Categories: PenguinPoop

The Penguins: to Sign or Not to Sign (or Should Not Have Signed)

This morning I happened to be talking to our good friend Rick Buker at our favorite fitness facility, Wright’s Gym and Krav Maga. As is our wont, the subject of our favorite flightless fowl came up. The discussion began focused on Rick’s most recent posting, UFA Will Butcher being signed by the black and gold and our team’s love affair with under-sized players.

I reminded Rick of a Defenseman I proposed as a FA signing several years ago, Oliwer Kaski.

We also discussed the poorly thought out signing of Tristan Jarry.

Rick suggested I turn our discussion into an article. Without further ado, Rick B and my Penguin Talk.

The Laziness of the Jarry Signing

Tristan Jarry Goalie

I am so sick of listening to the less than sophisticated defenses I have heard for Kyle Dubas’ re-signing Tristan Jarry – “Who else could he have signed?” What a ridiculous response.

Before I go any further, let us look at some cold hard realities. The average back-up goalie in the NHL plays between 15 and 30 games with 22 Games Played (GP sitting roughly in the middle of that range.

So, what does that have to do with the price of tea in the proverbial foreign land? You may ask.

Simply put, $5.375 Million per year is way too much to pay for a back-up Goalie!

“What! Jarry a back-up Goalie, are you nuts TOR!!!” He has been named to 2 NHL All Star Games.

Calm down defenders of the sub-par Tristan Jarry.

To use our friend Mike’s and many others’ arguments about eye tests, since his entrance into the NHL, I have never viewed Jarry as a starting NHL quality Goalie, the eye test just nagged at me. Yet everyone else kept hailing him as a superstar.

Whenever the friends of Jarry cited his 2 – All Star game appearances, I calmly tried to remind the Rabid Jarrians with the reality of the NHL All Star game; that NHL spectacle requires each team be represented, no matter how low quality the players on that roster and the players are chosen by the fans, not merit.

Now, after this latest Pittsburgh Penguins signing/re-signing faux pas with the resultant clamoring to defend a defenseless inking, I chose to look at the empirical, objective data. An NHL back-up Goalie plays between 15 and 30 games with 22 GP the rough mean, I crunched the numbers of Tristan Jarry’s career. I discarded the seasons he played only 1 and 2 games; the other 5 seasons are listed in the table below.

SeasonSv%GAASv%GAA
2017-181st 22 GP0.9132.68Post Game 220.8823.24
2019-201st 22 GP0.9322.08Post Game 220.93.1
2020-211st 22 GP0.9092.86Post Game 220.912.59
2021-221st 22 GP0.9341.92Post Game 220.912.75
2022-231st 22 GP0.922.67Post Game 220.8983.13
Total1st 22 GP0.9222.43Post Game 220.9042.88
Comparison of Tristan Jarry’s Statistics between the 1st 22 GP/season and GP after the 22nd Game (110 to 93 GP between Splits

Up through the mid-range of a back-up Goalie, Tristan Jarry can, at times, look like an All-Star. The numbers bear that out. In his career, Jarry has a Save Percentage (Sv%) of 0.922 and Goals Against Average (GAA) of 2.43. As a back-up, Jarry would have value.

However, look at what happens after the 22nd GP by Jarry; the Goalie’s Sv% plunges all the way down to 0.904 and his GAA jumps to 2.88. After game 22 in a season, Jarry becomes a liability. Only once in the 5 seasons that Jarry has played more than 22 games has he been equal or better after game 22 than before game 22 and that was the COVID delayed season when teams only played within their own division.

So now I repeat, Jarry is not a starting NHL level Goalie, he physically can’t shoulder that load. No matter how much you like the man, or how bruised your ego, as a fan, will get, Jarry has not shown he has what it takes to be a number 1 Goalie. After Jarry plays his 22nd game in a season, most Goalies in the NHL and in the Penguins’ pipeline are at least equal to Jarry and often better. I would rather pay Joel Blomqvist or Taylor Gauthier to see what they have rather than suffer through another Jarry meltdown after he hits his wall.

To sign a back-up Goalie for $5.375 million per years for 5 years is ASS-A-Nine. Dubas and his Head Coach, Mike Sullivan, need to start doing their homework before good money after bad.

Oliwer Kaski

Oliwer Kaski Right-Handed Defenseman (RHD)

An Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) the Penguins should go after is a Finnish Defensemen that I wanted the team to sign back in 2019-20, Oliwer Kaski. In the summer of 2019, during my usual unsolicited advice columns aimed at then GM Jim Rutherford, I suggested that he should try to sign 3 European Free Agents (FA), Kaski, Ilya Mikheyev (Forward), and Adam Reideborn (Goalie). Instead, Rutherford opted to sign Oula Palve (Center) and Emil Larmi (Goalie).

The Detroit Red Wings signed Kaski. Unfortunately for both the Wings and Kaski, things didn’t work out. The then 21 year old Defensemen didn’t make the Red Wings roster and was banished to Detroit’s farm team in Grand Rapids. Furthermore, Detroit didn’t show much patience, after only 19 GP in Grand Rapids, they traded Kaski to the Carolina Hurricanes and was summarily sent to their farm team in Charlotte.

Carolina was also a poor fit for Kaski. Carolina was loaded with defensive prospects that were being rated highly. Therefore, to get playing time, Kaski, like Filip Hållander and Filip Lindberg, abandoned his NHL dreams and ran back to Europe and had several good seasons, while Carolina retained his rights.

Date of Birth:September 4, 1995Position:Defense
Age:27Shoots:Right
Place of BirthPori, FinlandHeight:6’-3”
NationalityFinlandWeight:196
Oliwer Kaski Demoggraphics
SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPtsPIM+/-
2017-17HIFK HelsinkiSM-Liiga3624604
2017-18HIFK HelsinkiSM-Liiga499716102
2018-19PelicansSM-Liiga59193251109
2019-20Grand Rapids GriffinsAHL1923512-8
2019-20Charlotte CheckersAHL351192022
2020-21Omsk AvangardKHL58132134143
2021-22Omsk AvangardKHL4713203312-8
2022-23LuganoSwiss-A200442-9
2022-23HV71 JonkopingSHL20461002
Oliwer Kaski Hockey Statistics

Kaski has good size, a really hard shot that has earned him double digits in Goals (G) in most of his pro seasons and he is mobile.

This summer Carolina relinquished their rights to Kaski. He is still under contract to play one more season for HV71 Jonkoping but the SHL finishes their season before the NHL. I would seriously consider tempting Kaski back across the pond. The big Finn, at 27 is now entering his prime as a Defenseman. He may not come as cheap as he was in 2019 but he certainly would be cheaper than most of the NHL veterans that Dubas and Sullivan will chase. In an environment where cost is most certainly part of the equation of every team, Kaski should be considered as an answer for the short term and long term.

Will Butcher

Will Butcher Left-Handed Defenseman (LHD)

I wanted the team to sign Will Butcher when he first left College. Therefore, I have no problem with the signing of Butcher; at least in theory. He is a a Sullivan-type player and actually may statistically play well during the regular season, in Sullivan’s opposite world. Even with a more reasonable Coach, the signing of Butcher could be of a benefit in Wilkes Barre – Scranton (WBS) and a better option for call up than Chad Ruhwedel.

Date of Birth:January 6, 1995Position:Defense
Age:27Shoots:Left
Place of BirthSun Prairie, Wisconsin, USAHeight:5’-10”
NationalityUSAWeight:195
WIll Butcher’s Demographics
SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPtsPIM+/-
2017-18New Jersey DevilsNHL815394481
2018-19New Jersey DevilsNHL784263018-17
2019-20New Jersey DevilsNHL56417216-8
2020-21New Jersey DevilsNHL23110112-3
2021-22Buffalo SabresNHL372680-10
2022-23Texas StarsAHL65637431611
Will Butcher’s Hockey Statistics

The New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres teams that Butchered toiled on were very bad teams. If Dubas could continue to improve the team’s roster, bringing in more size to protect the smaller players, then Butcher could even return to the flash and promise he showed in 2017-18.

Conclusions

Rick Buker asked the question (a couple of days ago) are the Penguins a better team now than they were 2-weeks ago. Iin my usual verbose manner, rambled around a bit when I responded to him, but the Reader’s Digest version of my answer is that I do think the team did get better in terms of its future; not MUCH BETTER as some talking heads are preaching, but they are definitely moving in a better direction. If Dubas could manage to lure Kaski back to the NHL, I would have a very positive outlook for the future, even though Dubas left way too many better prospects on the board in the first round of the draft.

However, in the immediate future, this coming season, they really are not any better than the team that lost its final 2 games to bottom teams in the league when all they needed was an Over-Time Loss (OTL), to make it to the big dance. The team is still stuck without a legitimate NHL starter. The UFA Goalie the team has signed (or in this case re-signed) has performed from barely adequate to downright miserable after game 22 of every season he has played in.

Even if Dubas finds a way to trade for Erik Karlsson, I don’t see a Stanley Cup in the future of this team. Yes, I could easily see them make a solid regular season run, fade in the stretch run, when Jarry pulls his regular season slump, and then get knocked out in the first round, continuing Sullivan’s streak of first round futility.

This team lacks the generational talents, in their prime, to impose Sullivan’s inverted strategies effectively.

The Other Rick

View Comments

  • The Other Rick
    I think one thing we need to keep in mind when trying to add players from opposing
    teams by way of a trade or Free Agency is those particular players may not have an
    interest in signing with the Pen's. The point I'm trying to make is Dubas may have
    preferred other options but had to settle for his Plan B, OR C. Often times we look at
    the players salary and term and wonder why he took this player over someone we
    felt was cheaper and a better fit - it doesn't always mean that his first priority wasn't
    to try and sign the cheaper of the two but the player and his agent felt differently
    about the players opportunity or fit in Pittsburgh. It happens all the time.

    • Hey Mike,

      I do hear what you are saying. In FA terms, those players can go where they please and let's face it, Pgh is not that attractive of a team anymore and all the really good players have some level of NTC, so again, Pgh isn't so attractive anymore. However, my plan B or C would be, Okay Jarry, this is all you are worth. After 22 Games you are not even quite average. If we want to win, you aren't the answer. If you want to walk, go, be my guest. I am not overpaying you. I will stay in house with cheaper players and go out and get defensemen capable of insulating the Goalies I have that are effectively as good as you but cheaper.

      The resources now allocated to Jarry would have been better spent elsewhere. Since our Goalies will not be able to really win us many games down the stretch, that money should have been spent on Defensemen and/or Forwards that would help us win down the stretch and in the playoffs.

      • The Other Rick
        I agree 100% on Jarry. He's being over paid. Like you I have hope that by signing
        him we can trade him. Keeping my fingers crossed.
        By the way - great work on the blog by yourself and Rick.

  • Hey Other Rick,

    Great stuff...really intriguing look at Jarry's splits.

    Like you, I was a bit surprised by the signing...both $$$ and term. But I have to think this decision wasn't made in haste or in a vacuum...that Dubas consulted with the coaching staff and Andy Chiodo and perhaps even the medical staff before going ahead with it.

    I envisioned Dubas going with more of a goaltender-by-committee approach, kind of like Vegas did with Logan Thompson, Adin Hill and Laurent Brossoit. Perhaps subtly he is with Jarry, Nedeljkovic, DeSmith and Hellberg. Although if that's the case, why sign Jarry to a big deal?

    Thanks for the background on Kaski. I know you always liked him, especially for his shot.

    We'll see how things plays out. Again, I have a feeling Dubas is a long way from finished. In fact, I think he'll prove to be a lot like Rutherford in that regard, tinkering and tweaking on the fly if he thinks it will improve the team.

    Rick

    • Consider this Rick and Jim,

      So far over the life of his current contract, McDavid has made $80 million dollars and played 360 Games in that time. That is $222,222.2 per game. Now, let's look at Jarry, he has shown over the life of his career, he is only capable of playing 22 good games a season. He ranges from slightly below average to downright awful after that point. That means Dubas, in effect will have the Penguins pay Jarry $5.375 million for his 22 effective games per year or $244318.2 per game or $22,096 more per game than Edmonton will pay McDavid.

      Now my question for you is, are you really okay with paying Jarry more than McDavid? Jarry is a back-up, nothing more and I don't care what happens 5 years from now, right here, right now, our Penguins once again overpaid an under-performing veteran.

      I am no fish. My attention span is more than 3s. I do remember the news conference after this past season when Sullivan acknowledge Jarry was injured and that neither surgery, nor rehab was going to help the Goalies chronic condition. So, if a healthy Jarry wasn't able to play more than 22 effective games, odds are that the damaged goods will fare worse. And good luck unloading him when the rest of the league realizes that Jarry is damaged goods and a Millstone.

      PT Barnum may have said there is a Sucker born every minute. barring divine intervention, Dubas won't find any suckers to take Jeff Carter, nor will he find one to take Jarry when Jarry once again tanks.

    • Hi Rick,Hi Coach
      The reason i am not to worried about the Jarry signing is I believe the Goalie that Dubas really wanted,he signed elsewhere early in the first day of free agency and he went to a plan B. Plus reports up here said that the Ducks wanted to much for Gibson and Dubas decided on a different strategy.
      What we do not know is that Jarry's new contract is NOT a Full No Movement Contract and he can be traded if need be.
      Dubas gave him a 5 year term so that when the Cap increases the next few years 5.3 million for a goalie will seem cheap .Especially if he still has 3-4 years left on his contract.
      Another key point is guys if Dubas let Jarry go and he signed elsewhere and we had a situation where some really good Goalies will NOT come to Pittsburgh because they do not want to wait 3 years to win another cup or they realize after 5 years of missing the play offs and the defense corps in front of them is terrible......everyone one of us would be screaming to fire the know nothing General manager/President !!!! The average fan would be very upset.
      I agree with you Coach about how Jarry starts well and usually fades come spring time.Plus all the other deficiencies you mentioned many times but given the situation Dubas did the best he could. Plus personally i don't believe Jarry will be long term in Pittsburgh. You can bet he is on a short leash.

      I like the Butcher signing as it will help WB Pens and he still might be able to recover his game in a different environment

      Happy July 4 th Guys.... Your right Rick... Dubas is not finished...The best is yet to come.

      Cheers
      JIM

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