Our Penguins have reached the midpoint of the 2023-24 NHL season. (Or to borrow a lyric from an old Bon Jovi tune, we’re “halfway there.”) So I thought I’d do a little projecting.
There’s nothing creative or scientific about my process. I simply multiplied our players’ current production by two. No muss, no fuss. However, output for fringe players and guys who’ve spent time on IR may be a bit skewed. But what the heck.
As for the team, we’ve hit the halfway mark with a record of 20-15-6 and 46 points, which projects to 40-30-12 and 92 points for a full season. Almost identical to last season’s mark of 40-31-11, which was good for 91 points.
Without further ramble, here are the projected stats.
| SCORING | |||||
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- |
| Guentzel | 82 | 38 | 54 | 92 | 20 |
| Crosby | 82 | 48 | 40 | 88 | 34 |
| Malkin | 82 | 30 | 40 | 70 | 0 |
| Karlsson | 82 | 14 | 46 | 60 | 18 |
| Letang | 82 | 6 | 50 | 56 | 26 |
| Rust | 56 | 22 | 26 | 48 | 26 |
| Smith | 80 | 16 | 24 | 40 | -2 |
| Pettersson | 82 | 2 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
| O’Connor | 82 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 14 |
| Rakell | 58 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 0 |
| Eller | 82 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 4 |
| Carter | 70 | 10 | 4 | 14 | -4 |
| Zohorna | 60 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Graves | 82 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 22 |
| Puustinen | 32 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 4 |
| Acciari | 66 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
| Nieto | 44 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Harkins | 52 | 0 | 8 | 8 | -4 |
| Hinostroza | 28 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 |
| Ruhwedel | 54 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
| Joseph | 28 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -10 |
| Jarry | 56 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Ludvig | 38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -14 |
| Gruden | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| Hellberg | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnstone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| Koppanen | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nedeljkovic | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nylander | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shea | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| White | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GOALTENDING | |||||
| Player | GP | GAA | SV% | SH | W-L-OT |
| Hellberg | 6 | 2.50 | .922 | 0 | 2-0-0 |
| Jarry | 56 | 2.58 | .913 | 8 | 22-24-8 |
| Nedeljkovic | 30 | 2.66 | .916 | 2 | 16-6-4 |
Obviously Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby, the black-and-gold version of peas and carrots, are enjoying great seasons to date. However, Evgeni Malkin has posted strong numbers as well, despite a dearth of scoring among his wingers.
On pace for 14 goals and 60 points, Erik Karlsson certainly isn’t having a bad season. Just not quite what was expected in the wake of his monster 25-goal, 101-point campaign in ’22-23.
With 56 projected points, Kris Letang is quietly having a great season, as is his tandem-mate Marcus Pettersson (on pace for a plus-40).
Although their numbers aren’t dazzling, I like the work Lars Eller, Drew O’Connor and Noel Acciari have done. I’m also pleasantly surprised with the play of Jeff Carter and Jansen Harkins, especially of late.
One of the most interesting stats? With all their other numbers being relatively equal, the skew between the projected records of Tristan Jarry (22-24-8) and Alex Nedeljkovic (16-6-4).
Is it time for Sully to treat our goalies as a 1a 1b tandem and build in some friendly competition for ice time similar to the Bruins? And I’ve gotta wonder how much that power play drought is going to haunt the team through the stretch. Hopefully they can squeeze into one of those wildcard spots before it’s too late.
Hello Nick and welcome to PenguinPoop!
I kind of like the way Sullivan’s been using the goalies of late. Whether it’s Nedeljkovic or Jarry, he seems quite willing to ride the hot hand, which I think makes sense.
I really like the way Ned has pushed Jarry…and vice versa. Even though Casey DeSmith really didn’t do a bad job for us (and has been just fine with the Canucks) I never got the sense that he was enough of a threat for lack of a better word to push Jarry the way Ned is doing.
Based on an article on the Trib, it sounds like Jarry and Ned get on well and have a healthy respect for each other, which is great.
Regarding the power play, I worry about that, too. (And our overtime play, which is abysmal.) If the power play was clicking at an even moderately successful rate, I’d like to think we’d be up where Philly is in the standings and not swimming with the fishes. There’s just too much talent not to figure it out, but maybe that’s the problem. Too many head chefs and not enough sous chefs.
To that point, I liked it with Puustinen in the mix. But like a moth drawn into the flame, the coaching staff invariably returns to the Hall-of-Famer blend.
One thing I might be tempted to try? Karlsson and Letang on the same unit. They actually seem to work well together. But that would mean yanking a big name (Geno?) off the top unit.
Rick