It’s that time of year, folks. The leaves are beginning to fall and a brand new hockey season is upon us. Final cuts have been made and rosters have been set. Hopes for a successful season spring eternal.
But how realistic are those hopes? I thought I’d peer into my admittedly cracked crystal ball and see what it foretells for our Penguins.
The mist is starting dissipate. I see a number. Ninety-four points!
Check that. Another number’s beginning to emerge. Eight-eight points. Same as last year.
Darn.
No wait…that one’s fading, too. Yet another number’s forming. This one says 76 points.
Yikes!
My apologies for the silly lead-in. The truth of the matter? All three of these results could be valid, depending on how the chips fall.
Here are a few factors that could cause us to rise like the Phoenix from the ashes of two non-playoff campaigns, maintain an even strain, or tumble to new lows.
The Core Four
Our Core Four of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson are back for another go-around. If they’re able to repeat their performances from last season, I believe the supporting cast has improved to enough to propel the Pens to a playoff berth.
The bad news? To quote Rocky Balboa, these guys aren’t as young as spring time. Indeed, all are in their mid-to-late 30s. As we know all-too-well, Father Time is undefeated.
Too, the foursome collectively missed nary a game last season. Not to be pessimistic, but the chances of them repeating that feat are probably slim and none.
Sid is Sid. Barring injury, I think he’ll keep on keepin’ on. As for Geno, I’m fearful this is the year the wheels fall off his wagon. That’s in no way, shape or form meant to be a knock. It’s just that he’s 38.
As superbly conditioned as he is, could Tanger be in for a slowdown as well?
The Power Play
An unmitigated disaster last season. We managed just 40 man-advantage goals in 262 tries, an ultra-dismal 15.27 conversion rate. Even worse, we yielded a staggering 12 short-handed goals.
We would’ve been better served to decline penalties.
The man in charge of the fiasco, assistant coach Todd Reirden, is gone. Replaced by former Sharks coach and close Mike Sullivan associate David Quinn.
Upbeat and energetic, Quinn is stressing tempo and movement, aspects that were all-too-often lacking last season.
A function of our collective age?
Maybe.
Let’s hope Quinn has some answers. A functional power play could make all the difference.
Depth Scoring
The one area where I think we’ve improved, perhaps dramatically. Adding the likes of high-profile rookie Rutger McGroarty, Kevin Hayes (excellent set-up man), Cody Glass and a hale and healthy Jesse Puljujärvi, not to mention shifting Noel Acciari to wing, could and should greatly boost our bottom-six production.
I can envision us rolling four capable lines, a huge departure from the past two seasons.
Whether that’s enough to compensate for perceived weaknesses remains to be seen.
Defense
An area to potentially fret over.
First, the good. Marcus Pettersson is as solid and dependable as they come. I really liked what I saw of Jack St. Ivany, who adds size, steadiness and a dash of physicality. In an admittedly brief sample size, I thought he had a settling effect on erratic and enigmatic Ryan Graves, his projected third-pairing partner.
Newcomer Matt Grzelcyk could be a nice tandem-mate for Letang, who played very well for most of last season before tailing off, the decline due at least in part to injury.
The wild card and the one I worry about the most aside from Graves?
Karlsson.
There are times when dreadful doesn’t begin to describe his defensive play, and I use that term loosely. Fortunately, Pettersson’s as good as they come at covering up, but I’m not sure EK65 (EEK65?) does enough offensively to compensate for his gaffes.
Sullivan really seems to like depth defender Ryan Shea. He’s a little too plain vanilla and physically unassertive for my taste.
Goaltending
Back in 1974-75, the Pens began the season with the unproven duo of Gary Inness and Bob Johnson guarding the twine.
“I’m not worried about our goaltending,” insisted then-GM Jack Button.
“No, he’s scared to death,” quipped a rival GM.
I confess, our present-day tandem of Tristan Jarry and rookie Joel Blomqvist gives me the heebie-jeebies. To the extent that I think goaltending could be our Achilles heel. The facet of our game that could consign the Good Ship Penguin to the depths of the Metro Division and Eastern Conference.
I simply don’t trust Jarry to come through when it really matters. He seems to have developed a penchant for allowing the goal you don’t want to allow, when you don’t want to allow it.
Nothing against Blomqvist, who earned AHL All-Star honors as a rookie pro last season, but that porous five-minute stretch against the Sabres in our first preseason game is still banging around in my head. Although he performed well in subsequent outings, I’m still reserving judgement.
Bottom line? I’ll feel a whole lot better when Alex Nedeljkovic returns from IR.
Prediction
I’m going to stay on the sunny side and predict a 92-point finish. Whether that’s enough to claim a playoff spot remains to be seen.
In the Metro, the depleted ‘Canes and aging Islanders could sag. However, the Devils and Capitals improved by leaps and bounds. Over in the Atlantic, the Senators and maybe the Sabres could be primed for a step forward.
Once again, it could all come down to the wire, with the Pens fighting for their playoff lives during the final week of the season.
Rick
A couple of things – First I do think our bottom six will be slightly improved over last season. After
that there are to many negatives for my liking. See below.
1) Other than McGroarty, where is the youth that was promised?? Aside from Glass, Hayes and
Beauvillier it’s same old, same old.
2) Rust can’t stay healthy
3) Our 2nd PP unit looks extremely weak and how in God’s name is Bunting not on the 1st unit???
4) Defensively there going with the same old, same old except for the undersized Grzelcyk. We let
Ludvig go and keep Shea “Head scratcher”. One of Sullivans boys who played his college hockey
at Boston U. You ever notice it’s the better teams in the league that find value in these types of
players?? Ludvig goes to Colorado, Friedman to the Canucks, etc….etc…..
4) Toughness, toughness, toughness – they continue to under value the need for a couple of
players that won’t shy away from an occasional fight.
5) Goaltending – Like you I don’t think they have what it takes to get it done.
6) I slightly disagree on Karlson – I think when it appeared we were out of the Playoff picture Sullivan
decided to turn Karlsson loose, and IMO he played his best hockey at both ends of the ice.
MY PREDICTION FOR THE 2024-25 SEASON IS – 86PTS
Hey all.
Just wanted to call your attention to a terrific article on the Trib by Seth Rorabaugh about Mike Sullivan. It’s titled “Won’t change tactics? Won’t play the kids? Penguins coach Mike Sullivan pushes back at critics’ ‘narratives.’ ”
Lifts the veil a bit and provides us a more intimate look at our coach. Extremely well done and insightful. Well worth the read.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Sorry but after reading that article nothing in my mind has changed about our Penguins Coach. The article to me reads like a propaganda press release. Several seasons back when asked about playing prospects he said He didn’t have the time to teach kids, yet in the article you cite he contradicts himself talking about coaches being teachers. Very recently he said he was not going to change his strategies based on what other teams are doing, and in this article he talks about how the game is changing. Everything about that article backtracks comments out of his own mouth and tries to rewrite history.
The only time this team actually played with speed was when they won the first of their back-to-back Cups, before Sullivan had time to install HIS “system”. The very next season, the team was already falling behind. Our Pens checked in with the 2nd worst CORSI of the playoffs. The Capitals crushed them. Only a superhuman performance by MAF got them out of the Divisional finals, a performance that left him beaten and battered so that Murray had to reprise those heroics to a lesser extent.
Sullivan talk out of both sides of his mouth all he wants and those with short memories or who are willing to forget the past and allow propaganda ministers to create false memories for them will buy into the tripe espoused in that article but I don’t forget very much at all. I remember what I saw and what I read.
Hey Rick,
I wanted to do a season preview post myself, Rick but I didn’t. I would like to say that it was because of my schedule that I haven’t had time to deep dive into all our Penguins opponents and evaluate the matchups. Unfortunately, A. I don’t like making excuses, B. Even though it would be true for me to say that my plate is packed, it would be disingenuous to us that as an excuse. The truth of the matter is that my expectations are so low that I don’t want to give up what little time I have on repeating the same complaints as nauseum.
It is hard to predict where the Pens will fall without really looking at all opponents. Some of our Division and Conference rivals got better but some dropped a notch. Unfortunately, so did our Penguins drop a notch.
It is not that I don’t think there are players in the organization because I do. It is just I am seeing the same old song and dance my friend. If not for injuries to Bryan Rust and Alex Nedeljkovic this season’s opening night roster would be roughly a year older than last season’s average age. For every plus there has been at least one minus.
In the end, if the team stays relatively healthy and Sullivan can play his fossil’s like is his wont, I see the team finishing maybe a point or two below the league average. If the injury bug hits the core, this team will be hard pressed to hit 80 points (and we have been whistling past the graveyard for several season on this). If the injury bug hits but focuses on the supporting cast, Beauvillier, K. Hayes, Acciari, Jarry, and Grelczyk (and Aho in WBS), then this team bolster by youth could challenge for a playoff berth and maybe even a divisional final round.
I do think that this season just might see the Atlantic Division sending 5 team’s to the playoffs and the Metro only 3, so I do see the Pens having to fight a little harder this season.