If you’re a faithful reader of PenguinPoop, you’ve no doubt noticed the recent lack of content. On the heels of the Penguins’ latest momentum-quashing downturn, I confess I’d run out of ideas. Or more to the point, suggestions on how the team might improve.
I considered writing about Mike Sullivan…that perhaps a coaching change is in order. While I do feel we may need a new voice behind the bench after eight years with Sully, I don’t know if a knee-jerk change would benefit the team.
That’s not to say I think Sully’s perfect. He’s slow to react at times and when he finally does he seems to miss the mark a lot. But hockey isn’t an exact science. No coach gets it right all the time. Overall, I think Mike’s done better work and tried more things this season. And I do think he’s a good coach, particularly the way he works with and handles his players.
If you’re going to replace him, you’d better find another heavyweight coach.
As for the team itself?
Although it may not seem like it at times (particularly in the first period) our struggles aren’t due to a lack of try or effort. For the most part this bunch hangs tough and keeps competing even when the chips are down. It’s one of the things I like about this group. They’ve got some gristle.
Our “process” is good. We’re seventh in the league in Corsi and seventh in expected goals for percentage in 5v5 play. However, in terms of racking up the W’s, we’re just not getting ‘er done.
The main culprit? As incredible as it seems, an inability to finish. Our shooting percentage is an abysmal 8.7 percent.
The power play, a perceived strength heading into the season, has been an abject disaster, converting at under 14 percent. I truly don’t know if it’s fixable. Secondary scoring has been an issue, too. Unfortunately, that includes second-line scoring.
Indeed, the lack of output from Evgeni Malkin’s line is a huge concern. Based on scoring logs on Hockey Reference, Malkin’s unit in its various forms has tallied just four even-strength goals in the past 16 games, which has dovetailed with our overall cliff-dive in production.
Sadly, Geno’s line has become the place where wingers go to die. Rickard Rakell, a 28-goal scorer last season, hasn’t notched a single goal this season skating next to Geno. Bryan Rust has scored two, but one was in overtime and the other was during a 6-on-5 situation with our goalie pulled. Following an early season burst, Reilly Smith has gone stone cold.
These guys aren’t stiffs. They’re established 20-30 goal scorers.
You start to look for common denominators and you come up with No. 71.
There’s no question that Geno, at age 37, isn’t what he used to be. All things considered, his individual production…16 goals and 41 points…has held up remarkably well. But I wonder if he’s still able to drive a line and distribute the puck the way he used to.
The numbers would appear to say he can’t.
So what’s a coach to do?
As the old saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures.
During our 3-2 shootout loss to the Panthers on January 26, Sullivan tried Geno at right wing on a line with Lars Eller and Rakell for one 45-second shift. In that brief time they generated three shot attempts and an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 89.65.
An admittedly tiny sample size. However, the following night against Montreal, Sully went back to this combo for a more robust 5:40 of 5v5 ice time. Again, the results were off the charts. The trio racked up a 9-2 edge in shot attempts and an astounding xGF% of 98.67.
During the past two games, Sullivan tried Eller and Geno again, this time with Smith. That combination fizzled (in less than two minutes of combined ice time).
I’d be tempted to give the Rakell-Eller-Malkin trio another, more extended look.
To digress, even the magnificent Mario Lemieux shifted to wing later his career. And while Eller isn’t the second-coming of Ron Francis or a true No. 2 center, he’s a strong two-way player who could do the heavy lifting and allow Geno to do what he does best…concentrate on offense.
Option number two would be to plug Malkin between Rust and Jake Guentzel (gasp), a combo that thrived for a spell back in 2019-20 in the wake of an injury to Sidney Crosby. Sid would get Smith and Rakell in hopes that he could awaken the slumping wingers.
Risky business for sure. But the upside is, you might generate two scoring lines instead of one.
If you really want to get ballistic? Bring back the Two-Headed Monster of yore and move Geno to Sid’s wing.
Don’t know if any of these moves would work. But the Pens need to try something to generate an offensive spark, to say nothing of salvaging the season.
The same old, same old ain’t cuttin’ it.
Harkins on IR
In other team news, forward Jansen Harkins has been placed on IR with a concussion, joining erstwhile linemate Noel Acciari. That leaves us with 11 healthy forwards heading into tonight’s fray with the Panthers.
Not to beat a dead horse, but I’m not sure why we don’t recall Sam Poulin from the Baby Pens. Cap issues, perhaps?
Our playoff outlook remains bleak. The Flyers continue to put distance (11 points) between us and third place in the Metro. The Red Wings have a seven-point bulge in the race for the second wild-card spot.
Bottom line…we need to win. Something we’ve had plenty of trouble doing of late (2-4-1 in our last seven).
