Penguins Update: Drafting Franchise Players a Luck of the Draw

As the Penguins’ fortunes spiral down, down, down to where Gollum and the San Jose Sharks reside, I’ve put forth the notion that if we’re going to be bad, we might as well be really bad. The better to snare a lottery pick or, dare we dream, a No. 1 overall pick.

Based on early reports, a pair of standouts will be available in the upcoming Entry Draft, Brampton power forward Porter Matrone and Boston College playmaker James Hagens. The real prize, Medicine Hat phenom Gavin McKenna, becomes draft eligible in 2026. This kid is Lemieux-esque in my book.

Yet when Other Rick and I discussed the matter at Wright’s Gym the other day, he was quick to note that drafting No. 1 overall doesn’t guarantee you’ll get a franchise player.

“Look at Connor Bedard,” he said. “He’s supposed to be the Next One, but he’s only scored three goals this season.”

Talking about bursting my bubble. But my esteemed colleague is right.

Bedard is not having the type of season you’d expect from a franchise player. Not even close. While it’s true the Blackhawks haven’t exactly surrounded him with Grade A talent, you’d expect a true franchise player to rise above that.

Mario Lemieux scored 43 goals and 100 points for a rag-tag, black-and-gold squad back in ’84-85, in the process turning journeyman Warren Young into a 40-goal scorer. Sidney Crosby also cracked the 100-point barrier (102 to be exact) on a team that managed to register just 58 points.

With that in mind, I decided to look at the past ten No. 1 overall picks to see how they’re performing. Stats include games played through November 20.

Draft Yr.	Player	Team	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS	PIM	+/-
2024	Macklin Celebrini	SJS	C	9	4	1	5	2	-4
2023	Connor Bedard	CHI	C	19	3	12	15	8	-6
2022	Juraj Slafkovsky	MTL	LW	16	1	10	11	6	0
2021	Owen Power	BUF	D	19	3	10	13	4	-3
2020	Alexis Lafreniere	NYR	LW	17	7	7	14	2	-5
2019	Jack Hughes	NJD	C	21	8	14	22	2	3
2018	Rasmus Dahlin	BUF	D	19	5	12	17	16	2
2017	Nico Hischier	NJD	C	21	10	10	20	0	10
2016	Auston Matthews	TOR	C	13	5	6	11	4	2
2015	Connor McDavid	EDM	C	17	9	15	24	6	4

 

The results are eye-opening to say the least. Aside from Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, drafted back-to-back in 2015 and 2016, there aren’t any true franchise players in the bunch.

I rate most of these guys in the very-good-to-excellent range. Frankly, the jury is still out on Juraj Slafkovsky, a mountainous 238-pound power forward who has yet to produce consistently at the big-league level, and Macklin Celebrini, who’s just begun his NHL career to favorable reviews.

It’s worth noting that procuring multiple No. 1 picks is no guarantee of success. Buffalo had two top picks, Rasmus Dahlin (’18) and Owen Power (’21). Yet the Sabres haven’t made the playoffs for 13 seasons running and are struggling to turn the corner.

By virtue of poor performance New Jersey was also in a position to draft a pair of first overall picks, Nico Hischier (’17) and Jack Hughes (’19), excellent players both. While the Devils have fared better than the Sabres, they’ve missed the playoffs five of the past six seasons.

Then you have players who nearly went No. 1. Shane Wright was expected to be the top pick in ’22, but in an unforeseen twist fell to fourth overall. This season, his second as a pro, he’s scored a goal and an assist in 18 games for the Kraken and was recently a healthy scratch.

Perhaps the greatest cautionary tale was authored by old friend Ron Hextall, who picked Nolan Patrick (pictured) second overall for the Flyers back in ‘17.

Rated as the top North American skater by NHL Central Scouting, the 6’2” 200-pound center was hardly a reach. He had big-league pedigree, too. His dad, Steven, and uncle, James, were both NHL players. The latter a star defenseman.

Dan Marr of Elite Prospects wrote, “He (Patrick) has more than proven over the last three years that he is the real deal and he will be an impact NHL player.”

Through no fault of his own, the youngster was beset by injuries and health issues, including a debilitating migraine disorder, which forced him to retire.

When it comes to drafting young talent, even an apparent sure thing, you just never know.