Penguins Update: To Sign or Not to Sign…the Great Goalie Conundrum

I wasn’t planning to write an article today. I even told myself, “Buker you’re not going to write today. You’re gonna rest your brain.”

However, a statement made by our long-time reader and commenter Mike sparked a lively exchange in the comments section of a recent article. So I thought I’d toss something up on the blog to make it official.

I’ll start by posing a million dollar (or perhaps $6 million for 6-year) question. Should the Penguins re-sign UFA-to-be goalie Tristan Jarry?

A really tough question. Personally, I like Jarry and think he’s one of the better goalies in the league…when healthy. The numbers seem to support my opinion. Tristan’s ranked 17^th out of 74 goalies who’ve appeared in at least 10 games in save percentage (.914), ahead of such notables as Darcy Kuemper (.910), Igor Shesterkin (.909) and former Pens Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray (.908 each.)

In goals saved above average (GSAA), a stat somewhat tied to workload, he’s 13^th among the 73 ranked netminders at 8.67, again ahead of the others listed in the previous paragraph.

Ah…but the health issue. Therein lies the rub. Jarry’s had two stints on IR this season, causing practically a 50/50 split in starts (33-28) with backup Casey DeSmith. Hardly ideal. Then there are the persistent and troubling rumors of a chronic hip ailment.

Coupled with the not-so-little fact that Jarry crapped the bed in his only real playoff appearance against the Islanders two springs ago? It certainly makes signing him long-term for big bucks a dicey proposition.

Problem is, if you don’t sign Jarry, who do you get? There are lots of teams, and I mean LOTS, who are having goalie issues.

Seattle is somehow winning with the uninspired tandem of Martin Jones (.888 SV%) and Philipp Grubauer (.896). Think they won’t be looking to upgrade? With the hugely ineffective Calvin Petersen (.868 SV%) and his $5 million cap hit languishing in the minors, the Kings have been forced to make do with journeyman Phoenix Copley (.899 SV%).

The Oilers are likewise shelling out $5 million to Jack Campbell for his .882 save percentage. Barring a buyout, he’s on the books for four more years.

Buffalo’s riding rookie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (3.61 GAA, .893 SV%, -11.1 GSAA). Think they wouldn’t give their eye teeth to have Bruins stud and Vezina front-runner Linus Ullmark back between the pipes?

Even powerhouse Carolina is limping along with substandard goaltending. Antti Raanta’s stopping ‘em at a .907 clip. Frederik Andersen has the same save percentage as DeSmith (.906). In fact, compared to a lot of other teams, our goaltending situation is positively peachy.

Back to my pre-ramble question. If not Jarry, then who?

The popular answer is native son John Gibson, who’s performed admirably (.902 SV%) behind an ultra-porous Ducks team. However, Gibson’s under contract through the 2026-27 season at a healthy cap hit of $6.4 million, with a no-trade clause to boot.

Although only 29, Gibson’s seen a ton of rubber over the last few seasons, so there’s likely to be a lot of wear and tear on his tread. Too, it’s been a number of years since he’s ranked among the elite goalies statistically.

To sum up? Securing a goalie (or two) is liable to be the hot-button issue facing GM Ron Hextall (or his replacement) this coming summer.

I wish him well.