• Thu. Nov 21st, 2024

If I were Kyle Dubas…

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ByCaleb Di'Natale

Dec 8, 2023

To kick things off, it’s important to clarify that I’m certainly not saying I know better than Kyle Dubas, and this piece won’t be a “Kyle Dubas must do this or else he’s a bad GM” kind of article. While our hockey perspectives align to a certain extent, it’s crucial to acknowledge that we’re distinct individuals, and I don’t have insights into Dubas’s current thoughts or plans at the moment. Although our hockey philosophies may share common ground, it’s essential to recognize the inherent differences between us as individuals.

However, one thing I can confidently assert is that Kyle Dubas is undoubtedly brewing up something. Known for his bold, swing-for-the-fences approach, he manages to strike a balance by combining patience with calculated moves.

Yet, with the present state of the Pittsburgh Penguins, patience is wearing thin, and pivotal decisions loom, especially following the upcoming game against the Florida Panthers. A victory would leave the Penguins with a record of 12-11-3. While this may not be disastrous, considering the tight competition in the Metro with regards to points, it falls short of being commendable. The precarious balance hinges on the edge of a knife, with a couple more defeats and a few extra victories for another team potentially spelling the descent of the Penguins, akin to the fate of the Titanic.

Regardless of how you analyze it, discounting those consolation points, the Penguins essentially stand at 12-15, and relying on consolation points can only be a temporary solution.

If they succumb to the Panthers (which seems probable), their record would plunge to 11-12-3, or effectively 11-16, an alarming prospect. So, where does one go from there?

Well, this article will be more of a think piece of what I might personally do or try, I really put myself in Dubas’s shoes to think what can I do to help the Penguins in their current situation.

Here are the problems and or situations currently effecting the Penguins, of which there are many. Crosby still wants to win, FSG wants to win now, you re-signed all the old core to “Keep the band together,” you acquired ten million dollar 100 point d-man Eric Karlsson, you extended Jarry to a long-term deal, you signed Graves to a lengthy contract, the team is old, the power play is a disaster, and well then there is…Jeff Carter (Shudder).

What does all that mean? You’re playing to win with who you signed and the length, and you also stink in a lot of crucial ways, can’t bail now can we? Nobody is going to pay out big for Malkin or Letang and if you even did move them, Crosby is not going to be happy and FSG would tell you no to that idea anyway.

Being in Dubas’s shoes undeniably presents a challenging scenario. However, it’s not an insurmountable task; after all, the Boston Bruins have successfully navigated such situations for over two decades. Their adept execution of high-risk, high-reward “retooling” strategies has been a hallmark of their sustained success, with only two playoff misses in that span. Boston’s proficiency in maximizing the value of draft picks, coupled with strategic moves in free agency, has been a key factor—though it’s worth noting that their trade record isn’t flawless to say the least. (“Cough” Joe Thornton Trade.)

Trades

Making significant moves is the primary option; there’s really no alternative. The current group has proven ineffective for the past five years, and maintaining the status quo is no longer a viable choice. It’s imperative to initiate changes that will shake up the team, injecting a new dynamic and hopefully steering the course toward a more successful trajectory.

The initial move would be Jake Guentzel. Despite the common sentiment that he’s the only player that meshes well with Crosby, it’s crucial to recognize the need for change after five years of limited success. Guentzel holds the highest trade value, and considering he’s in the final year of his contract, it becomes a strategic move. If Dubas had intentions of re-signing or extending, it likely would have materialized by now. Really believe it’s a mistake to move him?

Well, must I mention again the five years of no success? Or that Guentzel will be turning 30? Thus, I think it’s time to move on now, while he’s hot and has the highest trade value.

Now of course I know Jake Guentzel has a modified no trade clause, but it’s possible Calgary isn’t on this list, or you just sit him down explain that the current roster is not working. Maybe he agrees maybe he does not, remember we’re just trying to work something out.

Addressing the team’s depth issue is paramount, and trading Guentzel could yield valuable returns. Acquiring two younger players, while not at Guentzel’s current level, provides versatility to slot into any of the bottom or top lines. This would bolster the team’s overall depth, addressing the current reliance on players who may be considered as glorified AHLers. By injecting youthful talent that’s a little more established but still yielding more potential, the team stands to benefit not only in the immediate future but also in building a foundation for sustained success.

Drew O’Connor has been a disappointment, and maybe he either isn’t an NHLer or he isn’t mentally ready. Radim Zahorna has fallen off the map, which is unfortunate because I really like him, Jansen Harkins is completely terrible and has no business at the NHL level, he plays like a chicken with his head cut off. And finally, I mean come on Joona Kappa….who?

So I would give Calgary a ring, and try to swing Guentzel to them to push them over the edge to the playoffs, and Guentzel could indeed complement Huberdeau effectively. In return I’d try to get two players back in Yegor Sharangovich and Dillon Dube. Both players highest point seasons are 46 for Yegor and 45 for Dube, so more than Drew’O Connor and Radim Zahorna combined.

Acquiring both 25-year-old and versatile players in Yegor Sharangovich and Dillon Dube not only adds experience but also addresses the team’s scoring needs. Their proven track record indicates the potential for increased production, especially with one of them playing alongside Crosby.

This not only bolsters the team’s offensive capabilities but also, importantly, this move aligns well with the team’s budget constraints, as the combined salaries of Guentzel, Sharangovich, and Dube are within a reasonable cap range being Jake Guentzel at $6,000,000, and Sharangovich at $3,100,000, Dube at $2,300,000.

Now don’t get excited, we don’t get extra cap out of this, we need to retain enough that it equals out as Calgary only has $16,901 in cap space. So both teams would essentially be at the same in cap. Maybe some more cap move players need to be involved, but I’m just working with the basic Ideas here.

Next, trade a pick and in addition either Rust or Rakell for Boone Jenner.

Again I am aware that Rust has a “no movement clause” so he would have to agree, which might not be likely considering how bad the Jackets are right now, but Rakell has a modified no trade clause, so perhaps that contract would be easier to move then Rust’s full no movement clause.

Now it may be difficult, as fellow Penguin Poop writer Rick Buker pointed out to me, to try and pry Columbus’s captain away. Hence why, we’re sending a pick back possibly two, (a sweetener). But he’s everything we need, great shot with a shoot first mentality, a gritty sand paper player, and smart. And he comes in at a great price of $3,750,000 for three years. So we also gain $1,250,000. Perhaps that could facilitate the earlier proposed deal with Calgary.

Absolutely, the focus should be on acquiring players who bring exactly what the Penguins need, particularly in the playoffs. Boone Jenner’s attributes, including a shoot-first mentality, grit, and what he could bring in the playoffs, make him a valuable asset to this current Penguins roster. While Rust and Rakell may contribute more points, the intangibles Jenner brings, could prove crucial.

Additionally, considering the current performance of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who let’s be honest, they stink. There’s a realistic chance to negotiate a favorable deal. Acquiring Jenner would not only address immediate needs but also enhance the team’s chances in the postseason, aligning with the Penguins’ aspirations for success.

This trade not only provides the Blue Jackets with immediate roster improvement by giving Johnny Gaudreau a good winger and possibly sparking him again but also offers additional draft picks for their rebuilding efforts. The proposal considers both immediate and long-term gains for Columbus, making it a compelling offer that warrants serious consideration. The Penguins’ willingness to engage in discussions aligns with the Blue Jackets’ needs, potentially paving the way for some really constructive negotiations for both teams.

In short, I don’t see a world where Columbus does not hear you out or consider it.

Now so far, if all party’s agree and all works out, we have Yegor Sharangovich, Dillon Dube, and Boone Jenner. That makes the Penguins a lot better already from my eyes.

But there is still one piece missing….

The Final Piece.

Yes. You’re seeing that picture correctly, and yes I am suggesting that.

Bring back…Phil. The Thrill. Kessel.

He may not be 90-point Kessel anymore, but he will play better and possibly have a bit of a resurgence being reunited with Sidney Crosby.

He and Boone Jenner would help save this pass, pass, and pass power play. And you know that he already works with this group. Both him and Jenner have shoot first mentalities, and aren’t afraid to get the greasiest of goals.

Right now the power play is a bunch of playmaking pass-first mentality players, so spread them out and run two power plays. Or run the first with Kessel, Jenner, Crosby, Karlsson, Smith, two playmakers one down low with Crosby and one at the point Karlsson, two shooters in Kessel and Jenner, then the versatile Smith in there.

You can also sign Kessel to a cheap deal, something in the vacinity of $850,000 and again, he’s better then what you have, I also think the locker room (besides Malkin) would be happy to see him. This not only brings in a seasoned player but also potentially boosts team morale. Kessel’s proven abilities could certainly contribute positively, both on the ice and in the locker room, making him a valuable addition to the power play and the team as a whole.

Lines would look something like:

Sharangovich – Crosby – Kessel
Smith – Malkin – Jenner
Rakell/Rust – Eller – Dube
(Rust or Rakell on third whoever wasn’t traded)
Nieto (When Back) – Accari – Carter/Hinostroza

Absolutely, the proposed changes and additions significantly bolster the team’s competitiveness. Reintegrating Phil Kessel into the power play, alongside the inclusion of Erik Karlsson, recalls the successful dynamics of the team’s past while making it potentially deadly with Karlsson now the main head of the unit, as you would move the proverbial “too many chefs in the kitchen” in Malkin and Letang to the second unit. Jenner’s attributes of grit, leadership, size, and a shoot-first mentality address critical needs, providing a well-rounded and impactful presence.

The infusion of young, yet experienced, and remaining upside talent in Yegor Sharangovich and Dillon Dube adds depth and versatility to the roster. Their potential for growth further enhances the team’s overall trajectory. With these strategic moves, the team is not only more competitive in the present but also better positioned for sustained success in the future.

I would hope that Dubas is seeing what I see here, maybe I’m far off the mark here, and this is the delusional ramblings of some random sports writer on the internet (wink, it is.) But who knows, maybe I’m manifesting it to the universe.

Or maybe you hate all this and I just jinxed the Penguins! Whoops!

What are your thoughts?

6 thoughts on “If I were Kyle Dubas…”
  1. It’s time to look at turnovers per game ! It’s a possession game after all .
    Malkin though flashy at times turns the puck over so consistently, I wonder if he’s color blind .
    Latang just doesn’t have it any more, plays often as if players are just watching him skate around. Again turn over points to him as well .

    1. Hi Sean,

      You can’t score if you don’t have the puck, nor can your opponent score, if they don’t have the puck. So I agree somewhat with what you write, pay attention to the Gv s, but not as a stand alone stat. It really needs to be looked at in terms of Tk/Gv and how often you actually carry the puck. Furthermore, the number of Tk is also a strong indicator of desire to back check. A player can’t get Tk if they are passively watching the play.

      When I look at the stats I see Malkin, Graves, Letang, and Crosby lead the team in Gv at 5 on 5 (21, 18, 15, 14 respectively). When I look at the Tk s, at 5 on 5, of those 4 players I see Malkin, Crosby, Letang, and Graves have 22, 20, 11, and 5 respectively. Putting those numbers into ratios both Crosby and Malkin have positive Tk/Gv ratios 20/14 and 22/21 respectively, while Graves and Letang have the negative ratios (5/18 and 11/15 respectively).

      Therefore, I have no problem with Malkin and Crosby with their Gv, even though they sit in the top 4 of the team in Gv. Their numbers Gv s only reflect the amount of time they are lugging the puck, while their Tk s show that they are very active back-checking. In the end both Crosby and Malkin are on the positive side of the puck possession game

      Letang and Graves on the other hand are on the negative side of the puck possession game, with Graves significantly on the negative side.

      In Letang’s case, he is barely in the negative range, and since he is one of the few Penguins Defensemen with any heart and grit (and has shown to be a class guy), I will live with it. However, Graves, he is extremely underwater, hurting his team in the puck possession game.

      * I only look at the 5 on 5 numbers since most of the game is played under this condition and during special teams play you either will not have much time with the puck or no real opportunity to Tk the puck away, since you will already have it.

  2. Hey Caleb,

    Sorry it’s taken so long for me to respond…got buried at the gym today moving equipment around.

    First off, excellent article my friend! I love the way you write…extremely entertaining and thought-provoking.
    And I LOVE your idea about at least trying to pry Boone Jenner out of Columbus. I’ve always loved the way this guy plays and what he brings to the table. A forceful game that combines tons of toughness and grit with a scoring touch. A beast on faceoffs, too.

    To digress, I was a huge admirer of the CBJ teams from a few years back when they had guys like Jenner, Nick Foligno (who I’ve long coveted), Josh Anderson and, yes, even dirtbags like Brandon Dubinsky and Scott Hartnell. They were absolute murder to play against.

    Truth be told, if I were a GM I’d still build a team in the Jackets’ old image. Of course, I’d probably never win a Stanley Cup, but what the heck…lol.

    A few years ago I desperately wanted the Pens to acquire Sam Bennett, a Jenner-type player. There were rumblings at one time that he was on JR’s radar, but “Playoff Sam” wound up going to Florida where he was a physical, driving force in the Panthers’ run to the Cup Final last spring.

    Anyway, I agree wholeheartedly that we need a player (or two or three) of Jenner’s ilk.

    As far as Sharangovich and Dube are concerned, I like your thinking. We could sorely use an influx of young talent. I would agree, Guentzel might be our most marketable piece and may never have more value than he does at the present.

    I’m just not sure the Flames bite. They’re facing a mass exodus of marquee veterans like Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, among others. In my mind, they’re more apt to embrace a Chicago-style teardown than look to add a potentially pricey veteran, especially one who might be no more than a rental.

    But again, really like you’re thinking.

    Arizona is hot and seems poised to make a move. I think they’re possibly searching for established veteran talent to put them over the top. Jake might fit the bill. It would just be a matter of who we’d get in return.

    I’ve always coveted Lawson Crouse. Big (6’4” 215) power forward with hands. At 26, just entering his prime. Can’t imagine they’d part with him. Don’t know who else we might be able to get. (Crazy thought…Pittsburgh native Logan Cooley?)

    Oh…and I’m not averse to Phil making a Steel City comeback.

    Again, great stuff, my friend!

    Rick

  3. Hey Caleb,

    I know I texted you this AM that I would definitely read the article but probably wouldn’t reply, as I am tired of all of the Captain’s of all of the Titanic s, in the fullness of their hubris plowing forward, on their reckless, doomed course, not simply arguing with a voice of reason but clapping hands on their ears and across their eyes, reminiscent of Colonel Taylor’s trial scene from the original planet of the Apes movie so I will refrain from comment on most of your post.

    However, what I will post is this, if this were the old NHL, prior to OT, our Penguins record would be 10-11-4 right now.

    Just throwing that out there. Make of it what you will. I won’t cloud the Disney Fantasy with any reality for anyone.

    1. Hey Other Rick,
      I think you have your doomed ocean liners mixed up.
      If I’m not mistaken, it was the captain of the RMS Lusitania who plowed forward full steam ahead in hopes of grounding his ship off the shores of Ireland, in the process causing it to sink faster.
      Rick

      1. I am referring to the Captain of the Titanic whose Captain, Edward Smith, totally ignored the warnings of iceberg dead ahead and plowed into it because he refused to listen, he thought he knew it all, regardless of how many warnings (6, oddly the number of years I have been warning) of icebergs sited ahead of came in.

        And I am not referring to anyone in the Pens organization, who, few at best ever read anything I wrote. They have an excuse.

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