Should the Penguins acquire J.T. Miller?
Well, the internet, and especially Twitter is buzzing about trade talks between Pittsburgh and Vancouver for JT Miller.
The real question I want to answer is, should they?
The internet will tell you yes because he’s just “so good”, but just because a player puts up great point totals doesn’t translate to a “great fit”.
I’m sure Vancouver GM Patrik Allvin and Club President Jim Rutherford would love to offload that big 7-year contract costing them a small sum of $56,000,000 at $8,000,000 a year. Lots of regrets for that deal as J.T. Miller is known as a locker room cancer, which is also very evident on the Ice.
We won’t be all negative Nancy to start though, Let’s go over the benefit of a J.T. Miller deal before we get into why they might not want to follow through.
Versatility
One of Miller’s greatest strengths is his versatility. He’s able to play both center and wing, which makes him a valuable asset for any team. Miller is comfortable playing in any situation, whether it’s on the power play, penalty kill, or even strength. He’s also able to adapt to different line combinations and play styles, which makes him an ideal teammate. Miller’s versatility is a major reason why he’s been so successful in the NHL.
Scoring Touch
Miller is also an effective scorer. He has a great shot and a quick release, which allows him to score goals from a variety of angles and distances. In the 2019-20 season, Miller had a breakout year, scoring 27 goals and adding 45 assists for a total of 72 points in 69 games. He finished the season with a shooting percentage of 15.2%, which is well above the league average. In the 21-22 season Miller had his biggest season yet with 32 goals and 67 assists for 99 points in 80 games, if he’d played those two extra games he would of most likely had that nice total of 100 points. Miller’s scoring touch makes him a threat every time he’s on the ice, and he’s one of the key offensive weapons for the Vancouver Canucks.
Playmaking Ability
In addition to his scoring touch, Miller is also an excellent playmaker. He has great vision and hockey sense, which allows him to set up his teammates for scoring chances. Miller is able to make quick, accurate passes in traffic, and he has a knack for finding open players in scoring positions. He can also just make space or create plays by simply skating until he finds a play, he can be hard to lock down and that can be dangerous for an opposing team that becomes distracted by him, which leaves him with opportunities to make something happen.
Physicality
Miller is also known for his physicality on the ice. He’s a big, strong player at 6’1 and 218 lbs, who isn’t afraid to throw his weight around and get involved in the physical aspects of the game. In Millers, last 5 games he’s had 24 hits and 6 of those alone came in his last game. Miller is able to use his size and strength to win battles along the boards and in front of the net, which allows him to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. Miller’s physicality also makes him an effective penalty killer, as he’s able to disrupt opposing power plays and win battles for loose pucks.
Should they make the trade?
So all that sounds great, why shouldn’t we get him? Well the first reason for me is he’s 30 years old, I mean my god can this team get one player who is under 30 and in their 20’s?
The only way I would be less upset with the age is if they plan on selling off a lot of the roster and letting younger players either get a shot or have a bigger role such as William Nylander, Drew O’Connor, Sam Poulin, Valtteri Puustinen, and Filip Hallander. (Edit: Whoops William Nylander? I wish! I didn’t notice that slipped in, I’m going to leave that in. Maybe the hockey gods will bless us, I, of course, meant Alex Nylander) I would in fact take any of those players over guys like Jeff Carter, Mikael Granlund, and Josh Archibald.
In fairness, anything is better than Jeff Carter, they could put a real-life penguin on the ice and just slap a helmet and give him a stick and he would probably play better than Carter.
Following his age you have the same problem that has caused Vancouver to try and sell him in the first place which is that he’s toxic to a locker room. Multiple players have alluded to that fact, but as I said before it’s more than evident on the ice.
An example is when he yelled at Goaltender Colin Delia to get off the ice so they could get an extra man on, in a game against the Jets.
The problem was that Miller skated back into his own zone with the puck, so Delia actually made the right call not leaving for the bench. J.T. Miller proceeded to have a hissy fit, and vocally yelled at Delia then skated behind the net and slamed his stick on the back of the net.
Now I don’t know about you, but that’s pathetic behavior from a veteran player, you could maybe chalk that up to a bad game but that just does not seem to be the case based on what has been rumored. Imagine going to the back after the game, not a good setting I’d imagine.
Do the Penguins want to take that problem on? Being stuck with his $8,000,000 a year plus smacked on top of that is a NMC for the next 7 years, and he’s currently 30 and that contract would take him until he’s 37 and he would be coming to a roster of 30+ players? That just sounds like a lot of headaches and problems to me.
Maybe they think Sullivan and Crosby can reign him in, and that he would change his tune a bit on a new team, and partly that is the case, he doesn’t want to play in Vancouver he’s said as much and it’s clear from his attitude on the ice. The Cancuks will miss the playoffs again, they are just not quite there yet and I don’t think Miller wants to wait until he’s in his mid-thirties to get a shot at a Stanley Cup.
Next problem, how are the Penguins making this deal? Kind of tight against the cap there guys.
Now I don’t believe that it’s impossible, Vegas was able to acquire Jack Eichel and they were strapped for cash, but I can’t imagine that if the deal goes through we’ll magically end up with more cap space.
Is Hextall or whatever GM most likely replaces him going to give up a beloved first-round pick? We shall see, but it’s Jim Rutherford and I truly believe he’d sell J.T. Miller for a bag of pucks, we know how Rutherford likes doing charity work.
If they could somehow work in taking Jeff Carter off the Penguins that would go a long way in making this deal look a lot better, maybe even great, not saying that Vancouver wants him, but if they want to pass on J.T. Miller, they’re going to have to take some cap pressure off of the Penguins.
Who knows, time will tell, what do you think? For now, I would be wary of how this could go down, but J.T. Miller does bring a presence that the Penguins are lacking, and he’s a big star, there’s no questioning that, but is he the right one for the Penguins? I might lean towards no, but you never know.
Interesting times for the Penguins…
EDIT/UPDATE
NHL Trade Rumor posted the following from Elliotte Friedman.
“Elliotte Friedman was on his 32 Thoughts Podcast and was discussing the potential Miller trade to Pittsburgh with Jeff Marek.
Friedman stated one of the reasons the Penguins deal for J.T. Miller didn’t happen is because the Pens had to unload Jason Zucker’s contract to fit Miller’s in and the Canucks were on Zucker’s no-trade list.
The Canucks did think about flipping Zucker to another team but had no time to find the right 3rd party trade partner.
Friedman went on to say in his podcast that the deal was too complicated to complete at the NHL trade deadline and could be revisited at the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.“
The Other Rick
A consistent 40 plus points a year on the 2nd line is acceptable especially
when your intangibles are off the chart. Not to mention he has never played
with this type of skill and offensive abilities. Their are variables but you can’t
pick and choose and IMO opinion Intangibles are invaluable.
If you take Rakell & Rust and eliminate the seasons they were hurt and played
less than 50 games Rakell’s at 44.7 per year and Rust I believe is somewhere
around 43 and with Rust prior to this season has seen substantial amounts of
time on the PP.
I understand what you are saying but the discussion that Rick started was sign at all costs.
I only sign 80+ pps players at all costs.
Also, on a long term contract, even if Zucker were still providing intangibles, there comes a point where you have to ask yourself the cost to benefit ratio if he is no longer scoring.
And I would not sign Rakell and Rust at all costs either.
In the end, as I said, if I can sign himm for a reasonable contract in terms of money AND term, yes resign him, but don’t enter into a bidding war when you are about to enter into a rebuild.
Even though I like JT Miller, I personally don’t feel it would take the pens to the next level. They need to get younger and faster and bringing in another 30+ year old isn’t in that mindset. All the other teams in the east, with exception of a few teams, are getting that young depth and are super-fast. Just look at the Devils for example, made the pens look like a cinder block on the ice. We as pens fans can’t get over the fact that the cup winning, playoff runs are coming to an end. I agree we need decent players for Sid and Geno to play with to ride off into the sunset, we need youth and players to grow our own. Getting Miller at that price tag will make the pens dump a lot of players, especially when we are already going to fight to keep Zucker next year. I think getting more youth and development is key instead of going the trade route. JT is a great player and put up the points, yada yada but at the end of the day he played in the west. West is easier to play in and the teams are different. The east has always had the more challenging conference. If you look at his stats when he was on the NYR or Tamps, he only had 2 complete seasons, playing a full 82 games, with a high of 22 goals in a season. You can get a 20-goal scorer anywhere in free agency or trades for less that 8mill, so why pay the high price tag? Giving up a lot just to get Miller doesn’t compute in my mind. I think he’s a great player, and I don’t think we need another rehabilitation project but to get younger and get ready for some rebuilding over the years to come. Thats my 2 cents for what it’s worth!
Maybe if J.T. joins the Pens, him and Geno can go to the same anger management class. Or a motivation through sheer stupidity seminar. Most certainly they would be roomies.
JT and Geno might just spend the class yelling at each other haha!
Hey Caleb,
Excellent question – should they trade for J.T. Miller?
Miller has talent and speed and maybe even more importantly he is fairly local. I know some friends of his. That could translate into ticket sales. However, I am not so sure he will move the needle much in terms of improving this team. And that is part of the problem with this team right now, they run after hype and don’t bother thinking about the full impact of their moves – almost like our brain trust has been lobotomized.
While I agree that the Penguins run after hype trains like a homeless drifter.
I’m not so sure he doesn’t move the needle for the team, he’s a 100-point player at this point, and he’d be playing with even better players in our top 6 than in Vancouver.
He also brings some much needed size and physicality, that being said I think the three big issues for me are 30 Years Old, Chemistry with the roster, and a 8 million cap hit.
Hey Caleb,
Excellent article, and I really like the way you drill down into who he is as a player.
Just the way you describe him, he sounds a bit like Evander Kane…a very good player with some baggage. After wearing out his welcome everywhere else, Kane seemed to turn over a new leaf with the Oilers last season. Don’t know how things are going this season and/or if he’s reverting to his bad, old form.
It’s just really hard for me to see us fitting Miller into our cap structure, unless we’re able to deal Granlund. My guess is, JR would also want Pettersson (and not Carter). Too, acquiring Miller would probably mark the end of Zucker’s black-and-gold career. And I desperately want to re-sign him.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Zucker is having a super strong comeback season. He is among the bright few bright spots of this season. I do feel sorry for him, Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Rakellm and even Letang. (after getting proper treatment for his stroke) they have been leaving it on the ice every game, trying to get a pulse from this lifeless corpse of an aged and completely demoralized team. The odds our Pens keep their playoff streak going are iffy, but, based on strength of schedule, not only possible but slightly better than 50-50 in my book. Moreover, if these guys don’t make it back to the dance this season, due to the ineptitude of Sullivan’s, Hextall’s, and Burke’s mismanagement of this team, it will be a crime.
However, as for re-signing Zucker, I am sorry Rick, I have to say temper your zeal or you will be as bad as JR and RH. If Zucker comes in reasonable then yes re-sign him, but the window is closed. There is no reasonable expectation that re-signing him will bring Crosby, Malkin, and Letang 1-more Cup. It is past time to start thinking about the future. Going into the off-season this team needs to give itself over to a youth movement. Any and all desperate attempts to hold on to the past will sink it even further into the depression that was the early 2000s or worse the pre-Mario 80s.
Hey Other Rick,
I know full well signing Zucker could morph into another Patric Hornqvist situation where we’d be looking to unload him a couple years down the road. But I just love this guy and his competitive fire and the way he plays. In his own unique way, very much like Hornqvist.
Give me a team full of Zuckers, and I’d like our chances of winning a Cup.
Rick
I am going to have to remind you Rick that until this season, his Contract season, Zucker was pretty much a zero here. I like everything he has done this season but that is just 1 out of 4 seasons. That us why I say caution, caution, caution. How many players (Bryan Rust – this year) once they get their money just disappear or produce significantly less? We aren’t talking Crosby, Malkin, or Letang, players that are always at the top of this list in terms of Pts/60
Give Zucker his due, he is playing like he wants a big contract, but clear thinking should be the watch word, not hysteria and hype.
The Other Rick
I repsectfully disagree. Zucker is playing like a player who finally is
healthy. Also, I would caution that if you lose Zucker who can the
Pen’s replace him with that not only gives you the ability to score
goals, but has a set of intangibles that are off the chart. As I
mentioned below I have no issues with losing him if you can find a
player that gives you what Zucker gives you and will improve the
team going forward.
Mike,
Sometimes people disagree and that is ok. For me what I see is this,
We are talking about a Forward who averages in the 40s in terms of Points per Season.
Only 4 times in this 31-year-old Forward’s 9-year (not counting his 1st 3 season where he only played 6, 20, and 21 games) career has Zucker averaged more than 2 Pts/60 5-on-5. That is less than half his seasons. And this is going to be the 2nd best season of his career in terms of 5-on-5 scoring/60.
The odds are not in Zucker’s favor for producing points like he is is now, for any length of time.
And as for his “intangibles” (a completely subjective and unmeasurable assessment) I won’t argue that some perceive him as top notch, nor am I going to disrespect the player. He is having the 2nd best season of his career, as I have said.
However, as you have pointed out elsewhere on this piece, this team is not a contender and is overloaded with aging veterans with NMCs. Zucker does have value to this team, but from a financial standpoint it is limited. He is not the drawing card for this team. Fans are not beating down the arena gates to see him. His jersey sales are hardly going to keep this team afloat with ancillary income. And any leadership qualities he possesses may be sorely lacking when juxtaposed to what his scoring contributions will be by the time a new and young crop of players starts to challenge for a Cup.
By the time this team becomes relevant again, Zucker may be a bigger millstone than Carter is this season.
If Zucker is willing to sign a team friendly with regards not only to money but term, by all means, sign him, but to Rick Bs assertion to sign him at all costs I have to say an emphatic no!
Also, Mike,
Truthfully, if I could reverse that Zucker trade I would. Again, I mean no disrespect towards what Zucker is doing right now, but again as you point out, this team is not a Cup contender. This team needs outside help right now just to make the playoffs. Going forward, into the future I would rather have Calen Addison back as well as that 1st round 2021 pick.
Minnesota used that pick to draft Carson Lambos. Lambos is a 6’-1”, 197lb LHD who had 12 G and 26 A in 61 GP and was a +60 with 60 PIM for the Winnipeg Ice of the WHL this past regular WHL season and 2 A in 4 Post-season GP.
There are other players that were draft after Lambos that I would love to have right now too, so if the Pens didn’t draft Lambos, I would rather be looking at a future with
1) Zachary L’Heureux, a 5-11” 197lb Center who had 21 G and 21 A in 33 GP and was a +31 with 34 PIM for the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL
2) Zachary Dean, a 6’-0” 176 lb Center who had 33 G and 37 A in 50 GP and was +39 with 53 PIM for the Gatineau Olympiques of the QMJHL (a teammate of Penguin Prospect of Isaac Belliveau)
3) Logan Mailloux, a 6’-3” , 208 lb RHD who had 25 G and 28 A in 59 GP and was a +15 with 77 PIM for the London Knights of the OHL
Neither Addison, Lambos, or L’Heureux, Dean, or Mailloux will be the next Crosby or Malkin, but they certainly would make going into the future look a bit brighter than signing Zucker “at all costs.”
The point is, this is not a 1 or 2 dimensional game, when a domino falls, it affects many dominos downstream.
Rick
I agree 100%. To many times people view stats alone when it comes to a players
value to his team. This is one of the main reasons I’m not big on analytics. They
distort the view of a player and undervalue a players intangibles. I know we’ve
had this discussion before but a lot of the Pens issues in their bottom six are
directy related to intangibles or lack of , and type of players you need manning your 3rd &
4th lines. We take a player that can’t crack the top 6 and stick him on the bottom
six ad expect him to accel – It doesn’t work like that.
Regarding Zucker, I love his game but if we can improve as a team I have no problem
with moving him or losing him in FA but I learned a very valuable lesson in Professional
sports – make sure you can replace him with what he brought to the team.
I look forward to your feedback.
The Other Rick
This is exactly why I didn’t want Hextall to sign Malkin and Letang. How do you move into a
rebuild / youth movement when you tied yourself into two aging players for the next 4 or
5 years. I said at the time of the signings that Hextall had just set the Penguins organization
back 5 years. I think that each of us would admit this team had no shot at the Cup even if
Hextall would of pulled of some crafty trades / moves. It possibly would of carried us into the
2nd round but no real chance at Lord Stanley. The biggest problem I have with the direction
we’re heading is bringing in players Petry and Granulund who IMO aren’t in the Pen’s plans
for the future and trying to trade either without giving up another asset is next to impossible.
Hextall takes one step forward and two steps backwards. This team has multiple issues ,
Defense, Goaltending, Bottom six and zero flexibility to operate. The future is dim.
Hey Rick!
Thank you I appreciate the praise from the silver fox himself!
And yes he’s very similar to Kane but obviously, much better. Kane is an accessory type winger who can notch you in the realm of 60-70 points depending on his linemates, mostly goals as he’s more of a sniper.
Where, JT is a star, a guy who can absolutely get it done on his own, a 80-100 point player. He’s weak defensively outside of hits and blocks, so he would be doing us no favors there. As for Kane he was doing fantastic until that horrible accident where he had his wrist cut by a skate! Scary stuff that was, glad he recovered.
So I updated the article at the “Should they make the trade?” mark as to finish off some thoughts and make it more coherent haha, Sharon was in a rush to get out and I wanted to get the article out in an adequate state. So if you’d like to re-read I bring up some other points.
But one point I make is that Vegas was able to acquire Jack Eichel, and they were very tight on cap, whenever people talk about “Caps” being tight, I ignore that, ANY deal can be made in the NHL if the two teams want to make it happen, and the Pens won’t let this trade go that’s why it keeps popping back up in the news, which honestly makes me concerned as to what they’re giving up, makes me feel they’re a little to desperate to make the deal happen, and when you’re desperate you make REALLY bad moves.
But a fleecing for us might not be out of the question because they have good old Rutherford there! and that works in our favor haha! but what works against us in the same vein in Hextall, so maybe that just cancels out.
I also want Zucker back, but I agree, the penguins might view that as to expensive or look to try and ship him. Possibly would even view the two of them as similar but JT the far better player, it would be disappointing.