As the Penguins’ fortunes spiral down, down, down to where Gollum and the San Jose Sharks reside, I’ve put forth the notion that if we’re going to be bad, we might as well be really bad. The better to snare a lottery pick or, dare we dream, a No. 1 overall pick.
Based on early reports, a pair of standouts will be available in the upcoming Entry Draft, Brampton power forward Porter Matrone and Boston College playmaker James Hagens. The real prize, Medicine Hat phenom Gavin McKenna, becomes draft eligible in 2026. This kid is Lemieux-esque in my book.
Yet when Other Rick and I discussed the matter at Wright’s Gym the other day, he was quick to note that drafting No. 1 overall doesn’t guarantee you’ll get a franchise player.
“Look at Connor Bedard,” he said. “He’s supposed to be the Next One, but he’s only scored three goals this season.”
Talking about bursting my bubble. But my esteemed colleague is right.
Bedard is not having the type of season you’d expect from a franchise player. Not even close. While it’s true the Blackhawks haven’t exactly surrounded him with Grade A talent, you’d expect a true franchise player to rise above that.
Mario Lemieux scored 43 goals and 100 points for a rag-tag, black-and-gold squad back in ’84-85, in the process turning journeyman Warren Young into a 40-goal scorer. Sidney Crosby also cracked the 100-point barrier (102 to be exact) on a team that managed to register just 58 points.
With that in mind, I decided to look at the past ten No. 1 overall picks to see how they’re performing. Stats include games played through November 20.
| Draft Yr. | Player | Team | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM | +/- |
| 2024 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | C | 9 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -4 |
| 2023 | Connor Bedard | CHI | C | 19 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 8 | -6 |
| 2022 | Juraj Slafkovsky | MTL | LW | 16 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 2021 | Owen Power | BUF | D | 19 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 4 | -3 |
| 2020 | Alexis Lafreniere | NYR | LW | 17 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 2 | -5 |
| 2019 | Jack Hughes | NJD | C | 21 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 2 | 3 |
| 2018 | Rasmus Dahlin | BUF | D | 19 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 2 |
| 2017 | Nico Hischier | NJD | C | 21 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 10 |
| 2016 | Auston Matthews | TOR | C | 13 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 2 |
| 2015 | Connor McDavid | EDM | C | 17 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 6 | 4 |
The results are eye-opening to say the least. Aside from Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, drafted back-to-back in 2015 and 2016, there aren’t any true franchise players in the bunch.
I rate most of these guys in the very-good-to-excellent range. Frankly, the jury is still out on Juraj Slafkovsky, a mountainous 238-pound power forward who has yet to produce consistently at the big-league level, and Macklin Celebrini, who’s just begun his NHL career to favorable reviews.
It’s worth noting that procuring multiple No. 1 picks is no guarantee of success. Buffalo had two top picks, Rasmus Dahlin (’18) and Owen Power (’21). Yet the Sabres haven’t made the playoffs for 13 seasons running and are struggling to turn the corner.
By virtue of poor performance New Jersey was also in a position to draft a pair of first overall picks, Nico Hischier (’17) and Jack Hughes (’19), excellent players both. While the Devils have fared better than the Sabres, they’ve missed the playoffs five of the past six seasons.
Then you have players who nearly went No. 1. Shane Wright was expected to be the top pick in ’22, but in an unforeseen twist fell to fourth overall. This season, his second as a pro, he’s scored a goal and an assist in 18 games for the Kraken and was recently a healthy scratch.
Perhaps the greatest cautionary tale was authored by old friend Ron Hextall, who picked Nolan Patrick (pictured) second overall for the Flyers back in ‘17.
Rated as the top North American skater by NHL Central Scouting, the 6’2” 200-pound center was hardly a reach. He had big-league pedigree, too. His dad, Steven, and uncle, James, were both NHL players. The latter a star defenseman.
Dan Marr of Elite Prospects wrote, “He (Patrick) has more than proven over the last three years that he is the real deal and he will be an impact NHL player.”
Through no fault of his own, the youngster was beset by injuries and health issues, including a debilitating migraine disorder, which forced him to retire.
When it comes to drafting young talent, even an apparent sure thing, you just never know.
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The uncertainty goes beyond drafting a "franchise" player." Look at the Leafs, who had unbelievable luck getting Mathews, Nylander and Marner in consecutive drafts. Yet they've gotten out of the first round only once. despite an extraordinary degree of good drafting luck.
Hello Outsider, and welcome to PenguinPoop.
Excellent point about the Leafs. You made me think of the Oilers as well. Starting in 2010, four No. 1 overall picks in six seasons, including Taylor Hall ('10), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ('11), Nail Yakupov ('12) and Connor McDavid ('15).
The two that weren't first overalls during that span? Darnell Nurse 7th overall in '13 and Leon Draisaitl 3rd overall in '14. Yet they experienced only one winning/playoff season ('16-17) during that stretch until '19-20 when they finally began to turn the corner.
For some reason, it seems to have gotten harder to build through the draft during the salary-cap era. A number of teams, the Sabres and Senators immediately come to mind, have amassed a good, young nucleus but can't seem to turn the corner.
Rick
PS--Are you a Leafs fan? If so, I'd be interested to get your take on Kyle Dubas.
Hey Rick,
The sad part of this team is that it is far closer to the 83-84 team than it is to the 03-04 team. In 03-04 the team had lined up several decent players in Orpik, Armstrong, Whitney, and Fleury before the strike and the Penguins picking up Malkin and Crosby back-to-back. Even if McKenna turn out to be the next generational talent he is going to come to a team that has almost to no good young talent to grow up with. Orpik, Armstrong, Whitney, and Fleury were all first round draft picks and MAF and Sid were overall No. 1 s while Geno was an overall no. 2 as was Staal who came the next season. McKenna will be coming in with maybe McGroarty (if the team doesn't screw him over and he isn't even home grown), Pickering (who was really supposed to be a low 2nd, high 3rd), and Poulin (who they already screwed up). Other than that, all McKenna may get to work with is a Matrone or Hagens, if Dubas tanks this team and they win the lottery. Barring Divine intervention. this is going to be the legacy of Sullivan, JR, Hextall, Dubas, and FSG, many, many years of frustration due to their serious arrogance and short-sightedness.
Hey all.
Mike Sullivan never ceases to amaze me. Apparently he's unhappy with the team's compete level, so he had them practicing battle drills. Yet he weeds out anyone who remotely plays a physical game.
The dichotomy is mind-numbing.
His apparent answer to our defensive woes? Spend less time in our zone. I guess teaching guys how to actually defend (and not the stick-on-puck horsebleep he prefers) is just too much to ask.
No wonder we're in such bad shape.
Rick
Hey Rick,
I am not surprised by more evidence that Sullivan has no idea of how to troubleshoot the team's ills. His hubris has no equal in human history. He refuses to look critically at HIS system.
Amen, my friend.
I read on PHN that Sullivan refers to his system as a "philosophy." Well, we need a coach, not a philosopher... :(
Rick
Truer words were never written