Penguins at a Crossroads: Time to Reset the Chessboard?

After two straight debacles, the Penguins have blown any progress they made after losing four out five. Those last two against Vegas and Arizona being the worst, the Penguins embarrassed themselves in both.

The Pens are now back in the Metro basement, with the Capitals ahead by a win, Islanders and Devils ahead by three points, and the Hurricanes ahead by seven.

Given the current performance of the Penguins, I have notable skepticism about their ability to secure one of the wildcard spots. The task becomes even more challenging with teams like Detroit and Tampa Bay surging ahead, holding a considerable 5-point advantage over the struggling Penguins.

It might not sound impossible for them to climb back, but none of the teams also contending for those wildcard spots are going away. It will be hard enough for the Penguins to overcome the Devils, Islanders, Capitals just for them to even sniff the last wildcard spot, which will be held by either Toronto, Detroit or Tampa Bay.

Do any of those teams seem like they’re going to fall off a cliff? I think not.

While the Penguins currently hold a P% of .545, their on-ice performance reflects that of a .500 team, especially in a conference where a .545 is essentially the benchmark for mediocrity, or essentially translates to a .500. Sidney Crosby stands out as the primary force maintaining the team’s relevance. Scratch that, Sidney Crosby is the only force keeping this team relevant.

Karlsson is doing fine, but he’s not doing enough, especially for that salary, and Malkin…well, he quite literally lost us the last two games. He doesn’t get all the blame, though because these Penguins have either come out flat as if they take the opponent as a joke, or they play flat at the end and throw the game. And that Brisson goal is one Jarry absolutely has to stop…

Should Sullivan be fired? I’ve often expressed my belief that he ranks among the best coaches in the NHL. However, contemplating his removal raises questions about the potential benefits or if any, especially considering the lack of readily available, superior replacements. The challenge lies in Sullivan’s dynamic with the team’s core; despite him adjusting and trying to implement a more defensive game, there appears to be a disconnect as the players seemingly deviate from the game plan, reverting back to the “good old days” trying to pretend they’re still that team from 2017.

Except, it’s not the good old days, this isn’t that team, but these players won’t let it go. And it’s costing them games. The only thing that hasn’t changed from that team, is Crosby.

Let me state this though, Sullivan will be out if they miss the playoffs, even if FSG likes him. I’d place money on that.

So, what do the Penguins do now? Given Dubas’s timeline until the All-Star break where he said –

We’ll continue to go through the season here and I’ll continue to evaluate where we’re at, and either after the All-Star break or after the season we’ll do what’s best for everybody — best for the Penguins, best for Jake, and we’ll determine that together.

The pressing question for the Penguins is their course of action. In my view, I think the answer is not to sell even more of your future to try and win with this roster, nor on the other hand, to blow up the team into a full scale rebuild, I believe that a retool is the best course of action at this point.

A retool akin to what the Bruins and Kings have successfully executed. I dislike endorsing full-scale rebuilds, as they entail significant uncertainties where you’re just simply playing the lottery. The possibility of drafting 1st overall repeatedly doesn’t guarantee success, or that tanking your team will even guarantee a 1st overall pick. Potentially leaving a team in a prolonged state of league basement dwelling pain, for a very very long time.

That’s not good for the fans or the franchise. I don’t think Kyle Dubas wants to play buyer at the deadline, I think that would be a huge mistake given the current roster, you would be sacrificing so much for only a small chance at even just making the playoffs let alone making a deep run. Just not worth it.

If you have Crosby and Letang playing like they’re playing, then you still have a chance if you retool, I would think Dubas is looking at it along these lines as well.

Jake Guentzel will be gone in this case. It would be absolute negligence on Kyle Dubas part to not get a return on Guentzel considering he is a free agent next year, and if you are not competing this year then you have to get something for him as opposed to letting him walk.

You need to make large changes to the overall composition of the team, and re-signing Guentzel would be more of the same. Considering his current performance he could make up to $10,000,000 or $11,000,000 per year, leaving the Penguins little breathing room in terms of reconstructing the roster.

If you trade him, you will at least recoup your first rounder, and if the Penguins are bad enough, they may recoup the one they gave for Karlsson, as it’s top ten protected. No guarantees on that one. Speaking of Karlsson, if you’re hoping they ship him out, don’t get excited. Not too many teams are interested in taking on Karlsson’s $10,000,000 in cap. Especially now that his numbers have dropped so far from last year. Everyone knew that he wouldn’t repeat what he did last year, but I think some teams might of been looking for PPG numbers.

What I would consider, and what Dubas might be inclined to do, is pursue a deal with Vancouver. The Canucks have expressed interest in Guentzel, and their current momentum suggests they’re all in. Moreover, Vancouver might appear to be an attractive destination for Guentzel given their impressive performance, why wouldn’t he want to go there? They’re one of the hottest teams in the league, if not the hottest.

A potential trade package with Vancouver could be structured around a 1st Round Pick, Andrei Kuzmenko, and the inclusion of either Nils Höglander or a prospect such as Vasily Podkolzin or Aatu Räty. This arrangement not only provides the Penguins with valuable assets for the future but also ensures the presence of a proven 40 goal-scorer like Kuzmenko to continue supporting Crosby’s playoff ambitions.

The Penguins also of course get a prospect for their depleted pool, one who can also play now if they chose Nils Höglander in the deal, adding even more for Crosby to work with. Perhaps softening the blow even more in terms of “giving up the season”. As he would make for a good depth player this year, but still has big growth in the future.

Now Elliotte Friedman, stated on the 32 Thoughts Podcast that he thinks Vancouver isn’t going to give up a prospect like Jonathan Lekkerimäki, but in a prospect starved organization, whichever guy it would be whether Höglander, Podkolzin, Räty, any of them are very much welcome even if they are not as touted as Lekkerimäki.

Including Kuzmenko in the deal seems almost inevitable, especially given the Canucks’ desire to move him and the necessity to align with the cap constraints. While the departure of Guentzel may initially raise concerns about Crosby being left without ample support for the remainder of the season, the inclusion of Kuzmenko serves as a way to help mitigate this issue. Though playoff hopes are doubtful now and would be more doubtful without Guentzel, even if Kuzmenko was coming in.

The notion that Kuzmenko could contribute to maintaining playoff hopes hinges on the timing of the trade. If the deal were to occur fairly promptly, such as right before and or shortly after the All-Star break. Kuzmenko’s impact on the team’s playoff aspirations would be more immediate. However, if the trade were to transpire closer to the deadline, there are two likely scenarios.

In one scenario, Kuzmenko might be traded in the following off-season if his chemistry with Crosby doesn’t develop as anticipated. Alternatively, if they establish a productive on-ice connection, Kuzmenko could become a valuable asset for the team’s playoff push in the subsequent season.

Secondly, and this one would be the bigger one, in terms of change and in how the team might respond, I would be very seriously considering moving Evgeni Malkin. He seems to be feeling the effects of age, he also seems to be one of the more stubborn players in terms of refusing to adjust his game to his age. Crosby and Letang have been preparing to play until the age of forty for their entire lives, Malkin on the other hand has not, and it’s becoming more and more noticeable, if not down right frustrating to watch.

I don’t believe you can build a successful retool around Malkin, he seems like he can’t handle the responsibility anymore, and something just needs to change with the team. Especially with the looming reality of him turning 38 next year, I think that his play will get worse.

There’s a noticeable lack of willingness from him to adapt or evolve his game, I would go as for to say he has no plans to adapt a single solitary thing about his game. Defensive improvements are non existent, they’re in fact far worse and his focus on flashy goals rather than getting to the dirty areas has led to a decline in effectiveness for his age. Moreover, he’s resistant to change his position on the power play, where his performance is waning and more shots go wide then on the net.

While not in a state of complete decline, he’s not the driving force behind the team’s successes. The notion of trading him could serve as a reality check for the team, and the Penguins should consider securing a return while he remains relevant.

Exploring a trade that allows Malkin to contribute his experience and remaining abilities to a team where he won’t be shouldering the same level of heavy reliance. This benefits Malkin in a potentially different role but also opens up avenues for the Penguins to undergo a more comprehensive retooling process with different focal points.

A team like the Panthers comes to mind, we know he likes the warm states, and I think as good as the Panthers are playing he’d be open to do that. They don’t have a first rounder to give to the Penguins, but at this point I don’t think a team would pay that for Malkin anyway. They don’t have a second for this year either, so they would have to take a 3rd round pick, possibly the Penguins could also nab the second round pick for 2025.

The Penguins could get a player like Anton Lundell in return, a former 2020 1st round pick who plays center, who still has a lot of potential left as he’s only 22 years old. He’s currently centering the Panthers first line while Barkov is out.

In Lundell’s first year he had 44 points in 65 GP, which was a 55 point pace. Pretty good for his first year, but he actually declined a bit the following year by getting 43 points in 73 GP, and currently is on a 32 point pace if he plays 82 games this year.

He’s been getting lost in the shuffle with the Panthers, and the idea of adding a player of Malkins level for a playoff push might be very inciting over holding a younger inexperienced player like Lundell.

Lundell is in the last year of his entry level deal, and could be signed to a deal in the range of $3,000,000 for a few years based on his small decline. If he were to breakout next year or any of the following, that would be a massive deal for the Penguins. It gives them a player with a high ceiling, for a cheap price and cap flexibility. And that’s how you build Stanley Cup teams.

If they were somehow magically able to move Karlsson as well, oh man look out. The Penguins could very quickly retool into a deadly contender of a team. I just don’t believe that Karlsson is leaving, it seems that Dubas is very high on Karlsson and will not move him even if possible. Unless the return is something that can’t be refused.

Penguins need to accept a retool, this roster and coaching don’t seem to be headed for playoff success. I don’t see this team as a contender, and I don’t expect some massive win streak before the All-Star break.

But it could be the case that I’m wrong and this team is still trying to find chemistry with all the new pieces, but I think the very core of this teams mindset and composition is the problem, and that very core needs to be shaken up to truly change.