Does Shot Volume Drive the Penguins’ Success?

I’ve had an idea banging around in the back of my noggin for a while now. One that flies in the face of conventional wisdom when it comes to puck possession and metrics such as Corsi.

Namely, our Penguins success isn’t necessarily driven by shot volume. That more isn’t necessarily better.

Don’t get me wrong. As a rule it’s better to have the puck on your stick than not, especially in the offensive zone. But going strictly by memory, it seems to me we lost a fair amount of games going back to last season that we dominated in terms of shot activity. A notion further reinforced by the fact that we’ve endured three of those games only recently.

Against the Blues on Saturday night we piled up a ridiculous 83-45 edge in shot attempts, yet lost 4-2. Same thing with the previous contest against the Red Wings. We held an equally massive 71-47 advantage in shot attempts and lost 6-3.

Tuesday night against the Stars? We were up by a 74-62 count in shot attempts, yet lost 4-1.

Curiosity piqued, I decided to do some digging…and put my memory to the test. I tracked shot volumes and scoring chances for 2022-23 and the current season to see how they related to our results.

Shot Attempts

In my mind, the more rubber we send the other way, the more we expose ourselves to counterattacks and odd-man breaks. I contend we’re more effective when we play a more controlled, counterpunching style like we did in our victory over Calgary back on October 14. A style that maximizes the counterstrike ability of our aging but still gifted core.

The numbers back me up…sort of. Last season when we had the better of the shot attempts our record was 25-19-2, versus 15-12-9 when we didn’t. Better…but not by much.

This season? We’re 1-3 when we hold the high ground in shot attempts, 1-1 when we don’t.

Nor does the sheer volume of shot attempts seem to have an especially favorable effect on outcome. Last season when we had 70 shot attempts or more our record was a pedestrian 13-11-1. Under 70 shot attempts, 27-20-10.

This season we’re 0-4 when we attempt 70 shots or over. We’re 2-0 when we’re under 70.

Again, which would suggest that a less frenzied, more disciplined style might be beneficial. 

Shots on Goal

Unlike shot attempts, there was a stronger connection to winning when we had the edge in actual shots on goal. Last season we were 28-16-1 when we had the better of the shots on goal, 12-15-10 when we didn’t. This season we’re 1-4 when we have the edge, 1-0 when we don’t.

Scoring Chances

Results tied to scoring chances were surprisingly fair-to-middling. Yes, we had a better record last season when we had the edge in scoring chances (25-17-3) than when we didn’t (15-14-8). But not to the extent one might think.

This season we’re 1-4 when we have the edge in scoring chances, 1-0 when we don’t.

High-Danger Changes

Ah…the sweet spot. We were 31-18-4 last season when we held the advantage in high-danger chances, and 9-13-7 when not.

In keeping with our upside-down season so far, we’re 1-4 when we have the edge in high-danger chances, 1-0 when we don’t.

Bottom line? It’s more about quality than quantity when it comes to scoring opportunities and success. Which supports coach Mike Sullivan’s assertion (and mine) that we need to do a better job of breaching the prime scoring areas instead of firing pucks from the perimeter.

He’s Back

When the Pens bought out the final three seasons of Jack Johnson’s contract, it appeared the likeable defenseman’s NHL career might be over. Much maligned in these parts due to his poor metrics, Johnson signed with the Rangers in ’20-21 but missed most of the season due to injury.

The following season JJ attended Colorado’s training camp on a PTO. To the surprise of many, he carved out a niche and filled a valuable supporting role with the eventual Stanley Cup champs.

After signing with the Blackhawks in the summer of 2022, Johnson returned to the Avs at the trade deadline last season. He’s currently skating alongside Josh Manson on the third pairing and serves as one of the team’s primary penalty killers.

For more on the popular ex-Pen, make sure you read Seth Rorabaugh’s heartwarming article over the Trib.

Fun Fact

Johnson and current Pen Jeff Carter were centerpieces in a blockbuster trade back in 2012 that sent the latter to the left coast and brought the former east to Columbus.

He’s Out?

When fellow Pooper Caleb DiNatale first informed me the Pens had sent Radim Zohorna back to the Baby Pens yesterday, I was completely stunned.

We couldn’t be that dumb, could we? After all, Big Z had scored a goal in his first game back and had performed very well. In the process, compiling some off-the-chart metrics, such as an expected goals for percentage of 80.98 in 5v5 play!

Then details of the transaction began to trickle in and my blood pressure returned to acceptable levels.

For a better explanation than I could ever muster, be sure to read Pensburgh’s account.

The ‘net’ effect of the shuffling (pun intended)? Journeyman Magnus Hellberg will replace Alex Nedeljkovic (placed on LTIR) as our backup goalie on an emergency basis. The better to avoid being exposed to waivers. And Big Z will maintain his spot in the lineup.

Thank goodness.

This just in. The Pens have also recalled veteran forward Vinnie Hinostroza. With two goals and four points in five games, the 29-year-old speedster is currently tied with Sam Houde for the Baby Pens scoring lead.

Does his presence mean a certain 38-year-old forward will be dining on press box nachos tonight?