like the Bruins, could be significantly diminished. |
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Florida Adds: Asplund (lw), Ekman-Larsson (ld), Kulikov (ld), Lorentz (lw), Mikkola (ld), Reilly (ld), Rodrigues (c), Stolarz (g) Subtracts: Duclair (lw), Gudas (rd), Hornqvist (rw), Lyon (g), G. Smith (rw), M. Staal (ld) Re-ups: Denisenko (lw) Unsigned: E. Staal (c), White (c) Skinny: Again, turnover city, albeit mostly around the edges. The Cats should be in the thick of the playoff prowl. |
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Buffalo Adds: Clifton (rd), E. Johnson (rd), Tokarski (g) Subtracts: Hinostroza (c) Re-ups: Jost (c), Clague (ld) Unsigned: Anderson (g) Skinny: Despite potential Achilles heel in goal, the Sabres are young and uber-talented. Guaranteed to snap 12-season playoff drought. |
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Detroit Adds: Compher (lw), DeBrincat (rw), Fischer (rw), Gostisbehere (ld), Holl (rd), Kostin (lw), Lyon (g), Reimer (g) Subtracts: Hagg (ld), Hellberg (g), Kubalik (lw), Nedeljkovic (g), Oesterle (ld), Zadina (rw) Re-ups: Lindstrom (rd), Luff (rw) Unsigned: Chiasson (rw), Erne (lw), Suter (c), Veleno (c) Skinny: Addressed a lot of needs. In year five of the Yzerplan, the Wings may finally break through and land a playoff berth. |
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Ottawa Adds: Korpisalo (g), Kubalik (lw), MacEwen (rw) Subtracts: P. Brown (c), DeBrincat (rw), Gambrell (c), Gauthier (rw), Talbot (g) Re-ups: Brannstrom (ld), Hamonic (rd) Unsigned: Brassard (c), Holden (ld), Watson (lw) Skinny: Boasting a talented young core and a new goalie, the Sens should be in the hunt. Depth issues may hold them back. |
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Montreal Adds: Newhook (c) Subtracts: Belzile (c), Drouin (c), Richard (c) Re-ups: Harvey-Pinard (lw) Unsigned: Dadonov (rw), Tierney (c), Ylonen (rw) Skinny: Another season in the cellar for les Habs. But a bright future lies just around the bend. |
THE VERDICT
According to my very subjective opinion, three teams from the Metro (Carolina, New Jersey and the Rangers) are a lock to make the postseason. Ditto Toronto and Buffalo from the Atlantic. Maybe Florida, too.
Although improving, I think Columbus, Philadelphia, Ottawa and Montreal fall into the also-ran category.
That leaves no fewer than six teams to slug it out for the two wild card spots, including three recent Stanley Cup champions and last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winner.
If, and it’s a sizeable IF, the Pens can stay reasonably healthy, I think we’ll finish fourth in the Metro ahead of the Islanders and Caps.
It’s the competition from the Atlantic that has me concerned. Although both teams appear to be significantly diminished at this stage, former heavyweights Boston and Tampa Bay should still be in the wild-card chase. And this could very well be the year the Red Wings emerge from the pig pile to snag a wild-card berth or even a slot in the top three Atlantic finishers.
So what are our chances? I think we were extremely lucky to get a virtually injury-free season from our top six last year. I wouldn’t bank on that happening this time around. The lack of a third-line center who can step up and provide offense in the wake of injuries (Dubas’ one major oversight) may ultimately prove to be our undoing.
As much as I hate to write it, when all is said and done and the final regular-season puck is dropped, I think the Pens will once again be on the outside looking in.
Rick & The Other Rick
I also believe the lack of scoring in the bottom 6 can be contributed to Sullivan’s
system. Sullivan is so locked in on puck possession that their never seems to
be a player moving into a scoring area. I think that’s the reason he loved
Simon and Aston Reese but neither player could put the puck in the net but
they always had good possession numbers. The other problem IMO is we don’t
have a pyhsical or net presence in our bottom six and we loose a ton of one on
one board battles. If you’re not willing to go with bigger more physical players
then you need an SOB like Hornquist. We have neither. Going back to the original
question are we a playoff team? We’re definitely on the bubble but never under
estimate the Captain “Sidney Crosby”. especially if we add Karlsson.
Hey Rick,
“As much as I hate to write it, when all is said and done and the final regular-season puck is dropped, I think the Pens will once again be on the outside looking in.” As of today I would agree with you that other teams look better than we do today….. but I believe Dubas is not finished building his team.
Two days ago information came out of San Jose about the Pen’s offer for Karlsson. Dubas offered Jeff Petry, Ty Smith, Sam Poulin and a first round pick in 2024 ( top 5 protected ) and a third Round in 2025. San Jose will retain 4.5 million dollars so our cap hit for EK is 7 million dollars for 4 years. If we win the Cup in 2024 or 2025 the third round pick in 2025 gets upgraded to a first round.
One of the reasons for the delay the reporter states is the OConner arbitration case, that once it is over, it will trigger another Buy Out window for the Penguins.Then if need be they can Buy out any dead wood that may be necessary..
Plus the article states that this is about WHERE EK wants to play as he ultimately has the say if it is Pittsburgh or Carolina. Local sources in Nova Scotia say it is Pittsburgh.
Furthermore I believe Dubas will continue right up until next February trade deadline to move players and try to make us better play off team. Rust, Guentzel,Casey DeSmith, POJ….anybody not named Crosby,Malkin or Letang will be looked at. Even Jarry come next January if the deal made sense.
So I remain hopeful my friend that Dubas is well aware or the two year deadline he has to get us to the promised land.
Cheers
JIM
Jim
Like you I have faith in Dubas – I’m just hoping he’s not operating under the
spell of Sullivan. Sully made the statement prior to Free Agency that the
Pen’s need to go cheap and fast and it looks like with the depth pieces we
added thats definitely the route we’ve taken. I’m keeping my fingers crossed
that he continues to shape the team over the next several month’s.
Hope your well.
Thanks Mike
I am actually doing quite well health wise given the situation.
It appears I am going to be around much longer than I expected so
now I have no excuse not to write more.
I appreciate all your well informed comments you make on the PP site.
All the best to you and your family.
Cheers
Jim
Hello Jim,
So glad to hear you’re doing well all things considered. Keep pushing forward, my friend!
I remain hopeful as well. I may not agree with every move Dubas makes, but I think he’s smart and capable and he’s got a plan. Nor is he afraid to roll the dice.
Kind of reminds me of a young Jim Rutherford.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Interesting stuff Rick. We have talked around this subject several times off-line.
I am going to wait a little longer before I really go on record with this discussion. Every year is different and players have ups and downs. Teams rosters always change. And there have been coaching changes as well. There are lots of moving parts.
First, barring a coaching change in Pgh, the bottom 6 will still not score much. The problem isn’t the players, it is the system. Think to what Gretzky said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” When the morons running this team are stuck in opposite world, asking Defensmen to drive the Offense and the Forwards to cover the Points and front of their own net the Forwards won’t score. Even the mount Rushmore of Hockey (Mario, Orr, Howe, and Gretzky) cannot score if they don’t get a chance to shoot the puck and they wouldn’t score many Goals covering for wayward Petterssons Dumoulins, POJs, Ruttas, Rhuwedels, Petrys, – even Letangs or should the rumor mill prove true, Karlssons.
Second, for this team to be a playoff team, Jarry will have to do something he has yet to do in his career, play well after 22 games.
Third, as you and I have discussed multiple times, Crosby, Malkin, Letang, (and Karlsson?) will need to play near 82GP. I would love to see what the odds makers in Vegas would give for that alignment of planets, two seasons in a row with those 4 dinosaurs playing that many games.