The Penguins have problems. Very big problems. One of the biggest of those problems that the Penguins had the opportunity to fix a multitude of times, is between the pipes. To say that Tristan Jarry has been less than satisfactory would be the understatement of the century.
The New GM, whoever that may be, has a lot of work cut out for them. Possibly another understatement there as well.
Tristan Jarry in my mind at this point has had numerous times to prove that he is a top ten goaltender in this league. Yet every chance he had to be “thee” goaltender he let the Penguins down in a massive way.
When the big save needed to be made, Jarry never made it. When the Penguins have a lead, Jarry never keeps it. Elite winning goalies make the big saves, that’s why they are who they are. I’m convinced that Tristian Jarry is in fact not that goaltender. He’s great when the pressure is off but that is not enough in the NHL. To top off all of that, he’s hurt too much and he will want too much money. I say, let him walk.
So who will fill the pipes? Casey DeSmith? Indeed not, I don’t believe DeSmith is a 1A. I don’t mean to slight DeSmith, he did great for what was asked of him. It’s just time for a clean slate in net. I would just move on from Casey DeSmith and get a vet who can fill in as a starter for injuries.
So who then? I believe the answer lies in the deserts of Arizona in Karel Vejmelka.
He comes in at a height of 6’4, 224 lbs, and 26 years old.
His cap hit is $2,725,000 until 24-25, a fantastic price point.
I’m putting my reputation on this one (what little if any I have) in that Karel Vejmelka has superstar level potential. Yep, I said that.
In my book, with the Penguins or at least any other hockey club, he’s a Vezina trophy winner.
He’s a hidden gem tucked away in the desert amongst the tumbleweeds where no one looks. I’ve had my eye on Vejmelka for quite some time now. Despite what any stats may say, he makes the big saves and in spectacular fashion.
But what are the stats? Well this season he had 18(W) 24(L), well that doesn’t sound too good does it? Remember he plays for the Arizona Coyotes, so in fact it is indeed good to get that roster 18 wins. Outside of the amazing talents in Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, there isn’t much to behold in the sands of Phoenix.
As for his save percentage (SV%) he had a .899, and his GAA was 3.43. Yea, not great but again I will mention the team he plays for is not known for defense, or really anything for that matter. But here is an impressive stat, Karel Vejmelka had 3 shutouts. Yes, you heard that right, Karel Vejmelka managed 3 shutouts with no defense and on the Coyotes.
For perspective, the great Andrei Vasilevskiy this season had 4 shutouts and on a much better team in the Tampa Bay Lightning.
And the teams Vejmelka acquired those shutouts from are the New York Islanders on 24 shots, the Carolina Hurricanes on 36 shots, and St. Louis Blues on 33 shots. Those are impressive, especially against the Hurricanes as they are no slouches, and this was before Andrei Svechnikov’s injury.
We need to point out specific games, so we can look at Vejmelka specifically rather than Arizona as a team. Essentially games that Karel Vejmelka stole, so obviously some of the biggest steals would be the aforementioned shutout victories. But let’s take a closer look, dive into the big teams.
In his third game of the season he stole 2 points from the Toronto Maple Leafs with 26(SV) on 28 shots, for a .929 SV%. Not bad.
Then just three games later he steals one from the Florida Panthers, 41(SV) on 42 shots with a .976 SV%. That’s right, almost rocked a shutout against Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and the Panthers.
4 games after that he pulled one off vs the Buffalo Sabers with goal scoring super star Tage Thompson, with 32(SV) on 33 shots with a .970 SV%, yet again almost pulling off a shutout against another good team, seeing a trend?
Now you can go through his game log and notice he keeps a fairly high SV% above .910. Yes there are games where either Vejmelka played poorly which happens, or simply Arizona plays poorly which is a lot, hence why is overall GAA and SV% is lower. That doesn’t tell the whole story as I pointed out.
One last game I wish to mention, or two games in a way. Early in the season, in fact the second game for Karel Vejmelka was against the mighty Bruins in which they fell swiftly and Vejmelka had a not so good SV% of .881. But Vejmelka and the Coyotes would get a shot at revenge in a rematch. Vejmelka did not waste an opportunity to return the favor against the Bruins, and have some redemption. He had 43(SV) on 46 shots for a .935 SV%. Yep, Karel Vejmelka took down the big bad Bruins, being one of the only 12 losses the Bruins had out of a 82 game record breaking season.
And he did it on the Arizona Coyotes, imagine what he could do on the Pittsburgh Penguins….
So let’s dig just a bit deeper. As I said his season SV% .899, but if we look at his SV% at even strength he’s a 0.911 much better. On top of this Vejmelka was 11th in shots against in the NHL, meaning of course he’s facing more shots because his team is weak defensively. Teams with weak to no defense allow more high danger shots as well they usually get more penalties.
Vejmelka’s powerplay SV% is .846, yikes. Now Arizona ended as the worst team in powerplay goals against with 81, so we know that they have the worst PK in the NHL. Now we’re starting to get to the bottom of his season SV% being low. We know on average he’s a 0.911 even strength on a bad team, then nukes to a 0.846 when Arizona is on the penalty kill.
Despite all the failures of Arizona, and how bad the team is in almost every aspect, Vejmelka actually put up good numbers despite this, which is nothing short of extraordinary.
The Penguins are ten times the team that Arizona is, even with a soft defense core, our group is still much better off then the Yotes. Even if the penguins made marginal changes, and Karel Vejmelka was the only addition.
In my opinion you’re in the playoffs from one player, just one change, so if you were able to add even more in front…well who knows.
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Great article, I like it....What would it take to get him???
Maybe Desmith and a pick and or prospect???
Sign a veteran to help guide and a safe backup??
Thanks Pens4ever,
Yes so you're pretty much dead on, a mid round pick, and they probably would have to send DeSmith back,
or they could do a pick + a prospect.
And yes I would sign a capable vet back up, or I would try to get both Arizona goaltenders. As Rick mentioned in a comment below, Connor Ingram their back up is a bit of a hidden gem as well
Hi Caleb,
Great article. I am not a big fan of Jarry's so for me anything close is an improvement.Karel Vejmelka is definitely worth investigating because he has the potential to be better than anything we presently have to offer.
Well done sir.
For me we need way more than just one single player to get us back to the big dance.
Cheers
Jim
Hey Jim! Thank you!
I agree haha, a lot of goalies would be an improvement over what we have.
And yes for the most part I agree it will most likely take more to get us into the playoffs, but I'm that confident not only in Vejmelka but in general in a more competent goalie just winning us a few more games.
We only missed by a few points, so one better goalie I think you're in, one great one and like I said who knows...
Hey Caleb,
Great article. For the most part I agree with you.
I like Jarry and think he’s talented. And it’s hard to gauge the effect that his injuries played this season. But I do agree. He seems to give up goals at crucial times. And whenever he has a chance to take a step up, he seems to take a step back instead. Kind of like the Pitt football program used to be.
It would certainly be a huge risk to sign Jarry to any type of long-term deal at any price, let alone for big $$$. We only need to look at the terrible contracts doled out to Sergei Bobrovsky, Jack Campbell and Calvin Petersen to see the folly in that.
Better to find a young, inexpensive up-and-comer like Karel Vejmelka as you suggest.
Actually, from what I’ve heard, the real diamond in the desert might be Vejmelka’s backup, Connor Ingram. His numbers in the AHL were quite good, he’s affordable and an RFA to boot.
Former Coyote Adin Hill is a pending RFA in Vegas and has put up pretty solid numbers while serving as a 1A behind Logan Thompson. He might be another option.
Rick
Hey Caleb,
I do agree there is a problem in Pgh in Goal. I will be posting my final grades soon and they aren't pretty.
Perhaps he would do better than the fishermen who collected all those pucks in their nets for our Penguins you said he had 3 SO for Az, while the Pens only managed 2 as a team.
However, digging a little deeper, DeSmith actually faced more High Danger shots per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (10.09 vs 9.65) than Vejmelka. Vejmelka did face about 1.5 less HD shots per 60 5-on-5 than Jarry (8.05) but their HDSv% were roughly the same (0.811 for Jarry vs 0.825 for Vejmelka). The only real difference may be in price. I would not be willing to give Jarry a raise and may demand he take a cut to stay a Penguin, at least until he can show he can stay healthy and consistent.
Also, I have to tell you that saying "he makes the big saves and in spectacular fashion" doesn't fill me with confidence. To make a save in spectacular typically fashion means you have to be out of position. For me what I would want to hear is that a goalie tracks the puck well, stays on his angles, doesn't over commit, has good balance on his skates, can get back up to his skates quickly, and moves laterally well.
As I said, anything may be better than what we have so I won't oppose the idea. And I promise that as soon as I get done with watching other players videos I will look to see how I feel about Vejmelka's puck tracking etc.
Hey TOR!
So we discussed this in person, you know I disagree. I don't think they're comparable, I think comparing DeSmith is pointless as he's technically a back up, and Arizona is a far worse team overall.
DeSmith faced 881 shots 5v5 compared to Vejmelka's 1240 shots faced, now Jarry did face 1085, but you compared Demsmith.
Vejmelka: SA:1240 - SV:1134 - GA: 106
Jarry:: S:1085 - SV:996 - GA: 89
DeSmith: SA:881 - SV:805 - GA= 76
Jarry faced 155 fewer shots, yet he was only 17 GA away from Vejmelka who's on a worse team with as I pointed out has the worst PK. Desmith is only 13 GA from Jarry with almost 200 shots less, he stinks in comparison to either guy haha. All those stats are 5v5 only
Now their actual SV% is about the same Vejmelka at 0.915 and Jarry at 0.918, now Jarry is an Elite goalie with known talent and Vejmelka is keeping up with one of the worst teams in the NHL with the WORST PK. That's amazing, just saying.
Vejmelka is 9th in the NHL in HDSA in the NHL 5v5, Jarry is 23rd, Desmith is 24th. Now Desmith is a backup and played less games so we'll leave him out but Jarry is all the way down at 23rd. Jarry has 47 GP and Vejmelka has 50 GP, almost the same GP so when I say Vejmelka is far superior I believe my assessment to be correct.
On the Penguins roster, I think you'd see his SV% 5v5 jump to a 0.926/0.925
Hey Caleb,
1) Jarry is not an elite Goalie.,
a) If Jarry was elite, you wouldn't be looking for a replacemnt.
b) If Jarry was elite, we wouldn't be having this conversation, we would be talking about who the Penguins 2nd round opponent was going to be.
c) Jarry may have had 2 All Star appearances but those are in the rear view mirror, All Star games are worse than end of the season awards in terms of popularity contests, and moreover every team needs to be represented by at least 1 player. Those all star games are pretty much meaningless to any argument, particularly when they are in the rear view mirror.
2) The data shows the more shots you face, the higher your Sv% tends to be, therefore the higher shot totals Vejmelka faces only boost his Sv%. If he faced as few as Jarry and DeSmith, his Sv% would more than likely drops. That is what the gravity and math say.
Understand, I am not defending either Jarry or DeSmith, over the last 2 seasons, both were beaten out by Filip Lindberg in the preseason but Sullivan lacked something. he kept insisting on playing players who didn't earn coming out of the preseason with jobs.
Furthermore, I am not saying don't think about switching out to Vejmelka. Just like a win is a win is a win, so is a lose is lose is a lose. If the Goalies we have are losing anyway, to keep playing the same players and expecting different results well......
All I am saying is, to convince me that he is the right choice talk about his puck tracking skills, his angles, his rebound control, his lateral movement, and his balance on his skates, not his statistics which are really mathematically equivalent to the bums we already have. Give me something to hold on.
Hey Guys,
Jarry said he was injured again, but at this point his injuries are his problem in goal. TOR was right, goaltending was a big problem.
I would love it if the Pens grabbed a #1 and tried to sign Jarry to one year deal. That would be the best scenario to me.
Jarry really was playing good until his injury. If the injuries just happen to be a fluke it would really suck to lose him.