I wasn’t planning to write an article today. I even told myself, “Buker you’re not going to write today. You’re gonna rest your brain.”
However, a statement made by our long-time reader and commenter Mike sparked a lively exchange in the comments section of a recent article. So I thought I’d toss something up on the blog to make it official.
I’ll start by posing a million dollar (or perhaps $6 million for 6-year) question. Should the Penguins re-sign UFA-to-be goalie Tristan Jarry?
A really tough question. Personally, I like Jarry and think he’s one of the better goalies in the league…when healthy. The numbers seem to support my opinion. Tristan’s ranked 17th out of 74 goalies who’ve appeared in at least 10 games in save percentage (.914), ahead of such notables as Darcy Kuemper (.910), Igor Shesterkin (.909) and former Pens Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray (.908 each.)
In goals saved above average (GSAA), a stat somewhat tied to workload, he’s 13th among the 73 ranked netminders at 8.67, again ahead of the others listed in the previous paragraph.
Ah…but the health issue. Therein lies the rub. Jarry’s had two stints on IR this season, causing practically a 50/50 split in starts (33-28) with backup Casey DeSmith. Hardly ideal. Then there are the persistent and troubling rumors of a chronic hip ailment.
Coupled with the not-so-little fact that Jarry crapped the bed in his only real playoff appearance against the Islanders two springs ago? It certainly makes signing him long-term for big bucks a dicey proposition.
Problem is, if you don’t sign Jarry, who do you get? There are lots of teams, and I mean LOTS, who are having goalie issues.
Seattle is somehow winning with the uninspired tandem of Martin Jones (.888 SV%) and Philipp Grubauer (.896). Think they won’t be looking to upgrade? With the hugely ineffective Calvin Petersen (.868 SV%) and his $5 million cap hit languishing in the minors, the Kings have been forced to make do with journeyman Phoenix Copley (.899 SV%).
The Oilers are likewise shelling out $5 million to Jack Campbell for his .882 save percentage. Barring a buyout, he’s on the books for four more years.
Buffalo’s riding rookie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (3.61 GAA, .893 SV%, -11.1 GSAA). Think they wouldn’t give their eye teeth to have Bruins stud and Vezina front-runner Linus Ullmark back between the pipes?
Even powerhouse Carolina is limping along with substandard goaltending. Antti Raanta’s stopping ‘em at a .907 clip. Frederik Andersen has the same save percentage as DeSmith (.906). In fact, compared to a lot of other teams, our goaltending situation is positively peachy.
Back to my pre-ramble question. If not Jarry, then who?
The popular answer is native son John Gibson, who’s performed admirably (.902 SV%) behind an ultra-porous Ducks team. However, Gibson’s under contract through the 2026-27 season at a healthy cap hit of $6.4 million, with a no-trade clause to boot.
Although only 29, Gibson’s seen a ton of rubber over the last few seasons, so there’s likely to be a lot of wear and tear on his tread. Too, it’s been a number of years since he’s ranked among the elite goalies statistically.
To sum up? Securing a goalie (or two) is liable to be the hot-button issue facing GM Ron Hextall (or his replacement) this coming summer.
I wish him well.
Hey Guys,
Here we go again…First it was the defense core last summer and we needed to keep Letang at all costs.!! We signed him for 6 years and i will go on record to say that this contract will come back to haunt us. The last 2 or 3 years will be brutal. We never learn…. We are still paying for Jack Johnson…
What has this to do with Jarry ? Everything….. We are going to make the same mistake with Jarry by over paying and giving to long a term in his new contract because we are AFRAID … We can not replace him…..
Almost everybody is replaceable. Lets not make the same mistake again Rick.
I echo the comments of Coach above. …I love the statistics that he and Rick come up with . Brilliant analysis from both of them. I am more of a simple man and i look at things a little different.
At one time the Pens were good enough that the Goalie did not need to be the best player on the ice in order to win. Those days have passed us by and Jarry is not that level of Goalie to be able to fix all the Pen’s problems moving forward. . We need to realize that were not the team we once were and time is not on our side….
JIM
Hey Rick,
So here is what I see when I see Tristan Jarry;
1) A player that has been under a 0.900 Sv% in over 1/3 of his games (13/33).
2) A player that has faced the 15th most Low Danger shots (LDS/60) in the league, only 38th in the league in terms of High Danger Shots (HDS/60) but only ranks 17th in Sv%. Based on shot type, his Sv% should at least be ranked where it is or even higher if he is a good goalie. Jarry is not really being tested
3) A player that only ranks 55th in terms of Rush Attempts/60 yet still only manages to come in 17th in Sv% despite not being tested.
4) A player who is tied for 8th at his position in terms of Gv/60 – a player that shoots himself in the foot.
5) A player that has been on IR twice this season.
As I wrote in reply to the discussion you refer to, on your previous post, I re-state, as much as I liked 2 time Cup winning Matt Murray, I wasn’t willing to pay him $6+ million let alone a long term deal for a Goalie so ain’t no way I would be willing to pay a Goalie that gets the above mentioned protection from is team and still hasn’t won a playoff series.
If the bum wants to re-sign roughly an equal contract, I keep him, but there is no need to spend $6 million for a goalie that only is average. He can easily be replaced in terms of wins above replacement.
Duly noted, my friend, although I still think Jarry’s better than you’re giving him credit for.
My issue is, if you don’t re-sign him, who are you going to get? I know you’re high on Joel Blomqvist, but I have to tell you…the idea of riding him and possibly another kid like Gauthier, Lindberg or Murashov seems more than a bit risky. Especially since young goalies usually require some nurturing and development.
With the clock ticking on our core and our “win now” mind-set, hard to see the Pens going that route.
Again, I don’t know what the answer is. Or more to the point…who the answer is…if we don’t re-sign Jarry.
Rick
Hey Rick,
First, if Jarry gets realistic, I would resign him – short term – for $3.5, $4 max. He really hasn’t earned a raise.
If someone does throw $6 mil at him, good for him – he may get better protection from taking hits (probably couldn’t get any worse) but less protection from high danger shots.
Second, what is the ratio of games won by our Goalies to games lost by our Goalies? Can it get any worse? Furthermore, as you noted
Third;
Edmonton has a Pts% of 0.600
Seattle has a Pts% of 0.625
Kings have a Pts% of 0.631
Carolina has a Pts% of 0.742
All above our Pens Sv% of 0.579
Now as you point out.
Edmonton is piling up 0.021 more points per game than our Pens with a Goalie only posting a 0.882 Sv%
Seattle is 0.046 above us with a Goalie tandem Sv% ranging between 0.888 – 0.8.896
LA is 0.051 above our Penguins with a 0.868 – 0.899 Sv&
And Carolina is 0.063 above our Pens with a 0.906 – 0.907 Sv%
Sorry, but I would rather not pay more for a goalie ($6 Mil) than the Kings ($5 Mil) and yet win less games. The Window is closed (barring a new Coach and new GM) so I would rather not spend more $$$ just to also lose more $$$$.
I would much rather take the lower cost Blomqvist and/or Gauthier and still get just about the same amount of wins, spending the extra money on skaters. Maybe if GMRH hadn’t taken on more Cap hit, I may feel different but right now, no, in this current situation let him walk – move on.
PS–I will 100 percent agree with you on one thing. We should pretty much be playing Gauthier and Lindberg exclusively in Wilkes…especially with the season tanking.
Maybe spot Tokarski here and there, in case he needs to be called up.
Rick
On another not – Angello was picked up by Nashville. He’not eligible for the bigs this year so
they sent him to their minor league affiliate. GO PENS