Penguins Update: Is Mike Sullivan Feeling the Heat?

As the Penguins lurch toward their second straight non-playoff season, it’s fair to say long-time coach Mike Sullivan is beginning to feel the heat. Indeed, media outlets that have traditionally been supportive of Sully are beginning to take a hard look at his performance behind the bench. Both Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now and Hooks Orpik of Pensburgh have written excellent articles on the subject of late, well-worth the read.

My personal take?

I think the Pens should’ve made a clean sweep and replaced Sullivan when they fired GM Ron Hextall and POHO Brian Burke last summer. His system and message just seem stale. Every coach has a shelf life. My sense is Sullivan has exceeded his here.

That’s not to suggest he’s a bad coach. Just that it’s time to move on. Especially in light of the way the Pens have fallen short of expectations this season. The same mistakes and shortfalls (i.e.; terrible power play, defensive lapses) play out with metronomic consistency without any hint of a solution from Sully and his staff.

Players who previously had strong track records such as Erik Karlsson, Reilly Smith and Ryan Graves have struggled in the ‘Burgh. How much of that is on Sullivan and how much is on the players themselves is difficult to say. However, the list of players who washed out under our coach only to find their game elsewhere seems to be growing, with Alex Nylander the latest example.

Does coaching really make that much of a difference? And could a coaching change have helped our Pens this season?

The answer to the first question is a resounding yes. We only need to look at the Capitals to find an example. The Caps finished last season in a 7-17-4 death spiral (sound familiar?) under respected veteran coach Peter Laviolette, who ironically has been compared to Sullivan by former GM Jim Rutherford.

During the offseason, the Caps parted ways with Laviolette and hired bright young coach Spencer Carbery. A motley conglomeration of fading stars such as Alex Ovechkin, TJ Oshie and Max Pacioretty, middling support players and green kids, on paper the Caps look like a team that should be in the running for a lottery pick in the draft. Yet despite a whopping goal differential of minus-31, Carbery has them in the thick of the playoff chase.

That’s coaching. In my humble opinion, a job worthy of Jack Adams consideration.

As for the second question? Our own history suggests that an in-season coaching change can effect a huge turnaround. Dan Bylsma took over what was a dispirited bunch under hard-liner Michel Therrien in 2009 and led them to a Stanley Cup. Sullivan himself authored a similar resurrection back in ’16 after assuming the reins from Mike Johnston.

Seven teams have made in-season coaching changes in ’23-24. Most have worked out favorably, a few not-so-much.

On the plus side of the ledger, the Oilers have gone a smoking hot 39-12-3 under Kris Knoblauch after a horrid 3-9-1 start under Jay Woodcroft. Several other clubs, including the Kings, Wild and Blues have reaped improved results as well.

On the flip side? It’s pretty much been status quo or regression for the Islanders, Senators and Devils, the most recent team to make a switch.

Would an in-season change have helped our Pens?

It’s hard to say. Given the underlying flaws in our roster construction, my guess is not a whole lot. But you never know.

With only 14 games remaining and the bottom clearly dropping out on our playoff aspirations, it’s too late to make a switch now. But if I’m Kyle Dubas, FSG willing, I pull the plug on the Sully era this summer.

As for those who fear Sullivan will have success coaching another team? That could very well happen. Hired by the Rangers, Laviolette has the Blueshirts challenging for the Presidents’ Trophy. However, just because Sullivan might be a winner elsewhere doesn’t make him the best choice for our current group.

It’s time for a new voice and a new direction. It’s time for a change.