Brayden Yager: Draft Steal? Or Overreach?

Well, the Penguins got to actually draft themselves a first-round pick. Probably the only thing that ol’Hexy boy got right was keeping our first rounder.

So how is the kid? Any good? Well according to Penguin fan internet experts, the answer is no he’s an overreach small skilless nothing burger apparently. Notice I didn’t say anything about actual “experts”.

I’m going to start this off by saying if you think because Brayden Yager was rumored to go around 18th to 25th that means he’s an automatic bust. Well, you don’t know anything. You only know what you read online and how you “think” a team should draft and who and where and why. Well, hell why don’t you just send in your application then?

In actuality scouting reports had him all over before the draft with no true consensus, the highest was 7th and the lowest was 20th.

If a team reaches on a player there is a reason, for example, the GM master Yzerman selected Moritz Seider at 6th overall in 2019 when he was projected to go 15 – 20. Wouldn’t you know that Detroit fans lost their minds as if they knew who should have been drafted more so than Yzerman and his scouts! Well… well… aren’t they happy now.

To sum that point up, yes… the scouts know better than Billy Bob Joe on the couch.

So as someone who tries to follow upcoming talent as much as possible, I’ll try to give Penguin fans a better picture of our new talent.

Size (A Issue?)

I’d like to start by saying stop the silliness about his size, he’s 5’11. Wow because he’s only an inch away from 6’0 that makes him a toddler I guess? I don’t think so.

Now he does only weigh 166 lbs (170 lbs rounded), which isn’t terrible considering Elias Pettersson came into the league at 6’2 and 160 lbs.

Pettersson said in his draft year “My style of play isn’t to have big muscles. It isn’t my weight that got me here. I think those questions will get answered during the season. They said I should put on muscle. I am stronger this year.”

Well, Petty Boy, it in fact did matter as he got injured his first three seasons. He’s since bulked up from 160 lbs to 176 lbs and now has played two 80 game seasons in a row.

The point I’m getting at here is Yager at 5’11 and 166 lbs is not terrible in comparison to someone like Pettersson who weighed less than Yager his first year but also had 3 inches on him. Since Pettersson gained some weight he’s only missed 4 games, and he only had to add 16 lbs. (I use “only” loosely there as I know how hard it is to gain weight on a slim frame.)

If Yager hits 175 lbs to 180 lbs, on a 5’11 frame by the time his first season rolls around, that’s some solid size. For perspective, the Penguin’s one and only “Sid the Kid” is 5’10 – 200 lbs and Crosby never comes across as small out there.

One last point here, there seems to be this misconception from hockey fans out there that “The league is big now” and “Big” seems to be referring to mostly height. Sure height can help with stick reach and acceleration but it has nothing to do with toughness, if you’re 6’4 but only 165 lbs then you’re twizzler out there, ready to be split to pieces if someone even grazes you.

It’s more about height to weight ratio, with examples being Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault at 5’9 – 183 lbs or Alex DeBrincat at 5’7 – 166 lbs. At those heights, those guys are built, and both can play a feisty game, I see neither getting bodied off the puck I see the opposite more often. Both also play most of their games DeBrincat has actually played 4 full seasons out of his 6 years so far and one of those was a 70 game season, he only missed a large portion of games in only one season in 20-21. DeBrincat can even lay the body on really well. So the harping on size isn’t as large a deal as some think.

Skill (Bust or Elite?)

Now let’s get down to the good stuff huh? The skill, what can Brayden Yager bring?

There was a look of glee on GM Kyle Dubas’s face as if he just walked out of the bank with a million dollars while everyone else got a thousand. Well, maybe that’s because he might have. I don’t think I’d go as far as to say it was the steal of the draft as this draft was absolutely loaded but it will most likely be one of them.

Awards

We can start with how Brayden Yager was 2022 “CHL Rookie of the Year”. So he now shares that award with a few NHL players you might of heard of like Patrick Kane, John Tavares, and Penguins own Sidney Crosby.

Yager also was awarded in 2022 the “Jim Piggott Memorial Trophy” which is awarded to “The WHL’s player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition.” Which in the previous year was awarded to none other than 1st overall boy wonder Connor Bedard…so yea, Yager is sharing some really good company already. Some other honorable mentions of Jim Piggott Memorial Trophy winners are Dylan Guenther, Dylan Cozens, Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Yager also won “Brad Hornung Memorial Trophy” which is awarded WHL’s most sportsmanlike player.

But awards aren’t everything for example, another winner of CHL Rookie of the Year was dazzling superstar Nail Yakupov……HA yikes. Well in fairness busts on that award list are the exception rather than the rule, and Yakupov was really good, he just didn’t have the work ethic which was the biggest worry of scouts. Yager, on the other hand, is the complete opposite, which we will get to later.

Shooting

So let’s look outside awards. What made Brayden Yager pop on every scout’s list was his wicked wrister, and I do mean wicked. Yager’s shot was so good that in his Rookie year it was considered “Elite” at the NHL level. Hence why he put up 34 goals in his 21-22 season at 17 years old.

To give an example of how rare a shot and even rarer his wrist shot is, there are only a handful of players currently in the NHL that have an elite wrist shot, and two of them happen to be in Vancouver. That would be Brock Boeser and Elias Petterson (Another reason I brought up Petterson for comparison earlier.) As well as a former Penguin, a certain hot dog eating savant, and multi cup winner Phil Kessel.

It was noted during training camp by Dejan Kovacevic of DK Daily sports that every time Yager fired off a shot Sullivan would look over at Dubas as if to say “Are we sure this kid isn’t ready?”.

Yager right now…has the best wrist shot in the NHL. It’s that good, and yes that includes 1st overall Bedard and also one man NHL showstopper McDavid.

“The puck absolutely explodes off his stick, no matter how compromised his body positioning appears to be during release. He rips it off either leg in just about way: two-touch, one-timer, and catch-and-release. His inside leg wrister is his signature shot, tipping his weight over his outside edge while somehow keeping his chest up and exploding through the shot. He takes every single puck directly into his shooting pocket, prepared for the next play. -EliteProspects“

Skating

Now his skating is decent/good, definitely not elite, however his acceleration is really good, he is practically gliding.

His ability to slow down once accelerating is elite, as a matter of fact, not many players can slow down as efficiently as Yager can. That’s a really good skill to have as it allows more opportunity to read the ice and make the best IQ play, or just to slow a play down altogether which can really throw the opposition’s defense off.

You’ve probably seen something similar done by McDavid, where he intentionally slows things down from high speed looking for either the space or a teammate, before bursting back into action.

“Side note: I’m using a high skill player like McDavid as an example of certain elite NHL ready skills Yager currently has, he is in no way close to McDavid in any way possible (outside of Yagers wrist shot) and never will be….just to be clear.”

I expect his skating to improve a lot by the time he’s in the NHL, and once he gains weight he’ll have even more strength in his legs, and I think we will all be impressed by his speed and skating by then.

Passing/Playmaking/Stick-Handling

Yager is in fact not even close to as good as most playmakers in the NHL at creating space, but he is a really good passer, which he wasn’t before. Something he literally improved in a season to round out his game, and he was able to improve it so much in only a year because of his awareness of holes in his game plus having that incredible work ethic.

So in short his passing is getting close to elite, it’s just not really creative at all.

Stick Handling is fairly basic most of the time, not as good as his draft classmates like Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, and Nate Danielson. It’s not bad by any means but sort of pales in comparison.

He has shown small instances of being really good at being flashy with his stick handling but it’s not the norm, so it might be there but not something he’s focusing on as of now, which would make sense based on his personality.

He is really good at protecting the puck when driving to the net,and can skate on those edges well while holding onto the puck.

Hockey IQ/Compete

This is the part of Yager’s game he tried to work on the most this year, focusing on knowing how to be a elite 200-foot player rather then just being a great shooter, saying himself he was trying to model his game after Sidney Crosby, a good player to model after I must say.

He does know where to be on both ends of the ice, but defensively he’s a little inconsistent, one moment he’s a feisty puck battler or aggressively getting in tight on opponents forcing them to make a play and swatting his stick to take away chances, then other times he’s lost in no man’s land staring at the lights of the arena.

I’m cutting him slack here, as this concept is new to him, he was the “Just shoot the puck” guy and now he’s the everything on both ends of the ice guy.

So why the draft drop?

So if his shots are so elite why did scouts have him lower in the draft?

Well, the simple reason I originally thought, was his goal totals went down from 34(G) in 21-22, to 28(G) in this 22-23 season. When I originally watched him I thought he was a pure shooter, when I glanced at his stats for this year I figured he wasn’t improving that much.

Shame on me, I didn’t get to watch him that much as with the scouts I got captivated by all the other players, and Yager sort of got left at the wayside.

When the Penguins drafted him I had to go back and study his last year. Now I know, the shots still there and as beautiful as ever, but he sacrificed some goals to build out his game, and not many players would be willing to do that. Says a lot about Yager as a player and as a person.

But in actuality, the original draft consensus among some scouts and reporting last year was that the draft was going to go in this order

1st: Connor Bedard

2nd: Matvei Michkov

3rd: Brayden Yager

Yes, at one point it was thought that Yager would be taken 3rd overall in the draft, this changed as 22-23 seasons began, and the top 10 became crowded with all the talent, and with everything in Russia Michkov dropped in rank as well.

So in the WHL 22-23 season, Brayden Yager was 7th in PPG(Points Per Game) at 1.16 with notable Connor Bedard at #1 with a staggering PPG of 2.51 and Zach Benson at #3 with a PPG of 1.63. But amazingly in the playoffs, Yager turned it up to 11/10 where he was second in PPG at 1.60 with only Connor Bedard ahead in first. With 16 points total in the playoffs, 6(G) – 10(A) for Brayden Yager in 10 GP, and 10(G) 10(A) in 7 GP for Connor Bedard. Not too bad at all.

(Side Note: Goodness Bedard is a monster, had to say that.)

Overall

Okay so what’s Yager look like in the NHL what would be my final projection. Well it’s actually hard to pin down, because it all comes down to his work ethic on improving his weakness, luckily one of his strengths is being aware of his flaws as well as having a great work ethic. (Unlike formely mentioned dud Nail Yakupov)

I would say if I were shooting low, I would say he would end up Brendan Gallagher (50-55 pts a season with 25-30 goals). If I were to try to be more realistic, I’d say a Carter Verhaeghe, (60-70 PTS a season with 25-40 goals) maybe ocasionally hitting 80 PTS.

But if we go high, if he puts in the work I could see him being all the way up to a Teemu Selanne, maybe not having a 132 point season like him but I could definitely see something like averaging 80+ with the occasional 100 point season. 

Maybe the answer is in the middle, he reminds me a lot of Brayden Point who was also a fellow Moose Jaw Warrior.

Whatever the case may be, he will come to the NHL and he will score, you may not get a superstar but you will get in the end at least someone who can put the puck in the back of the net. A star may be lurking, but it’s all in Yager’s hands what he wants to do, as the foundation is there. 

Penguins prospect pool already looks better, now having Owen Pickering(D), Joel Blomqvist(G), Tristan Broz(C), Samuel Poulin(LW), and now Brayden Yager. 

Yagers future in a Penguin sweater may not be as far as you think, possibly even a year.

I think the Penguins future may not be as dire as it might seem, Pickering, Blomqvist and Yager hmmm…maybe a new core 3 is on the way? 

I think it just might.