Sorry, but I have to add some more fuel to the fire over Rick B’s Great Goalie Debate. No preamble here, as is my wont. I will just jump straight into it.
This is the perfect time to trade Tristan Jarry. He actually has some value right now, and the team may be able to find someone willing to take on his $5.375 million for 5-year (4 more after this season) contract.
Historically, Jarry has become a zero down the stretch run, Yes, he has played a couple of decent games, getting a Shutout (SO) against a New York Islanders team that only managed 22 Shots on Goal (SOG), and then another victory (4 – 2) against a tired St. Louis Blues team that lost to the Colorado Avalanche the night before 2 – 1, a team that again managed less than 30 SOG (27).
Alex Nedeljkovic is out playing Jarry (turning away 37 of 38 SOG last game against a rested Islander team that should have been bent on revenge). Moreover, Nedeljkovic is only getting $1.5 million.
The near $2 million savings could give tons of Cap wiggle room and keep Jeff Carter on the bench once Bryan Rust gets back.
Also, if you take a squint down the Pittsburgh Penguins organization you will see that although our favorite flightless fowl don’t have much in the way of Forward or Defensive prospects, they do have some really good young Goalies buried down on the farm.
The Wilkes Barre – Scranton Penguins, the black-and-gold’s top farm team, is being backstopped by Joel Blomqvist. Blomqvist’s 9-4-2 record is far better than the underperforming veteran Magnus Hellburg’s 5-5-0 record. Blomqvist’s 0.915 Save Percentage (Sv%) is tenth in the AHL. Furthermore, with Hellberg’s record considerably lower than Blomqvist and the highest scoring baby Penguin, Rem Pitlick only capable of being tied for 41st in the league, the team for whom the young Finn is plying his trade is tied for 5th (of 8) in Atlantic Division of the AHL.
The Penguins also have a kid named Taylor Gauthier who is dominating the ECHL for our boys of winter affiliate in that AHL feeder league, the Wheeling Nailers. Gauthier’s 2.06 Goals Against Average (GAA) and 0.932 Sv% lead the ECHL. The free agent signing out of the WHL, from a couple of years back is also tied for the lead in SOs (2).
Lastly, if Russian President Vladimir Putin ever turns into something other than a tyrant, Kyle Dubas has a kid playing in the Russian junior hockey league, the MHL, by the name of Sergei Murashov. Murashov is 8th in the MHL in Sv% (0.932) and has a 17-3-1 record and 4 SOs.
That $5.375 million for 5-years deal that Jarry signed could easily become a millstone really quick.
The point is, if Mike Sullivan’s Seafaring Sphenisciformes’ Skaters have to expend that much energy protecting a Goalie, they may as well save money and protect a young Goalie. And just as important, Dubas might just be able to either shore up a weak spot in the roster or get back some prospects for the future.
Jarry is a luxury that some other NHL team needs, not our Penguins.
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in all fairness, before the goaltenders are criticized you must look at the poor defense and lack of forward backchecking in front of them. lazy and ill advised line changes are also a common factor for this team. The major issue with this team is it has become a country club as opposed to a disciplined, system driven group of players. When is the last time Malkin backchecked or for that matter played at full speed. His line mate Smith isn't much better. Why is Carter once again become a permanent fixture on the fourth line. Why is P. O. Joseph even in the NHL? And is Eric Karlsson supposed to educate players in defensive skills? Is Graves supposed to be our shutdown D man which clears the front of the net? Every game the opposition has a shooting gallery in front of the net. If not for goaltending, this team would have a minimum 5 more losses.
Hey Dave,
As everyone here knows, I am no fan of our Penguins Defense., however, our Team defense is roughly average in the league. We are 15th in CA/60 (5-on-5), 17th in SA/60 (5-on-5), and 17th HDCA/60 (5-on-5). Therefore, since our Defense is not in the bottom third of the league, then it is quite natural to blame the Goalies, particularly Jarry ($5.375 million for 5 years, 12th most expensive Goalie salary).
Nedeljkovic is not the second coming of Georges Vezina but this team would be in a significantly better position if he had been given more starts than Jarry.
Rick and Mike, I respect your opinions and often agree with them. In the case of Jarry, however, I cannot. I would not risk what little time is left in Crosby’s career on an overpaid with a seriously long track record of underachievement. I would rather roll the dice with 2 unknown quantities like Blomqvist and Gauthier. In fact, Blomqvist did out play Jarry by a country mile in preseason.
In the calendar year of Jan 1, 2023 – Dec 31, 2023 Jarry’s numbers are,
Sv%: 908, HDSv%: 0.782, HDSA/60: 7.79 with a 20-19-5 record.
Jarry’s contract of $5.375 Million is the 12th highest in the league. His Sv% of .908, this Calendar Year, is tied for 25th out of the 86 Goalies within a SD of the Mean. His HDSv% of 0.782 (When the team needs him most of all) 16th worst of the 86 Goalies within a SD of the Mean. His HDSA/60 of 7.79 is 20th lowest number of HDSA/60 of the 86 Goalies within a SD of the Mean.
The last month 2 months not with standing when Sullivan finally switched up his strategies to insulate his failing Goalie by sacrificing over 0.5 G/60, this is who our Goalie is.
Looking at these numbers, they confirm my eye test, Jarry is a very weak Goalie who is being buoyed up by his team. These numbers also validate my eye test. They show a Goalie who has poor rebound control, over-reacts to plays taking himself out of position, who is rarely on his angles, and who takes way to many chances playing the puck. He is the weak link on the black and gold.
If I could dump that contract on an unsuspecting team, I would take that trade in a heartbeat.
And in truth, friends of mine who often skate with past and present stars who have told me many things that I would rather not write about but that question Jarry’s locker room presence. Considering the knocks on Jarry coming out of Jrs and how despite having a better pedigree, was passed up by Murray, I believe them.
Again, I would dump that contract now when I may be able to and even be able to fleece someone that either really thinks he is a good Goalie or who thinks it may be a decent insurance policy for a playoff run.
Sorry
Rick & The Other Rick
The only way I trade Jarry is if Dubas and the staff feel like a younger goalie
in the organization is ready to make the jump to the NHL. Or they can try to
pry a younger goalie / prospect in the trade for Jarry.
Hey Other Rick.
Trade Jarry?
An interesting thought and certainly one worthy of a thoughtful response.
There are certainly compelling reasons for considering such a trade. Goaltending performances around the league have plunged to new depths. Many teams are desperate for even one competent goalie, let alone two. Although goalies traditionally don’t fetch much in trades, I think this year would prove to be an exception.
I also understand the allure of trading off Jarry’s contract ($5.375 AAV). A lot can happen (and go wrong) between now and the end of his five-year deal.
Too, Nedeljkovic has truly been a revelation thus far. Based on his performance to date, it sure would be nice to keep him long-term. He’s in a groove like no goalie I’ve ever seen.
Having said that, I would not trade Jarry. We’re blessed with the best goaltending we’ve had since the Cup years with Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury. History has shown the benefits of having two goalies capable of filling a starter’s role. Injuries happen. Remember when Murray went down on the eve of the ’17 playoffs? Fleury stepped in and backstopped us past the CBJ and the Caps, arguably our stiffest competition. You and I have both opined that we don’t get out of that Washington series without Flower between the pipes.
Too, as well as Nedeljkovic has played, and to my eye he’s been brilliant…I confess I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. As terrific as he was in Carolina, he only played 23 of the ‘Canes 57 games his rookie season. They traded him pretty much straight up for Jonathan Bernier, a good but hardly great veteran who has since retired.
Something must’ve gone disastrously wrong in Detroit for them to give up on him as quickly as they did. Maybe he wasn’t physically capable of handling a full-time start’s role. Ned isn’t the biggest guy in the world, and given his athletic style I’d think he’d burn up a lot of energy. Or maybe he just hit a downturn. Again, something we haven’t seen here.
I’m not comfortable just yet with the idea of anointing him as a full-time starter.
Too, I’m less-than-comfortable relying on kids like Blomqvist and Gauthier as backups (or perhaps starters in the event of an injury to Ned should we trade Jarry). Yes, their minor-league stats look good. But as Caleb and I discussed a few days ago, there’s a huge jump from the ECHL to the AHL...perhaps even more so to the NHL. Quite literally a whole other league.
Anyway, interesting piece and premise, and thanks for the impromptu update on the kids! I agree it is the one position where we appear to be well-stocked, prospects-wise.
Rick
Rick,
Let’s Compare Jarry to Ned over the last 365 days
HDSA/60 Jarry 7.79, Ned 8.73 – almost a full HDSA/60
HDSv% Jarry 0.782, Ned 0.801 – not as startling but still significantly better
Overall Sv% Jarry 0.908, Ned 0.922 – Significantly better
In Ned’s 2 years in Detroit his HDCA/60 were 13.11 and 13.91, he wasn’t getting any support. In his rookie season it was 10.02, he was getting plenty of support. If you give Ned the same support Jarry gets, he IS the BETTER Goalie.
As for kids taking you to the promised land, I really don’t want Blomqvist ruined by Sullivan, so no I would rather him be traded or held in reserve until Sullivan is gone, but who won the Cup for the Penguins in 2015-2016? Oh yes that is right it was the rookie Matt Murray, who was also 4th in the Conn Smythe voting behind Crosby, Kessel, and Letang, so it wasn’t just me out there that thought he was integral to that victory.
As for jumps between ECHL, AHL, and NHL, Gauthier isn’t just playing well, he is dominating. He doesn’t belong there. He is just stuck there because the clowns that be signed Hellberg to a contract (perennial nobody) who is now being an oxygen thief on the WBS roster blocking development of other players. Hellberg was the worst of the Penguins Goalies in training camp, but was given a pass and a WBS assignment, banishing a good kid to the nether regions of the ECHL.
If Gauthier was just a couple of points above the average then your worries would be well founded, but he is dominating.
As for Blomqvist, your boy Jarry’s stats in his 4 years in WBS were SV% of 0.905, 0.925, 0.901, and 0.915. His 2 AHL playoff seasons were 0.902 and 0.894. He was extremely underwhelming in WBS. Blomqvist has a 0.915 in his 1st season in WBS. (Unfortunately, they don’t tease out HDSA, MDSA, and LDSA, so we can’t get a better handle on these numbers)
I get it, the reason most people are average is that they are afraid of failure, so they constantly pass up the chance to truly succeed, opting instead for the mediocre safe route, then when they are confronted by the results they say “well hindsight is 20-20”. Well, I am saying this in foresight; roll the dice, Jarry’s track record is failure, so the highest probable result is continued failure. Making a change may still end in failure, but at least now the probability improves from near the certainty of status quo.
Hey Other Rick,
I know you don't like Jarry. We're simply going to have to agree to disagree on this one...
Rick
Hey Rick,
I don't know Jarry, personally, so I can't say I don't like him. However, everything I see from him, and what I am now hearing about him, he is a player I would never want on my team,
In the original post of this article, I was typing faster than I was thinking and mistakenly wrote Gauthier was a College Free Agent but thanks to our good friend, Rick B's catch I corrected it to read out of the WHL.
Thanks Rick, good catch.