For those of you who read the comment sections to our articles, there’s been somewhat of a goalie debate raging on PenguinPoop. A certain esteemed colleague has been extolling the virtues of newcomer Alex Nedeljkovic while panning the abilities of our long-time starter Tristan Jarry.
Although based on a variety of factors, tangible and intangible, statistical or otherwise, my friend’s opinion seems to be rooted in won-lost record. Through 23 starts Jarry has posted a sub-.500 record of 10-11-2, for a points percentage of .478. Nedeljkovic, on the other hand, has a spiffy 5-2-2 record, good for a sparkling .667 points percentage. Supporting my colleague’s assertion that the Penguins are (far) better off with Ned in net.
And, hey, I love Nedeljkovic, too. Razor-sharp and cat-quick, his rebound control is uncanny. Indeed, pucks seem to stick to him like lint to Velcro. He possesses a certain swagger and command that breeds confidence. And I do feel that he’s the better overtime and shootout goalie.
Still, that doesn’t make Jarry yesterday’s meatloaf…or the second-coming of the anti-Christ as my friend seems to assert. He took ownership of an inconsistent October by stating, “Obviously, I need to be better. That’s the bottom line.”
Since then, he’s been good to his word. Over his past 16 appearances Jarry’s posted a .924 save percentage, and that includes a rocky outing against the Maple Leafs a couple of weeks ago in which the entire team was pretty much a disgrace. His record during that stretch, 8-6-2.
He’s been aggressive, playing at the top of his crease where he’s at his best and challenging shooters.
Comparing some random stats reinforces that there really isn’t much to choose from between the two goalies.
| Stat | Jarry | Nedeljkovic |
| Save Percentage | .916 | .917 |
| Goals Against Average | 2.49 | 2.64 |
| Shutouts | 4 | 1 |
| Quality Starts Percentage | .609 | .667 |
A few other numbers to toss your way. Nedeljkovic has allowed three or more (non-shootout) goals in six of his 10 appearances. Jarry, 12 of his 23 appearances.
Pretty even-steven.
Did I mention Jarry leads the league in shutouts?
Too, as much as I love Ned, there’s an unsettling flip side lurking in his recent past. One I don’t especially like to think about and one we fortunately have yet to experience.
Following his brilliant rookie season with Carolina in 2020-21 when he led the league in goals against average (1.90) and save percentage (.932), Nedeljkovic endured back-to-back shaky seasons with Detroit. He was so porous the Red Wings gave up on him last season and sent him to Grand Rapids of the AHL.
I still have a particular game emblazoned in my mind from his time in the Motor City. March 27, 2022, at PPG Paints Arena. The Pens seared the Red Wings, 11-2, that afternoon. I remember thinking their starter, who surrendered our first seven goals before mercifully being yanked following 37 minutes of agony, couldn’t stop a beach ball.
Yep…Nedeljkovic.
None of this is meant to denigrate Ned. Just trying to provide some perspective. Blowout losses can happen to the best of ‘em.
My assertion? Jarry and Nedeljkovic make a terrific tandem and we’re fortunate to have them both. I especially like the fact that they provide some friendly competition and seem to push each other. I also like the fact that coach Mike Sullivan is willing to ride the hot hand, rather than locking his goalies into predefined roles. Which, again, serves to foster healthy competition.
As I see it, a win-win for our Pens.
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Your not wrong TOR but it's a team game and winning and losing involves everyone on the ice.
Jarry and Ned have both played very well...again I HATE analytics.
If you are a true hockey fan...watch the game and the players, don't rely on stupid specific stats ...watch how they players play....for me as a fan and a coach that's what I do.
Hey Pens4ever,
Agreed, it is a team game. So now you have to reconcile why Jarry has such a terrible Pts% while Ned has a pretty darn good one, back stopping the same team.
The eye test tells me Jarry is almost always off his angles, squaring up to the opponents body not the puck, sits deep in his net way too often, has terrible rebound control, takes unnecessary risks with the puck to try and score goals and get assists and has started to display Matt Murray's habit of gluing his glove hand to his leg pad.
The stat test tells me that Jarry has an abysmal HDSv%. When Jarry's teammates insulate him and push the shooters out to the mid and low danger areas, Jarry stat pads. When those same players need him to come up big against the high danger shots, Jarry is simply one of the worst in the league.
Now let's add in some historical factors, like Jarry's abysmal play down the stretch run where his Sv% hovers in the upp 0.800s and lower than 0.910 range and his complete disappearance in the playoffs (on those getting rarer playoff appearances).
When I used to coach, I had one player who always seem to get injured in the first period of every big game. Sound familiar. So, let's toss in Jarry's Beau Bennettesque fragility.
*Take note Rick B, I am still trying hard not to disclose dirty laundry.
So, won't argue that it is a team game, but will say that some players are losers' and some players are winners; Jarry has been a loser so far in his career. Maybe, some year he will pull a Bobrovsky and keep it together like Bobs did last season but with only a blink left with Crosby, Malkin, and Letang, I, for one, would not bet the house on #35
Again Rick,
Jarry - Losing Record: 10-11-2
Ned - winning record 5-2-2
The only stat that really counts is Ws vs Ls.
Don't force me to write things that I really would rather not share.
We're also fourth in the league in fewest goals allowed. That simply doesn't happen with a sub-standard starting goalie.
And don't tell me it's all due to our air-tight defense. The one you frequently criticize.
Rick
Except that 21 Goalies face more HD chances than Jarry, during 5 on 5 situations and 37 Goalies across the league face more HD chances than your buddy.
As for air-tight-defense, before the Thanksgiving break, when your buddy was at his worst, the Penguins offense was 5th in the league in GF/60 (3.21), since Sullivan changed up his system (finally), the team's scoring has dropped to 26th (2.61). The defensemen on the team aren't that good, but when you sacrifice over 0.6 GF/60 by requiring your forwards to insulate your pathetic Defensemen, you do tighten down your D.
Keep squirming, keep trying to avoid the most important stat Ws vs Ls, and keep trying to justify this loser, but that is what he is, a loser.
I couldn't duplicate your numbers, but came up with following according to Natural Stat Trick.
Jarry is 30th out of 85 ranked goalies in high-danger shots against per 60 minutes 5v5. Nedeljkovic is 42nd, which would indicate he's better insulated. It could also be a reflection of Ned's rebound control, which is excellent.
In all situations, Jarry faces the 45th most out of 85. Nedeljkovic the 68th most out of 85.
We could go round and round forever. Obviously you and I will have to agree to disagree on this one...
Rick
I limit the search to those players within 1 standard deviation of the mean in terms of minutes played (sort of, I estimated the change from my last full statistical look), that is probably why I have him at 22 while you have him at 30, I tossed out players with cameo appearances.
Bottom line is that Jarry is insulated, yet still loses. You need to start asking the important question of why he is losing more games than winning when his overall Sv% is high and you will see that the overall Sv% is inflated.
Now after looking at the differences between HDS try looking at the situational differences,
Jarry's Sv% vs all Scores - 0.917
Jarry's Sv% vs Leading - 0.931 (when opponents are taking desperate low danger shots - significantly higher and skewing the data)
Jarry's Sv% vs up By 1 G - 0.907 (when the team needs him to hold the lead - lower than his overall, again evidence that Jarry's stats are padded by his teammates)
Jarry's Sv% when tied - 0.908 (Again when the team needs him to play big)
Jarry's Sv% when down by 1 - 0.928 (when opposing teams are trying to protect a lead and not really trying to score).
Jarry's Sv% when Trailing - 0.908 (Not really all that strong mentally, when things turn south Jarry just gives up)
Jarry is a loser