Shortly after I awakened one morning last week I received a text from PP colleague Caleb Di’Natale. Caleb was keen to inform me that Brayden Yager, our first-round pick last summer, is on pace for a 100-point season with his junior team, Moose Jaw.
Good news, indeed.
It got me to thinking. Could help, more specifically the internal kind, be at long-last on the way?
To say the Penguins’ farm system has produced a paucity of prospects over the past few years is putting the situation mildly. Since Jake Guentzel burst onto the scene as an overachieving third-rounder back in 2016-17, only a handful of home-grown draftees and free-agent signees have played anything approaching a significant role for the black and gold.
Dominik Simon was an effective complimentary player for a time skating with Sidney Crosby. Ditto Kasperi Kapanen with Evgeni Malkin. Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese anchored our energy/checking line for a couple seasons. Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith formed a reasonably effective goalie tandem.
More recently, Drew O’Connor, Radim Zohorna and Valtteri Puustinen have filled middle-six slots. O’Connor has shown flashes of late, while Puustinen could be a diamond in the rough along the lines of Conor Sheary.
It’s safe to say, none have matched Guentzel’s considerable impact.
Is that about to change?
I’ll be the first to admit I’m the least knowledgeable of our PP writers when it comes to prospects. That would be Other Rick and Caleb’s area of expertise. So you can take what I’m about to write with a grain of salt. Still, I like to think I know a little something.
Concerning Yager, I may have a bit of a negative bias toward the kid, who turns 19 tomorrow. Personally, I would’ve preferred the Pens take a physically mature talent such as Matthew Wood (6’3” 190), Samuel Honzek (6’4” 186) and Quentin Musty (6’2” 200) as opposed to the wispy Yager, who’s listed at 5’11” 166 pounds.
Musty, in particular, is tearing it up for the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL to the tune of 16 goals and 40 points in 22 games. Stats similar to the 17 goals and 41 points Yager’s posted in 28 games in the WHL.
Watching video of Yager, a few things jump out. First and foremost, his shot and release. Yager possesses an absolutely wicked, NHL-ready wrist shot. He picks his spots with ease and with unerring accuracy. There’s no questioning his pedigree when it comes to finishing.
Not to be a downer, but you know who else possessed a bomb of a shot? Nathan Légaré. Now skating for Laval in the Canadiens’ farm system, he’s still struggling to produce at the pro level because of deficiencies in his overall game.
That’s what worries me about Yager. Although a great deal was made about him patterning his game after his idol, Crosby, that doesn’t line up with what I see on video. In the admittedly limited clips I’ve watched, Yager didn’t seem all that engaged. In fact, he was fairly invisible until it came time to shoot the puck.
Perhaps there’s nothing wrong with a player lurking in the weeds until it’s go time. The better to catch foes unaware. And maybe I was expecting more speed and flash. But to my eye, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of drive and compete in Yager’s game, other than when it’s time to shoot the biscuit. Which could be a fatal flaw for a kid who isn’t going to bowl anyone over with his size.
As the old saying goes, “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”
Guentzel’s a prime example of a smaller player who’s willing to get his nose dirty. At first blush, Puustinen appears to be, too.
Again, this is a cursory, 10,000-foot fly over observation. But Yager seems content on the fringes.
In terms of overall potential, I’m more enthused about our 2022 first-rounder, Swift Current defenseman Owen Pickering. He skates extremely well for a big kid (6’4” 185) and handles the puck with skill and aplomb. In contrast to Yager, he’s very noticeable.
Are there defensive deficiencies in his game? To be sure. And by his own admission, Pickering needs to add bulk and strength. However, we need look no further than our own Marcus Pettersson to find a defenseman who thrives despite a lanky frame. Indeed, the Dragon may provide a ready-made mentor for Pickering when the day comes.
To sum up, could either Yager or Pickering…or both…step in to provide help this season?
I’d have to say no.
If help does come from within, I think it will be in the form of power forward Sam “Bam” Poulin, our first-round pick in 2019.
Still, the days when the Pens’ prospect cupboard was bare seem to be mercifully coming to an end.
############
Follow-up note: Yager has two goals and two assists in four games for Team Canada in the World Junior Championships. He’s been skating on a line with potential No. 1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini.
Hey Rick,
I still keep up with all of the prospects, I just haven’t written anything in a while.
Yager isn’t a bad player but like you I would rather have had Musty. Yager could possibly make the NHL and with the distinct lack of home grown prospects getting real chances to play at the NHL level, my guess is the team will do their level best to try and get him to the next level, if for no other reason than to try and save face for so many bungled past projects.
As for Pick-you-nose, he is pathetic. He was a waste of a 1st round pick. his 19 Pnts in 28 GP in the very offensively minded WHL is extremely underwhelming. He is tied for 144th in terms of raw scoring, and barely better in terms of Pnts per game (ted for 135th). For all of his hype he is a bust. As I wrote when he was drafted, all of the positive scouting reports originated from a Coach who Coached him in a 3 game tournament, and rather than do the leg work, all the other reports reflected or out-right plagiarized that 1-coach.
As for defensive deficiencies, Pickering’s +/- checks in tied at 416th out of 565 players in the WHL. That isn’t just a little bad.
Maveric Lamoureux, the player I wanted the Penguins to draft, the 6′-7″ 214 lb RHD in Drummondville has 27 Pnts in 25 GP, 8 more pnts in 1 less GP and has a +/- 22 pnts higher. than the guy I wrote skates around his own zone like a 6 year old chasing the puck rather than playing positional hockey and jumps up into the play with regularity in the offensive zone but fails to retreat to his point position until well after the play has dissolved and is going back the other way.
For the record, I certainly would’ve liked Lamoureux, too. Especially since he’s got a bit of Zdeno Chara-ish nasty to his game.
Still, that doesn’t make Pickering a stiff. IMHO, the skill, skating and instincts are there to be a decent, puck-moving defenseman.
Rick
I am sorry Rick, but when a player is ranking in the 130s and 140s in scoring in his league and 416th out of 565 in +/- and you are 25 days shy of your 20th birth day and still in the Jrs, that is pretty close to being a bust in my books. If this kid ever develops it won’t be until he is 27 or 28.
Sorry Rick, but you started me thinking, so I went back and looked at Pickering again,
Last season he rank 107th in raw scoring, 116th in Pnts per Game and 401st out of 603 WHL players. This year he is in 130s and 140s in scoring and 416 in +/- out of 565 players. Even though a large group of players aged out and a new group of younger players took their place, Pickering fell back in both offense and defense. Other players, possibly younger players are passing up the Penguins former first round draft pick.
Maveric Lamoureux conversely was tied for 218 last season in raw points, 151st in Pnts per Game, and tied for 334 in +/- out of 506 QMJHL players last season. This season, he is 70th in raw Pnts, 27th in Pnts per Game, and tied for 29th in +/- out of 460 QMJHL players.
In other words, Rick, Pickering is stagnate or getting worse with age, being passed up by other players in development, while Lamoureux is improving by leaps and bounds. Our Penguins scouts and management passed on Lamoureux and took a player who is now looking like the 3rd round player I said he was instead of the player I wanted, who is now climbing into the rare air of what should have been our Penguins 1st round pick.
Perhaps, just perhaps, I may know a little about horse flesh.