Hey all. As our Penguins emerge from the holiday break (and I battle through an unfortunate case of COVID), I thought I’d compile a quickie list of five reasons to be thankful…and five reasons to worry.
First, the good.
FIVE REASONS TO BE THANKFUL
Sidney Crosby
At age 36, Crosby is literally having a season for the ages (the aged, too). He’s tied for fifth in the league in goals with 19 and tied for second in even-strength goals with 15. A model of consistency, Sid’s tallied points in 25 of the Pens’ 32 games. He’s won a remarkable 60.5 percent of his faceoffs…a career-best. His level of commitment and attention to detail is astonishing. At times trying to drag us to a playoff spot single-handed, Sid’s done everything you could conceivably ask…and more. Enjoying a season worthy of MVP consideration.
Jake Guentzel
Following a sluggish start, likely the residue of off-season ankle surgery, Guentzel is once again filling the net on a regular basis. Jake’s got 14 goals on the season, including seven in his last 10 games. Like Sid a model of consistency, the tousle-haired winger has points in 25 of 32 games. With his smarts, cleverness and hand-eye coordination, not to mention considerable grit, the UFA-to-be has proven time and again he’s far more than an extension of Crosby. If he was 6’3” instead of 5’11”? Given his bulldog determination, magic hands and nose for the net, Jake would score 50 goals…easy.
Bryan Rust
Following a disappointing 2022-23 campaign when he tallied “only” 20 goals, Rust began this season as if shot from a cannon. He notched 10 goals in his first 18 games before cooling ahead of an upper-body injury that’s kept him out since early December. He literally throbs with grit, energy and intensity every time he steps on the ice. Too, Rusty seems to have regained a lost step, which makes me wonder if he was playing hurt last season. Leads the team with a plus-13.
Goaltending
Although they’ve been dinged up in recent outings, Tristan Jarry and newcomer Alex Nedeljkovic have been twin towers of strength between the pipes. Due in no small part to their combined efforts, the Pens are eighth in the league in fewest goals allowed and 10th in fewest goals allowed per game despite our often shaky team defense. Both have sparkled at times. Best of all, they seem to be pushing each other to greater heights while providing some friendly competition.
Marcus Pettersson
“The Dragon” has quietly evolved into one of the better stay-at-home defensemen in the league. Actually, stay-at-home is a misnomer. Pettersson does possess some offensive pedigree. He’s heady and distributes the puck well, with a feathery first pass. The only thing missing? A shot (nine career goals, none this season.) Still, he brings a little bit of everything to the table, including a penchant for blocking shots and a willingness to drop the gloves when the situation calls for it.
Honorable Mention
Noel Acciari and Matt Nieto would have made “the reasons to worry” list early on. But somewhere around Thanksgiving they began to establish themselves. No, they don’t score, not much anyway. However, Acciari’s in-your-face physicality has been more evident of late, and the PK rebounded the instant he came off IR. Nieto’s a plus-5 despite a ridiculously low percentage of offensive zone starts. While I’m at it, I like what I’ve seen of Valtteri Puustinen so far. Kris Letang was good-to-great early, but has since slipped back into his old high-risk, force-the-issue ways.
FIVE REASONS TO WORRY
Evgeni Malkin
When Malkin bolted from the starting blocks with eight goals and 17 points in 14 games, it looked like he’d discovered the fountain of youth at age 37, not to mention an uncanny sixth-sense chemistry with newcomer Reilly Smith. Alas, it was too good to last. The heretofore white-hot duo turned ice-cold overnight, begetting Geno’s slide into one of his turnover-strewn, east-west funks. Some have suggested moving the mercurial Russian to wing a la Jeff Carter, which would create a huge hole down the middle. Here’s hoping the big guy regains a semblance of his early season form. If not, we’ll be reserving early tee times come spring.
Ryan Graves
The first uncomfortable nudge I got concerning our marquee free-agent addition occurred this summer when I glanced at his JFresh WAR chart. A 41 percent overall WAR? A 39 percent defensive WAR? Yikes. That pretty much describes the player we received to a T, at least going by my eye-test. Actually, Graves hasn’t been the turnover machine I perceive him to be…he’s 40th among league defensemen with 21 of ‘em. Maybe it’s his gangly physique. But there’s a coltishness in his on-ice comportment that doesn’t inspire confidence.
Erik Karlsson
I wasn’t one of those folks who expected our blockbuster summertime addition to repeat his 25-goal, 101-point campaign from a season ago. However I felt, best-case scenario, EK65 might garner around 70 points while giving our power play a decided boost. Based on early returns, he projects to tally 15 goals and 56 points over a full 82-game slate. Certainly not bad output, but not the offensive windfall some might have anticipated. On the plus-side, despite his reputation for wobbly defense his metrics are uniformly good across the board. It’s just that the production hasn’t been there…especially on the power play.
Third-Pairing Defense (and Defense in General)
On a team with a number of glaring flaws, the third-defense pairing has emerged as our weak underbelly. Pick your poison. Veteran spare part Chad Ruhwedel, error-prone Pierre-Olivier Joseph, rugged rookie John Ludvig and no frills Ryan Shea all have fallen short of the mark. Actually, our defense in general has been far from airtight, which led coach Mike Sullivan to flip-flop Graves and Pettersson recently.
Power play
Following a horrific, month-long 0-37 skein, our power play recently righted itself with a 7-for-31 burst (a 22.6 percent conversion rate), thanks in no small part to the addition of Puustinen and a renewed emphasis on skating and movement. However, issues remain, including difficulty entering the zone and setting up and a nagging habit of slipping back into comfortable roles. Karlsson and Malkin, both of whom have a predilection for high-risk passes at the point, need to be kept in different galaxies if possible.
Dishonorable Mention
Ever since the Malkin line descended into the seventh level of Dante’s Scoring Inferno, our lack of scoring depth has been particularly acute. To illustrate the point, Sid and linemates Guentzel, Rust and most recently Rickard Rakell have combined for 44 of our 91 non-shootout goals, or 48 percent of our output. Geno and his most frequent linemates have half that many. Our bottom-six? Fuhgeddaboudit. With a less-than-robust 10 goals? That goes for our defense as well.
Hey Rick,
As the NHL emerges from their Christmas break, the average teams Pnts % is 0.555. In the old days, in the pre spectacle era of sports 0.500 could always be considered average. Now, in the NHL, there are many 3 point games with OTLs and SOLs.
Our Penguins, well, our Pnts % is 0.531, under the league average. If you convert that to school grade, fixing 0.555 as 75% our Penguins are still at a C- (71.8%).
Having said that Rick, I agree with you when you say thanks for Ned, but seriously Rick, start asking yourself the tough questions on Jarry. Jarry is 9-11-2 which translates into a 0.455 Pnts% or a D- at 61.5%, while Ned is 5-2-2 for a 0.600 Pnts%, or a B- at 81.1%. You need to start asking why Ned wins far more games, back-stopping the same defense, than Jarry.
Jarry is the biggest reason this team is below the league average in terms of Pnts% and why it is currently wallowing in 7th place in the Metro. If the Games Started were reversed, this team would still be in a good playoff position. Unfortunately the $5+ million Goalie for 5 years is killing this team.
Let’s see.
Jarry’s tied for 12th in save percentage and 12th in goals against average among the 71 NHL goalies who’ve appeared in at least five games. And he leads the league with four shutouts.
Not too shabby for a D- goalie… 🙂
Rick
Again Rick, if he is soooo good why is he sub 0.500 when Ned is 600?
The answer is simple, he is not a winner. He no shows every playoff year and has abysmal stats throughout his career down the stretch run. His HDSV% is among the worst in the league (37th 5-on-5/50th when looking at all situations). His stats are padded with MDS and LDS courtesy of solid D play in fron of him. When the game is on the line, he just isn’t there. He was gifted his last shut out in a game that the team could have simply gone without a goalie and still won. NYI only had 22 SOG. That would even have been less if there were 6 skaters on the ice.
Jarry has poor rebound control, commits too quickly, over-reacts, has no idea about playing his angles and is usually lined up on the body rather than the puck giving away half a net, makes poor decisions when playing the puck because he is always trying to score goals rather than preventing them. Any skater who would have tried to shoot into an empty net from above the red line in a 5 on 5 situation would have been benched for such a bone head play.
If Sully hadn’t finally switched to a much more defense game, this team would be farther down the standings and challenging for a top 5 pick. The D is insulating you buddy, Rick.
And that is the myth about stats, they don’t lie, either people honestly don’t know how to read them or dishonest types try to get you to look at the wrong stats.
When confronted with contradicting stats you have to reconcile them. When Jarry’s Pts% is well below his Sv% there is something else going on, The raw baseline stat of Sv% is now irrelevant and you have to tease out the variables that go into that generic stat and in Jarry’s case it doesn’t take to long to figure out that he just doesn’t win you any games, he just rides the bus.
Rick “Great article”
Just a few observations and my two cents for whatever that’s worth.
First our start with Crosby – He’s definitely playing great and when you factor in
nis age it’s remarkable. I am however disappointed with his wingers. Crosby is
currently 5 in goals scored but he’s 82nd in assists. Sometimes I think we accept
the numbers Crosby’s wingers put up but really are they acceptable??? Guentzel
is 31st in the league in goals playing every shift with Sid and always with the #1
PP unit. Just as a comparison – Boeser 24, Rienhart 19, Nelson 16, Vatrano 15 etc….etc….
I just feel with the way Crosby’s playing, and a legit finisher on both of his wings, he
would be sitting at 45 or 50pts. “Not to mention if the PP was producing”?? Rust being
injured is sort of his history – If I remember correctly he’s only played an entire season
once since entering the NHL. I know I’m being a little harsh with Guentzel, he has put
up several snipper type seasons when he remains healthy.
As for Karlsson I think as long as the Pen’s go without a net front presence his numbers
will take a hit. With his shot and a big body taking away the goalies eye’s he probably
has another 15pts. How many times have we heard former players say 9 times out of
10 if an NHL goalie can see it he’s going to stop it?? Also, I will say this – most players who
are new additions in previous years have struggled early with Sullivan system. Matheson
is a name that comes to mind.
As far as the power play goes I think first and foremost Malkin has to be removed from the
1st unit – his puck handing, passing and decision making are mind boggling to say the
least. Second, I know everyone’s excited about Puustinen but he has yet to score a goal
in seven games while playing on the second line and 1st PP unit – Rick, like you I do like his
skating ability and movement without the puck – hopefully these traits allow him to put
a couple of pucks past opposing goaltenders.
Couple more observations:
Reilly Smith “Zucker he’s not”!!
Ryan Graves – Your’s and mine worst nightmare – a big Defenseman that refuses to play
a physical brand of Hockey. (22) hits in 32 games played. At that pace he won’t sniff 100
hits for the season while playing 20 plus minutes per game. OUCH
Hope you had a great Christmas.
John Ludvig – Pen’s need to continue his development – he can be an asset.