Anyone who’s read PenguinPoop for the past month or so knows I’m not exactly bullish on the moves POHO/GM Kyle Dubas has made this summer. To say nothing of the Penguins’ chances of returning to the playoffs.
Indeed, my reaction to the Kevin Hayes trade and subsequent free-agent signings has been almost uniformly negative. In many ways, it feels like Dubas has taken a page from the baseball Pirates by acquiring declining players who’ve peaked or guys who never had a peak to begin with. Kind of like picking through a rummage sale, hoping to find a hidden gem or two among the junk and costume jewelry.
However, contrary to my knee-jerk reactions, could some of his moves actually pan out and help the team?
I decided to revisit our three most prominent adds to see if there might be a silver lining shrouded in a decidedly cloudy forecast.
Anthony Beauvillier
By all accounts, including his own, Anthony Beauvillier endured a miserable 2023-24 season. The one-time Islanders mainstay bounced from the Canucks to the Blackhawks and finally on to the Predators at the trade deadline. In the process, managing to eke out a paltry five goals and 17 points in 60 games.
His advanced stats, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, including possession-based metrics such as Corsi, 5v5 shots for and goals for percentage and expected goals for percentage, are almost uniformly poor.
His JFresh WAR chart? A sea of red.
Even when you take into account the fact that he’s played most of his career for counter-punching teams, not good.
Yet there are some positives to latch onto. The former first-round pick (28th overall in ’15) boasts speed, skill and a competitive nature that belies his 180-pound frame. Beauvillier’s scored as many as 21 goals in a season and was on pace to take a run at 30 during the Covid shortened ’20-21 campaign. He’s netted 18 goals on three other occasions, as recently as ’22-23.
Put in perspective, Michael Bunting-type production.
Like Bunting, Beauvillier has experience skating with top-line talents such as the Isles’ Matt Barzal. Squint your eyes real tight? You can see a potential fit for the 27-year-old left wing beside Sidney Crosby.
Perhaps that’s what Dubas sees, too.
Kevin Hayes
Finding himself in the same sinking boat as Beauvillier, the 32-year-old Hayes struggled to find a niche with the Blues last season, tallying 13 goals and 29 points. Positively pedestrian for a player raking in $7 million a year. This on the heels of being run out of Philly on a rail by hard-line skipper John Tortorella.
Needless to say, Hayes’ reputation has taken a hit.
Like Beauvillier, his underlying metrics are nothing to write home about. The fact that the Massachusetts native is neither fast nor physical makes you wonder what type a fit he’ll be for Mike Sullivan’s puck-retrieval system.
However, the rangy 6’5” 216-pounder has a history of solid-if-not-spectacular production, averaging 19 goals and 47 points per 82-game season over the course of his 10-year NHL career. He notched 54 points, including 18 goals, as recently as ’22-23. He’s a decent playmaker and versatile, too, able to play wing or center.
If Hayes is able to score at close to his career norms? He could provide a much-needed offensive boost, not to mention depth, for our middle-six.
Matt Grzelcyk
Unlike the aforementioned Beauvillier and Hayes, prior to last season’s pronounced plummet, Matt Grzelcyk’s underlying numbers were quite good. Excellent, in fact.
Although his offensive output has never jumped off the page…think Marcus Pettersson’s boxcars…the former Bruin moves the puck well and is good on the transition. As recently as ’22-23 he was a plus-46, and he’s topped plus-20 on two other occasions. While it surely hasn’t hurt that Grzelcyk skated for some strong teams in Boston, impressive nonetheless.
(It should be noted we’ve seen this dynamic before with Ryan Graves. Last summer’s marquee free-agent was a league-leading plus-40 in ’19-20 and a plus-34 in ’22-23 before faltering with the black and gold last season.)
Grzelcyk admits he lost his confidence after struggling through an injury-plagued ’23-24 campaign and hopes to regain it in the ‘Burgh. He should receive plenty of opportunities early on, perhaps even slotting next to Kris Letang on the second pairing.
My chief concern is his lack of girth. The pocket-sized (5’10” 176) defender isn’t noted for his physicality or ability to keep the net-front clear. Already areas of notable weakness among our lightweight blue-line corps.
In closing, all three players are hoping to bounce back following off years and should have something to prove, which could in turn provide a spark for a notoriously languid team. If the troika produces at close to their career norms, it’ll be like found money.
Dubas’ll look like a genius, too.
Dubas signed up 8 AHL player’s to a two way contract for 775,000 each. You take that figure times 8 it’s close to 8 million dollars. He could have used the money to sign up two NHL type players. He also signed up a so called enforcer Immna who hasn’t won a fight yet. The Pens are not a physical team that competes in a physical division.teflon Mike.
Amen
Hey Rick,
I do see some potential, potential that in all probability will never be realized. The potential I see in this team resides in the handful of true prospects buried deep beneath a weight of the fossils that Penguins’ management is bent upon piling up with signing one retread after another in the gamblers wish (not hope) of filing an inside straight.
Anthony Beauvillier will be 27 this season; the extreme edge of prime for a forward in hockey. If he had been a superstar, then there could be a feint probability of a return to form, but Beauvillier has averaged less than 1/2 a point per game over his 8 seasons. He may have been a first round draft pick, but like so many 1st round picks, he failed to deliver and has been a journeyman netting a very pedestrian 116 G in 550 GP, 246 Pnts, and is a -20 for his efforts. He is also in the negative for his Tk to Gv stats 220 to 256 respectively. If Sullivan and does skate Beauvillier with Crosby, Crosby may help the former Islander to have a bounce back season but at the cost of Crosby having a down season baby-sitting the aging also-ran.
Kevin Hayes will be 32 this season, his 5th season since he exited his prime years. Since passing the magical 27 mark, Hayes has been better offensively than Beauvillier scoring 53 G and 145 A in 263 GP but has been a -44.
Hayes may find a way to score near 20 G and 41 Pts but both he and Beauvillier will be a drain, a millstone around the necks of Crosby and Malkin. The two-headed monster deserves far better to be their team-mates on the back end of their careers. Crosby and Malkin deserve players that either help carry the load for them or represent future players that these storied Penguins could mentor, adding to the Crosby – Malkin legacy. Crosby and Malkin do not deserve to drown in a sea of underperforming, marginal veterans.
As for Matt Grzelcyk, as a defenseman, he still is in his prime. Defenseman do not reach their prime years until 27 and that tie frame lasts until they are about 32. However, he is another purse swinging Ruth Buzzi. He Blks less than shot per game and Hts less than 1 opponent per game. And even though he doesn’t Gv too many pucks, he Tk even less away from opponents so that his Gv-Tk is far underwater. You note his +46 season, but that wasn’t the highest on the team. Lindholm had +49 and Carlo was +44; 3-players, 3 Defensemen were over +40 on that team, no doubt from the stellar Goaltending of Ullmark and Swayman – the team Sv% was 0.931%. If Tristan Jarry isn’t traded, don’t expect anything near a +40 season.
No Rick, where I see potential is in 3 Goalies, Blomqvist, Murashov, and Gauthier, ably backed – up by Ned. This potential will be nullified by Sullivan refusing to allow any of those Gs a chance so long as he has Jarry and Filip Larson to lean on. Even if Jarry is traded I can see the Archaeologist snubbing the kids in favor of Larson.
I also see at least a moderate increase in scoring if Tristan Broz, Ville Koivunen, Vasiliy Ponomarev, and Braden Yager are given legitimate chances to make the roster. However, I see Sullivan burying them as deep as he can beneath fossils who he will hypocritically hold less accountable for their mistakes than he will take the true prospects to task.