We all know the most pressing needs facing new Penguins exec Kyle Dubas are the bottom six and goaltending. Unless it’s goaltending and the bottom six.
But what about the defense?
Assuming UFA Brian Dumoulin (and his $4.1 million cap hit) move on, here’s a cursory look at our blue line corps if no other changes are made.
| Left Defense | Age | AAV |
| Pettersson | 27 | $4.025 M |
| Joseph | 23 | $825 K |
| Smith | 23 | $863 K (RFA) |
| Friedman | 27 | $775 K |
| Right Defense | Age | AAV |
| Letang | 36 | $6.1 M |
| Petry | 35 | $6.25 M |
| Rutta | 32 | $2.75 M |
| Ruhwedel | 33 | $800 K |
Yikes. The group as a whole doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
On left side, Marcus Pettersson’s a solid second-pairing defenseman. But a top-pairing guy? Pierre-Olivier Joseph and Ty Smith can both skate and move the puck, but they’re weak, weak, weak in the battle areas and bring virtually zippo physicality and defensive acumen.
The right side is capable but aging. Due to injuries and misfortune, not to mention the pains associated with Jeff Petry and Jan Rutta adapting to new environs, the group as a whole didn’t add up to the sum of its parts last season.
It’s been suggested on other sites that Dubas try to deal either Petry or Rutta. Of the two, the latter would likely be easier to peddle due to his affordable cap hit, age and lack of restrictive clauses. It was then suggested the Pens fill the gap with Chad Ruhwedel.
Uh…thanks, but no thanks.
To digress, Ruhwedel did an admirable job filling a third-pairing slot in 2021-22. But last season he returned to his traditional seventh defenseman role and his play fell off sharply. In 47 games he was on the ice for 21 goals for 5v5 and 26 against, for a goals for percentage of 44.68. His expected goals for percentage…54.06.
I have another reason for nixing a Ruhwedel promotion. To my eye, our mix is stale. Chad’s been here for seven seasons and counting. Familiarity, as they say, breeds contempt. Time for some new blood, not the same old, same old.
Mark Friedman’s younger, faster, feistier and more versatile. He’s my No. 7 d-man.
Okay, back to my original thought. An upgrade (or two) are definitely needed on defense.
So who might Dubas get? Here are some potential targets among the crop of UFAs-to-be.
Among right-handed shots, Toronto’s Justin Holl could be on our radar for obvious reasons. The Minnesota native’s been a solid, affordable ($2 million AAV) presence on the Maple Leafs’ blue line for the past several seasons. He won’t wow you with his offense (18 points in ’22-23) but he’s got size (6’3” 197) and he’ll hit and block shots. In short, he plays a steady, stay-at-home game.
According to JFresh, he’d be an upgrade over Rutta (56% WAR vs 33% WAR).
If you’re seeking a little more flash and sizzle, Minnesota’s Matt Dumba could be an intriguing add. A former seventh overall pick of the Wild back in 2012, the 28-year-old combines wheels, offensive instincts and a cannon-blast of a shot into one tidy package. Although not overly large at 6’0” and 181 pounds, he throws some seismic hits. Kind of a poor man’s Kris Letang.
However, two red flags. Dumba’s output has steadily declined over the past several seasons (only four goals in ’22-23) and his expiring contract paid him $6 million per.
He ain’t worth all that. But if Dubas can get him at a reduced rate? Perhaps a worthy reclamation project.
In the safer bet department, a pair of Devils also make the list. On the right side, Damon Severson combines size (6’2” 205) with an offensive bent (two 11-goal seasons) and steady defensive play. Having endured some down years in Jersey, he’s fairly bomb proof.
Arguably the best of the free-agent bunch, the 28-year-old’s likely due a hefty raise over his current AAV of $4.167 million.
On the port side, Ryan Graves is up for a new contract. At 6’5” and 220 pounds, the 28-year-old is kind of a prime Dumoulin-plus. Although not a big hitter, he blocks shots and plays a steady brand of defense. With eight- and nine-goal seasons on his resume, a bit more offensive than Dumo.
He’d be a great add to the left side…if we can afford him. Like Severson, he’s in line for a significant pay increase over his current salary of $3.16 million.
Now for a couple reaches. Winnipeg’s Brenden Dillon isn’t a pending UFA…he’s got one more year to go at $3.9 million. But with the Jets looking to shake up their mix?
Dillon plays every bit as big as his size, which is considerable (6’4” 220). In addition to playing strong, stay-at-home defense, he hits and fights, and quite well. He’d provide the kind of physical presence we haven’t had on defense since…well…maybe never. Certainly since the days when bruisers Brooks Orpik and Deryk Engelland patrolled our blue line.
Dillon’s a leader, too (he wears an ‘A’ for the Jets).
The drawbacks are his age (32) and the fact that Mike Sullivan abhors fighters. But a guy can dream…
A last out-of-left-field option? Suggested by Other Rick, 2021 fifth-round pick Isaac Belliveau finished out his junior career with a strong season (11 goals, 46 points in 55 games to go with a plus-50 for Gatineau). While it may a considerable stretch to think he could make the leap from junior hockey to the NHL, he has size (6’2” 180), puck skills and plays with a bit of an edge.
The longest of long shots. But at the very least, a hopeful for down the road.
Rick
Our Defense is definitely a problem area and in dire need of a makeover. I want to
repeat something I said early in the season, that POJ, and Pettersson cannot be
in your top 6 Defenseman and even though I think Pettersson has improved they
both lose their value come playoff time.
We don’t have one Defenseman that make opponents pay for standing in front of
our goaltenders “SAD”. The closest thing we had was Jack Johnson and before him
Ian Cole.
Even though the Pen’s have a lot of holes to fill I think they should start with a physical
net front presence both offensively and defensively and then a 1 or 1A Goaltender.
Also, IMO it doesn’t matter if Jarry signs for 5mil or 3mil if his injury isnt correctable and
he can only play 2 games here and their we need to let him walk.
1) I agree with you on Friedman over Ruhlwedel
2) I like Dumba – Change of scenery is probably exactly what he needs.
3) Love Dillon and I think Dubas should try and swing something with the Jets. I wouldn’t
mind picking up Lowry as well but if we take Dillon (32) Petry has to be part of the deal.
4) As you probably knew Severson went to CBJ in a sign and trade.
5) Graves would be a nice pickup – NJ has some work to do cap wise – seven players are
currently eating up around 42% of their Cap and they have to sign Meier, Bratt, Haula,
Tatar, and Sharangovich etc….etc…….Meier should be at the 8-9mil range while Bratt will
probably be looking at 6.5 – 7.5mil – They will have to start thinking about extending
Mercer who will be in the last year of his deal.
6) I may even take another look at Miles Wood – a solid 4th line guy.
7) The Other Rick – Sullivan’s here to stay. He has to much leverage with FSG to even think
about leaving for another job. We have at least (3) more long years with Sully.
Hey Mike,
I am not going to argue with you over the fact that Sully is going no where. The FSG hasn’t had enough embarrassment yet to move on. Unfortunately by the time they do get fed up with him, he won’t have much value and another asset (albeit over-hyped asset) will have been wasted.
Also, 100% agreed Mike, Controlling both the O-Zone and D-Zone creases is priority 1.
The Other Rick
When if comes to Sullivan I’m in agreement with you – he has to go and it makes
me sick to my stomach that his relationship with new ownership will keep that from
ever happening. He’s has a job with the Pen’s until he decides to hang it up.
Sad but true.
Our only hope is that Dubas has the backbone to give Sullivan an ultimatum.
Hey Rick,
Interesting Piece!
I am not sure if there is any one position in need of fixing more than the other, once we get below the top 6 Fwds. The Bottom 6, the D, and Gs are all train wrecks.
Honestly, I am not sure that any changes in the Bottom 6, in terms of personnel will increase secondary scoring, at least not until the coaches get over their stupid ‘drive the O through the D’ strategy. There aren’t any players at all in the NHL that can score when they are covering the point for a D man jumping up and carrying the puck.
An interesting stat about are D, last season, is that even though Reirden and Sully’s strategy is to drive the O through the D, our Pens had among the lowest contribution to scoring from our D. Outsude of Letang and Belliveau, the rest of this D roster is expendable.
I am going to repeat myself, among the quickest repairs to this roster that can be enacted is the trading of (what appears on paper to be its best asset but is truly our biggest limitation) Mike Sullivan to NYR as the reports indicate interest exist and start with the asking price of the RFA rights to K’Andre Miller and Alexis Lefraniere, If they want him bad enough, I could get what I ask, a D-man and a middle to bottom 6 LW.
As for Dumba, maybe several years ago, but now, that’s a hard no.
In a rush, will continue this thought later.