Should the Penguins Sign Nick Robertson to an Offer Sheet (and Why Haven’t They Already Done So)?

The St. Louis Blues took a bold step a few days ago when they signed erstwhile Edmonton RFAs Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to offer sheets.

The 23-year-old Broberg, the eighth overall pick in 2019, was on the verge of cracking the Oilers’ regular defensive rotation for the past couple of seasons before making a big impression during the team’s run to the Final this spring.

The rangy 6’3” 199-pound native of Orebo, Sweden, signed a two-year offer with an AAV of $4.58 million.

Holloway, a feisty 22-year-old forward and the 14^th overall pick in 2020, likewise signed a two-deal. His carries an AAV of $2.29 million.

The Oilers have till August 20 to match the offers. If they don’t, the Blues will pony up a 2025 second-rounder for Broberg and a third-rounder for Holloway. Certainly not too steep a price to pay for a pair of quality prospects.

If the Blues can do it, why not us?

I was thinking of one player in particular. Toronto left wing Nicholas Robertson.

For starters, Pens POHO/GM Kyle Dubas is most familiar with Robertson. Indeed, it was Dubas who drafted the Peterborough scoring sensation in the second round (53^rd overall) in 2019.

Since making his NHL debut with Toronto during the 2020 playoffs, the kid brother of Dallas scoring star Jason Robertson has had a tough time cracking the Leafs’ talented top-six. A string of physical setbacks, including a knee injury, a broken leg and a shoulder injury in 2022-23 that required season-ending surgery certainly haven’t helped.

When healthy the RFA winger’s flashed his pedigree, scoring at a point-per-game rate in the AHL. This past season, despite seeing limited duty (11:23 ATOI), the 5’9” 178-pounder enjoyed a breakout of sorts at the big-league level, tallying 14 goals and 27 points in 56 games for the Leafs while sniping at a 14.6 percent clip.

Why am I so intrigued by Robertson?

The kid possesses skill, speed and a hard shot, not to mention a high-rev motor. Qualities we could desperately use, especially in a youngster. We happen to have an opening for just such a player next to Sidney Crosby.

Too, Robertson is seeking an expanded role and wants out of Toronto. To that end, he turned down a qualifying offer earlier this summer of $813 K.

What would it take for the Pens to acquire Robertson’s services? According to Kelsey Surmacz of The Hockey News, if we can entice him to sign an offer sheet with an AAV pegged between $1.51 and $2.29 million, the compensation would be a third-round pick in 2025.

We just happen to have one of those available.

Seems like a no-brainer, doesn’t it?

Then why don’t we (or haven’t we) stepped forward with an offer? Especially given the connection to Dubas.

Yes, Robertson seems injury prone, which is obviously a concern. And signing him would put us over the cap limit, although not by much.

I don’t think either are the real issue.

I have a theory, one I put forth earlier this summer.

I don’t think Dubas really wants to improve the Pens, at least not in the short run. In fact, privately I think he’s banking on the team taking a tumble this season, one that would tee up a fire sale at the trade deadline. The better to position us for a lottery pick or two (or three) in the near future. Much like Kyle Davidson has done with the Blackhawks.

The potential prize? The next Next One, Medicine Hat phenom Gavin McKenna, who scored 34 goals and 97 points in 61 games for the Tigers as a 16-year-old. He’ll be draft eligible in 2026.

Signing a promising young player like Robertson at this stage might improve us just enough to gum up the works.