Dubas’ Trade Strategy: Out with the Old, In with the New
The Penguins are off to a rough start, to say the least. Over their last six games, they’re 0-5-1 and now sit at the bottom of the division, ranking 31st in the league, just above the Sharks. At this rate, they’re looking like a lottery team.
So, what should the Penguins do? Fire the coach? Most coaches would’ve been fired for less, so what’s the holdup?
Well, according to sources within the organization, Fenway Sports Group (the Penguins’ current owners) view Mike Sullivan as their “Bill Belichick.” So, his seat isn’t exactly hot—more like lukewarm. And you can’t exactly trade the core players like Crosby, Malkin, and Letang, who will all retire as Penguins.
But, you can force Mike Sullivan to play a team that fits his fast pace forechecking style better via trading “away” some players. As Sullivan has a predisposition for rotten old geezers. Which he calls “Veteran respect”.
Okay. I may be a bit facetious there, but seriously, Jeff Carter had no business being as high in the line up and playing as many minutes for as long as he did.
To make matters worse, this roster has a ton of no-movement clauses, courtesy of our old friend Ron Hextall.
So, if you’re Kyle Dubas, what are your options? Keeping this roster as-is likely means staying a lottery team. Sullivan has already experimented with countless line combinations, and he’s been lambasting the players’ defensive mistakes during practices—because they’re making the same errors there too. His voice seems lost in the locker room, but firing him is apparently off the table.
Interestingly, many of the players are actually producing decently offensively, which means their trade value might be higher than fans and Pittsburgh sports media think. There have even been rumors of a couple of teams interested in Tristan Jarry. From the perspective of other GMs, a bad player on a struggling team might shine in a new environment.
I think a lot of General Managers wanted to see last year, “Is the player I want bad, or are the Penguins bad.” And the answer to that is now obvious. This might be the perfect time to capitalize on their value and refresh the roster.
If I were Dubas, and if this team is heading toward lottery status, I’d start selling off assets and give younger players a chance. They’re hungrier, faster, and—when given the opportunity due to injuries—often help the team go on winning streaks when they’re in the lineup alongside the core players. Coincidence? I think not.
Do I think that this is a guarantee, no of course not. They could call players up or play whatever they get in a trade and still be terrible. But what’s the point of stealing roster spots from younger talent if you will be bad anyway? Especially if you take the shot and it pays off?
While there’s no guarantee this will solve the team’s issues, it certainly seems better than clogging the lineup with old and slow veterans. Why not give younger talent a shot? You will be in no different of a spot. And even if you end up a lottery team, that works in your favor anyway, as you need to bring in young talented players for the future. Looks like a win win to me. The only reason you’re trying to compete at all, is because that’s what Fenway wants, and they’re trying to avoid a full rebuild.
Here are three players I think could and most likely will be traded sooner rather than later:
Tristian Jarry:
Jarry might not bring in a huge return, given his recent circumstances, but if there’s interest, you do it—even within the division. A change of scenery might do him some good, and it’s clear he doesn’t want to play here.
Lars Eller:
Yes, Eller has been one of the few bright spots, showing solid play and some scoring ability. He’s also the only one who seems to be able to see the issues with the team, and is driving any sort of spark for the Penguins. But that also means his trade value is high. Moving him could make room for a backlog of centers who are close to being NHL-ready, like Tristan Broz and Ville Koivunen (with Ponomarev as a future option once he’s healthy). Imagine a third line of Puljujarvi – Broz – Ponomarev, for instance. This lineup has potential and a lot more upside than a random assembly of veterans. And if it doesn’t work, they’re no worse off.
Kevin Hayes:
Though the Penguins just traded for him, Hayes is playing well, and with two teams covering part of his cap, he’s now at a more manageable $3.57 million. Columbus could be a good fit for him, especially with the recent loss of his close friend Johnny Gaudreau, which might make the idea of sporting the Blue Jackets colors a honor. The Jackets also have cap space, thanks to a league exception they’re actually currently below the cap. It might not be the perfect fit, but it’s one worth exploring, if Hayes is interested, he might feel the opposite about it. I think there is still other options for teams as well if Columbus does not work out.
(I have to put this in. Rest in peace, Matthew & Johnny Gaudreau—one of my favorite players and a truly wonderful person—Sending all my love to the entire Gaudreau family during this difficult time)
And as a potential bonus trade, there’s Erik Karlsson. Moving him would be challenging due to his high cap hit, some teams might believe they could get more out of him than the Penguins have, even with his recent struggles. It’s a complex situation that would require Dubas to be very creative—just as he was when acquiring Karlsson. My intuition says Dubas is exploring options, though any move involving Karlsson could take time and isn’t likely in the immediate future.
I won’t speculate on the returns for these players, as it’s unclear what their current trade values are or which prospects the Penguins might be targeting—that’s likely a topic for a future article. Right now, the priority is opening up roster spots for younger talent to bring energy and speed back to the lineup. That said, we might expect a bottom-pairing defenseman, some under-the-radar prospects, and perhaps even an early-to-mid-20s NHL forward who is underutilized or needs more opportunity.
On the other hand, there are a few players I don’t see moving anytime soon—at least not before the trade deadline. Rickard Rakell, for example, is playing well with Crosby, and his chemistry with Sid boosts his value to the team. Michael Bunting, although he doesn’t have much trade value right now, brings a physical presence, he goes to the front of the net and he’s just annoying for the other team and that is what Penguins need. Ryan Graves has been underwhelming, and his contract makes him difficult to move, Lastly, Noel Acciari, a Dubas favorite, contributes toughness and depth scoring, in the same vein as Bunting, making the Penguins more difficult to play against.
Overall, trading off some veterans to bring in younger players could provide the fresh energy this team desperately needs. They might not be able to keep up with the league’s faster teams as they could in their prime, but there’s no reason they can’t play smart, high-IQ hockey that maximizes their experience while blending in youthful speed and enthusiasm. And if they get enough younger players (Or play them), they might not end up being slow at all…..
While I’m no fan of keeping a veteran-laden team together (especially this one), I’d be a little leery of promoting the kids too quickly.
I do think Sam Poulin is about as ready as he’s ever going to be. Move someone and give him a legit shot. The rub there? I don’t think Mike Sullivan is very high on him. And if you're not a Sully guy?
Can you say five minutes of ice time a night?
As for kids like Broz, McGroarty and Koivunen? I’d like to see them get more development time with the Baby Pens. Blomqvist, too. Even though he’s been our best goalie so far, I fear he’ll get fried playing behind our no-defense defense. I don’t want to see him get ruined.
I don’t necessarily trust Sullivan to handle these kids, either. I think he’s still locked into a win-now mindset and, given the option, he’ll play a veteran over a kid every time unless the kid's exceptional.
You almost need to strip the veterans out of the organization (as you suggest) so he’d be forced to play the kids. Which I suspect will happen come the trade deadline if not sooner...like after the holidays.
I’m going to double-back to something I alluded to in an earlier article. I don’t think the Penguins as an organization have a clear-cut direction. You’ve got an ownership group that still expects the team to be competitive and keeps making statements to that effect. (How detached from reality can you get?)
You’ve got a veteran core who would also like that to be the case, although I’m sure the rose-colored glasses have been stripped away. And you’ve got Dubas, who pretty much set this team up to fail so he could continue to accumulate draft capital.
Basically, a mixed bunch of competing aims and intentions. Which only adds to the confusion of the current situation.
Rick
Hey Caleb,
Interesting post.
I first alluded to this about a year ago, but the S.S. Penguin is the modern version of the Titanic. Since 2017-2018, there have been 3 GMs, 4 sets of assistant Coaches, and 122 Skaters and Goalies. but 1 Head Coach and only 4 of those 122 players. Three of those 122 players won Stanley Cups without the Coach. I am not going to argue with you when you write that FSG is stoned on the Sullivan Kool-Aid but it really doesn't matter what the team does in terms of trades or any other maneuvering, so long as FSG revels in Sullivan dream-land all will be for naught.
Having said that, barring an immediate turn of a friendly card, I will play the arm-chair GM game.
1) Jarry: Between his poor on Ice performance and worse attitude and penchant for blaming others for everything from GA to injuries, I can't believe anyone would take Jarry. He is a Cancer that I can't see any team willing to trade anything of value. Therefore, I just waive him for permanent burial all the way down to Wheeling (sorry Wheeling but you don't have to play him). My best hope in this situation is that some desperate team, who doesn't want to trade anyone for a Goalie will take a flier on him os a waiver-wire pickup.
If no one bites, I at least save a touch over $1 million in Cap space. If someone does claim the bum I would have over $5 million in Cap space to barter as a 3rd team in a trade line deal when a contender is looking for a rental to put them over the top - so I can maybe garner one or more decent draft picks.
2) Kevin Hayes: I have no problem re-gifting this particular gift. It may be best to deal him now while he looks like he can still score Goals.
3) Bryan Rust: Funny you bring him up Mike, Caleb and I were just talking about him yesterday while he was putting the final touches on this post. I do like Rusty and appreciate all that he did for this team but I agree in theory with you (and I believe Caleb did too when we were talking) trade Rust. Unfortunately, he has a full blown NMC, so that would make matters a bit hairy to trade him. Dubas will have to get creative to get that clause waived. I know it can be done, so I would try, but I won't hold my breath.
4) Rickard Rakell: Like him and he is playing really well, but since we are not likely to make it to the playoffs, he could be dressed up for a really good draft pick.
5) Marcus Pettersson: He may be the best LHD on the Pens but that ain't saying much. He is already a true rental as he approaches his UFA year. He is not worth a number one but I am sort of hoping that a number 2 is possible. It might be a stretch but I would try. And the 2nd round seems to be the Golden round for Dubas. when you look at his draft history, the only round that Dubas has had any real success is his 2nd rounders (look at this years 2 picks Howe and Brunicke)
6) Lars Eller: No disrespect to Eller, he has done more than I would have anticipated, but he would be a perfect low profile guy for a contender. Like Pettersson, he isn't going to garner a No. 1, but I certainly would start by asking for a No.2 for all the same reasons above.
7) I would move Murashov back up to WBS while burying Jarry as deep as possible. Murashov needs to be developed with and against better talent than will be found in the ECHL. Jarry on the other hand is a bum.
Most importantly, as soon as the team has a break in their schedule where they can get some practice time, I dump Sullivan.
I personally think once Rust is healthy the Pen's should look to trade him. He's now 32, and in his 11 years
in the NHL he hasn't been able to stay healthy once for an entire season. Like everyone else on the blog
I love the way Rust plays but watching him the last couple of games prior to getting injured it appeared
to me he lost a step or two. He would be an asset to a team fighting for a playoff spot on there 2nd or
3rd line. Hopefully we would be looking a no worse than a 3rd round pick and possibly a 2nd rounder in
2026. GO DUBAS
Sully's veteran respect reminds me of Team Canada. It worked brilliantly in 2002, when a highly veteran team won Canada's first gold in 50 years. Then I'm 2006 they famously snubbed a rookie named Crosby and went with the veterans again. The game had changed. Canada was old and slow. The rest is history. Veterans are good if they can still play at a high level, but who cares about a guy that once scored 30 goals 14 years ago if he only got 3 last year? At some point you've gotta ice a team that can play now. Also, veterans aren't born, they're made. If you never play a guy, he'll just get old but never be a veteran. It's time for the Pens to get busy winning or get busy rebuilding. Either way, Sully needs to adapt to his current situation.
View Comments
Hey Caleb,
Great article as always!
While I’m no fan of keeping a veteran-laden team together (especially this one), I’d be a little leery of promoting the kids too quickly.
I do think Sam Poulin is about as ready as he’s ever going to be. Move someone and give him a legit shot. The rub there? I don’t think Mike Sullivan is very high on him. And if you're not a Sully guy?
Can you say five minutes of ice time a night?
As for kids like Broz, McGroarty and Koivunen? I’d like to see them get more development time with the Baby Pens. Blomqvist, too. Even though he’s been our best goalie so far, I fear he’ll get fried playing behind our no-defense defense. I don’t want to see him get ruined.
I don’t necessarily trust Sullivan to handle these kids, either. I think he’s still locked into a win-now mindset and, given the option, he’ll play a veteran over a kid every time unless the kid's exceptional.
You almost need to strip the veterans out of the organization (as you suggest) so he’d be forced to play the kids. Which I suspect will happen come the trade deadline if not sooner...like after the holidays.
I’m going to double-back to something I alluded to in an earlier article. I don’t think the Penguins as an organization have a clear-cut direction. You’ve got an ownership group that still expects the team to be competitive and keeps making statements to that effect. (How detached from reality can you get?)
You’ve got a veteran core who would also like that to be the case, although I’m sure the rose-colored glasses have been stripped away. And you’ve got Dubas, who pretty much set this team up to fail so he could continue to accumulate draft capital.
Basically, a mixed bunch of competing aims and intentions. Which only adds to the confusion of the current situation.
Rick
Hey Caleb,
Interesting post.
I first alluded to this about a year ago, but the S.S. Penguin is the modern version of the Titanic. Since 2017-2018, there have been 3 GMs, 4 sets of assistant Coaches, and 122 Skaters and Goalies. but 1 Head Coach and only 4 of those 122 players. Three of those 122 players won Stanley Cups without the Coach. I am not going to argue with you when you write that FSG is stoned on the Sullivan Kool-Aid but it really doesn't matter what the team does in terms of trades or any other maneuvering, so long as FSG revels in Sullivan dream-land all will be for naught.
Having said that, barring an immediate turn of a friendly card, I will play the arm-chair GM game.
1) Jarry: Between his poor on Ice performance and worse attitude and penchant for blaming others for everything from GA to injuries, I can't believe anyone would take Jarry. He is a Cancer that I can't see any team willing to trade anything of value. Therefore, I just waive him for permanent burial all the way down to Wheeling (sorry Wheeling but you don't have to play him). My best hope in this situation is that some desperate team, who doesn't want to trade anyone for a Goalie will take a flier on him os a waiver-wire pickup.
If no one bites, I at least save a touch over $1 million in Cap space. If someone does claim the bum I would have over $5 million in Cap space to barter as a 3rd team in a trade line deal when a contender is looking for a rental to put them over the top - so I can maybe garner one or more decent draft picks.
2) Kevin Hayes: I have no problem re-gifting this particular gift. It may be best to deal him now while he looks like he can still score Goals.
3) Bryan Rust: Funny you bring him up Mike, Caleb and I were just talking about him yesterday while he was putting the final touches on this post. I do like Rusty and appreciate all that he did for this team but I agree in theory with you (and I believe Caleb did too when we were talking) trade Rust. Unfortunately, he has a full blown NMC, so that would make matters a bit hairy to trade him. Dubas will have to get creative to get that clause waived. I know it can be done, so I would try, but I won't hold my breath.
4) Rickard Rakell: Like him and he is playing really well, but since we are not likely to make it to the playoffs, he could be dressed up for a really good draft pick.
5) Marcus Pettersson: He may be the best LHD on the Pens but that ain't saying much. He is already a true rental as he approaches his UFA year. He is not worth a number one but I am sort of hoping that a number 2 is possible. It might be a stretch but I would try. And the 2nd round seems to be the Golden round for Dubas. when you look at his draft history, the only round that Dubas has had any real success is his 2nd rounders (look at this years 2 picks Howe and Brunicke)
6) Lars Eller: No disrespect to Eller, he has done more than I would have anticipated, but he would be a perfect low profile guy for a contender. Like Pettersson, he isn't going to garner a No. 1, but I certainly would start by asking for a No.2 for all the same reasons above.
7) I would move Murashov back up to WBS while burying Jarry as deep as possible. Murashov needs to be developed with and against better talent than will be found in the ECHL. Jarry on the other hand is a bum.
Most importantly, as soon as the team has a break in their schedule where they can get some practice time, I dump Sullivan.
I personally think once Rust is healthy the Pen's should look to trade him. He's now 32, and in his 11 years
in the NHL he hasn't been able to stay healthy once for an entire season. Like everyone else on the blog
I love the way Rust plays but watching him the last couple of games prior to getting injured it appeared
to me he lost a step or two. He would be an asset to a team fighting for a playoff spot on there 2nd or
3rd line. Hopefully we would be looking a no worse than a 3rd round pick and possibly a 2nd rounder in
2026. GO DUBAS
Sully's veteran respect reminds me of Team Canada. It worked brilliantly in 2002, when a highly veteran team won Canada's first gold in 50 years. Then I'm 2006 they famously snubbed a rookie named Crosby and went with the veterans again. The game had changed. Canada was old and slow. The rest is history. Veterans are good if they can still play at a high level, but who cares about a guy that once scored 30 goals 14 years ago if he only got 3 last year? At some point you've gotta ice a team that can play now. Also, veterans aren't born, they're made. If you never play a guy, he'll just get old but never be a veteran. It's time for the Pens to get busy winning or get busy rebuilding. Either way, Sully needs to adapt to his current situation.