Has Kyle Dubas Failed the Penguins?

As the Penguins free-fall toward a second straight non-playoff season, an increasing number of folks are pointing an accusatory finger at POHO/GM Kyle Dubas. After all, he turned over roughly half the roster after taking charge last summer. This team has his fingerprints all over it. It’s his baby, so to speak. Or at least his attempt to resuscitate the baby.

More to the point, has Dubas failed the Pens?

The results sure aren’t what anyone expected. In the deepest, darkest recesses of a doubting mind I thought we might be this bad, primarily due to an aging roster. But a more hopeful part of me also thought we might challenge for third place in the Metro, especially with mercurial All-Star Erik Karlsson on board.

At the very least, I figured we’d be in the mix for a wild-card spot.

Obviously that isn’t happening.

Hindsight’s always 20/20. But looking back over my shoulder, I’d say Dubas made mostly the right moves and got the wrong results.

Put another way? Everything that could’ve gone wrong pretty much has.

The Karlsson trade? Truly a stroke of genius, or so I thought. To acquire a three-time Norris Trophy winner while dealing three contacts/players we didn’t want (Jeff Petry, Mikael Granlund, Jan Rutta) was the epitome of the I’ll-take-your-good-guy-for-all-my-bad-guys trade.

Expecting Karlsson to repeat his 25-goal, 101-point season was folly. But 15 goals and 70 points while helping to boost our power play surely seemed doable.

With only eight goals and 46 points, he’s not even in the same galaxy as those toned-down expectations.

Signing Ryan Graves, arguably the top defenseman on the free-agent market, looked like a great move at the time. Although plus/minus is generally devalued as an indicator in this enlightened era of advanced stats, the fact remains that Graves registered a plus-34 last season and led the NHL with a plus-40 in 2019-20. That simply doesn’t happen with smoke and mirrors.

His metrics have always been solid as well. Yet Graves has struggled mightily to fit in here.

Acquired for a third-round pick, Reilly Smith looked like an ideal replacement for Jason Zucker when he and Evgeni Malkin displayed great early season chemistry. Then…pfft…the synergy vanished along with Smith’s productivity.

To sum up, Dubas’ three marquee pickups have fallen astonishingly short of the mark.

Unfortunately, it only gets worse. Correctly identifying a lack of grit and gristle, Dubas signed hard-scrabble forward Noel Acciari to do the heavy lifting. “Cookie” does the dirty work as advertised, but has struggled to provide even a modicum of offense.

Fellow free-agent signing and defensive specialist Matt Nieto blew out a knee. Vinnie Hinostroza looked like a nice, under-the-radar depth signing, but failed to gain any traction or favor with coach Mike Sullivan. Waiver pickups John Ludvig and Jansen Harkins added toughness and grit but have experienced their struggles, the latter scoring goals and the former preventing them.

Ironically, the move I least cared for…signing Lars Eller…has worked out the best. The veteran center has displayed moxie and leadership while registering the fifth highest goal total of his career. For the record, Alex Nedeljkovic has been a huge plus as well.

Honestly, the only need I thought Dubas overlooked was depth scoring. To that end, I advocated signing veteran Tomáš Tatar, a move our GM wisely resisted. Actually, given the off-nature of Tatar’s season (only eight goals combined with the Avs and Kraken) he would’ve fit right in.

More recently, Dubas has drawn heat for both the return and timing of the Jake Guentzel trade. Given that Dubas seemed to know all along he wasn’t going to re-up Jake, perhaps valid criticism. Maybe he could’ve wrangled more from Jim Rutherford out in Vancouver had he pulled the trigger on a rumored deal earlier, possibly involving Andrei Kuzmenko and/or Nils Höglander. We can only surmise about what went on behind the scenes and what was on the table.

As for the return he received from the ‘Canes? Let’s not be too quick to judge. While no Guentzel, Michael Bunting is a solid, spirited player who’s provided what little life and production we’ve had of late. Keep an eye on Ville Koivunen, who recently scored a hat trick and is tearing up the SM-liiga.

Dubas’ biggest shortfall to my eye? What appears to be his blind loyalty to Sullivan. For the better part of two seasons, the Pens have been a jumbled, disorganized, dispirited, mistake-prone mess. Some of that falls on the players. Some of it is due to the talent (or lack of) on hand, which is the GM’s bailiwick. Much of it falls on Sullivan. He’s the one calling the shots.

Back in the early ‘90s, the Steelers needed Hall-of-Fame coach Chuck Noll to “get on with his life’s work,” to use one of his favored expressions, so the team could move forward under spirited young coach Bill Cowher.

While I don’t expect the Pens to execute a Steeler-esque turnaround under Sullivan’s eventual successor, a new voice and a fresh approach could do wonders, just as Cowher’s did for the football black-and-gold.

A final thought.

There’s something to be said for having a team built largely with home-grown talent, or at the very least, talent developed from within the organization. The pre-Cup teams of the late ‘80s and early 2000s were stocked with young players who had the skating Penguins logo virtually tattooed over their hearts.

Call it pride in the jersey.

There’s value in that.

As currently constructed, the Pens more closely resemble a collection of mercenaries, gleaned from different organizations. I’m not saying they don’t care. But perhaps when push comes to shove, they don’t quite have the same bond or vested interest in representing the team and the city.

The unfortunate end game of a championship cycle that’s run its course.

Which leads me back to my original question.

All things considered, I think Dubas has done his best to affect a turnaround. However, he’s not a miracle worker and the die has long been cast, forged in a hail of draft picks peddled for one last shot at the Cup.

The real work…and the real test of his stewardship…begins this summer.