When watching our Pittsburgh Penguins game after game, I find it increasingly challenging to gauge the team. One week, plagued by turnovers, a lackluster power play, and a palpable absence of energy, they slump into a four-game losing streak, prompting thoughts of their potential as a lottery team.
Yet, in a remarkable turnaround, they embark on a five-game winning streak, triumphing over formidable opponents such as Colorado, Vegas, and Boston. This resurgence ignites hope for a postseason push, only for the cycle to repeat itself, leaving fans oscillating between optimism and skepticism.
While it’s easy to dismiss the Pittsburgh Penguins as a mediocre .500 team, which I know we all have. But when firing on all cylinders, they exhibit the qualities of a genuine contender, a notion supported by statistical evidence, or perhaps maybe more confusing statistical evidence.
One perplexing statistic is the Pittsburgh Penguins’ goal differential of +16, a figure typically associated with teams securely positioned in playoff contention. Surprisingly, this surpasses several teams currently ahead of the Penguins in the standings, including the Tampa Bay Lightning, who hold the last wild card with a mere +1. Interestingly, the Lightning suffered a setback last night, albeit against the Flyers.
The next confusing stat, is that the Penguins are right there with the top teams in terms of 5v5. The Penguins xGoals % 5 on 5 is ranked 8th in the League at 51.88%. Above them is Philadelphia, Dallas, New Jersey, LA, Florida, Carolina and Edmonton.
Below the Penguins are Winnipeg, Nashville, Vancouver, Seattle, Colorado, Toronto, Boston, Vegas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and The Rangers. That’s a lot of really good teams, in fact that’s all of the contenders. The Penguins are five spots ahead of Colorado, and a whopping sixteen spots ahead of the Rangers! Sixteen spots ahead of the number one team in the Metro.
And for those who don’t know hockey nerd stats xGoals % or Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is simply a ratio of a teams xGF in comparison to the opposition. Anything over 50% indicates a team had more quality shots (possession) than the opposition, for a game, a period, etc.
Now the Penguins are 18th in the league for GF (Goals for) but also the 5th best team in GA (Goals Against) so essentially, it reflects exactly what you see, the Penguins keep the puck out of the net, but struggle to actually finish, but they’re getting a good amount of attempts and controlling a lot of possession.
I could go into some even deeper stats, but we’d go on forever just to get to this simple point.
Inconsistency….
No matter what way you slice it, the Penguins biggest problem is being a cohesive unit night to night. They’re all over the board in stats because the team is all over the board on the ice. Despite possessing the potential to excel in multiple facets, the Penguins’ success hinges on their ability to establish a unified identity and maintain consistency akin to teams like Boston, who, despite not boasting overwhelming depth, thrive as a cohesive and identity-driven unit.
With Drew O’Connor, Valtteri Puustinen, and now Emil Bemstrom all scoring, this team can compete if they’re consistent. They have one of the best goalie tandems in the league, they have the 5v5 play, they can play good defensively, and they have Sidney Crosby.
They also need to keep players like Puustinen, on the power play, it causes change in the play on the man advantage and leads to more goals. If the Penguins don’t start scoring on that power play, and they don’t play consistent, they will be most certainly missing the playoffs.
Important note is that the Penguins have five games in hand over Tampa, they also have four in hand on the Flyers who hold the third place spot in the Metro. Beating out Tampa or Philly is the Penguins best chance to make it into the playoffs. Based on the their current goal differential, barring of course that they win their games in hand, they could or should take one of those spots.
Last night, despite a short handed goal against, the Penguins battled to win against the Canucks 4-3 in overtime. That’s a good team to beat, but we’ve seen this song and dance before, look good and go on a small win streak, then go on another four game losing streak.
The Penguins can’t afford another four game losing streak, they can only lose nine games in regulation across their next twenty six games to get around 96 points. Which is about the average for one of the wild card spots. So that means 17-9-0 or something like 15-7-4.
But the biggest question I keep asking myself is. Do I even want the Penguins to make the playoffs? I know that’s a wild thing to say as a fan of a team, but can this Penguins group compete against a team like Carolina or Boston in a seven game series? What about if they get a win in the first round and in the second round you face the Florida Panthers?
While it’s true that securing a playoff spot opens the door to unexpected outcomes, there’s a looming dilemma for the Penguins. Should their winning streak continue, the decision to retain Jake Guentzel could lead to signing him to a hefty ten million dollar contract. However, if the team pulled their usual and lose in the first round, this scenario would leave them empty-handed, burdened with a difficult-to-move contract that absorbs the additional cap space gained from the anticipated increase.
You now signed a player turning thirty, on a team that has a lot of other players in their thirties and has seen no change for six years. A team that has lost in the first round ever since 2017 and completely missed the playoffs this previous year. Is the Penguins best bet trading players like Jake Guentzel and Tristian Jarry, and getting first round picks? Or trading for younger players who help Sidney and the core next year? That’s the way I’m leaning.
But the fan in me also wants them to make it, because hey, anything can happen right?
Right?….
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Hey Caleb,
Loved your article...and absolutely loved your conclusion(!?) With this bunch, up is down and down is up...unless it's vice versa. On any given night, we're like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates. You literally don't know what you're going to get.
I agree with your assessment. Like you, there are things I really (really) like about this team. Its battle readiness and ability to hang tough when down, even by a couple of goals like last night. Perhaps a direct reflection of the veteran leaders in the room...Crosby, Letang, Malkin, Eller, Karlsson and Acciari.
If we can somehow squeak into the postseason, I think this team is better able to play a playoff-style game than our last few playoff teams.
However, as you also pointed out...the maddening inconsistency. The nights when everyone (except Sid) looks like they're skating in Quikrete.
Fortunately, there haven't been as many of those lately. I think Puustinen has provided a huge (and desperately needed) spark. O'Connor has, too.
If you're Kyle Dubas, what on earth do you do? The team's outlook shifts...quite literally...from game to game. Sheesh!
I'll sum up my comments with a excerpt taken from my season preview back in October, pretty much foretelling what we've experienced. For once I think I hit the nail on the head. (Unless I didn't...lol.)
"Last night as I was working the front desk at Wright’s Gym, a member and fellow hockey nut asked me what I thought of our Penguins chances this season. After talking in circles for a couple of minutes, I shrugged my shoulders and told him I honestly didn’t know.
If everything breaks our way, I can see us leapfrogging the Rangers and snagging third place in the Metro. I can just as easily envision us slugging it out with the Islanders and other Eastern foes for a wild-card slot, much like we did last season.
In my worst nightmares? We sink into the Metro mire along with the Capitals, Blue Jackets and Flyers.
There are just so many variables. So many things that could go right…or wrong."
Rick
Hey Caleb,
If Dubas isn't a seller, now at the deadline, this team isn't a contender but a pretender.
People see what they want to see. This team doesn't have 2 good goalie, if it (the team) did, then they wouldn't be forced to sacrifice Offense, committing a full 5 man defensive unit to insulate them. Jarry's inability to play his angles and control rebounds put the team in a hole from which they had to dig out.
Several years back, everyone complained and with good reason, about the number of back-to-back games our Pens had to play. This year, almost every 3rd or 4th game our boys play seems to be an opponent at the back end of a back-to-back. Between the many, multiple days off the NHL schedulers gifted Sullivan at the beginning of the season, they also seem to be paying us back for the year back-to-back games was norm not the exception.
Unfortunately, these last 26 games will be played in 49 days or 1 game every 1.88 days.
It is past time to be sellers.
With all due respect, my friend, I don't agree with your assertion that the Pens are sacrificing offense to cover Jarry's behind.
We're 13th in the league (out of 32 teams) in 5v5 shot attempts, 10th in 5v5 shots on goal, 11th in 5v5 scoring chances for and 6th in 5v5 high-danger chances for. Since we've played fewer games than just about every other team, our per game rankings might be even higher.
Those numbers don't speak to a team that's turtling to protect their goalie a la the old New Jersey Devils and Martin Brodeur. If we were just spraying shots from the perimeter, you especially wouldn't see a jump in high-danger chances for.
I know you don't like Jarry, but he's not as bad as you make him out to be. Does he have his warts? Yes. Being a former goalie, you can speak to those better than I can. Is he a Vezina Trophy candidate? No. But he is a competent, above average starting goalie.
Rick
Rick,
I may sometimes joke that everyone has a right to my opinion but it is just a joke. As I said before, you can disagree with me all you want, this is still America. Having said that, I do remember a quote coming from you back in November, as the team dragged itself back up towards 0.500 hockey from the severe depths they had plunged in those opening games, that noting a shift in the Penguins forecheck and pressure and how impressed you were that the Coaching staff finally started to try and Coach the team of Fossil's that they had assembled in a more defensive manner, befitting their age, rather than the super up tempo attacking forecheck.
Therefore Rick, you have already acknowledged that you recognized the more defensive posture of the team. Are you now trying to say that you didn't say that? or that maybe you were wrong when you said that?
Jarry is effectively the 11th highest paid Goalie in the league right now (Price is still being paid but not playing). There were multiple games this season, particularly early on, were the team staked Jarry to a lead but the ersatz netminder found ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. if he would have just held on for 2 more victories, we may not really be having this conversation and the team would not only be well within striking distance of the 2nd Wild Card spot but 3rd place in the Metro.
If Jarry had to play on the teams that MAF played when he was first drafted, his W-L record would look like a large pile of offal. There is a reason the team hasn't won a playoff series under him and it is not Crosby, Malkin, or Letang.
Hey Rick,
I was really busy and didn't have time last night to verify this but checked this morning (more evidence of the team insulating Jarry more now than at the beginning of the season.
The Average shot distance Jarry faced at the beginning of the season was 31.57, from Nov 1 it has been buffered out to 34.85
The Teams overall CF/60 (5-on-5) in Oct was 69.85, since Nov 1 it has dropped to 63.23, the HDCF/60 (5-on-5) have dropped from 13.75 to 12.57. Th CA/60 (5-on-5) has gone up from 57.48 to 59.25, but the HDCA/60 (5-on-5) went down from 11.69 to 11.31. This all consistent with the team sacrificing Offense for Defense. They are getting less chances per game.
By the way the teams CF/60 5-on-5 was 2nd in the league in October and the HDCF/60 5-on-5 was 3rd wjhile the HDCA/60 5-on-5 climbed from 20th in October to 14th during from Nov until now. So our Pens did sacrifice team offense for team defense.
Sorry my friend but this is the plain truth.
Hey Other Rick,
This is in response to your last post (the site wouldn't let me reply in the normal way). You brought up the issue of record when I was at the gym earlier. As well as Jarry's performed, he's sitting at 17-17-4...sub .500.
With that in mind, I decided to take a very cursory look at the quality of opponents for Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic in games where they earned decisions.
As you might expect, Jarry faced teams currently in playoff spots in 20 of his 38 decisions, or roughly 53 percent. Ned faced teams currently in playoff spots in 7 of his 17 decisions...or about 41 percent. So you could argue that Jarry, rightfully since he's the starter, has had the tougher assignments.
However, their records against playoff vs non-playoff teams is eye-opening. Jarry is 6-10-4 against playoff teams and 11-7 against non-playoff teams. Ned is 4-1-2 against playoff teams, 5-3-2 against non-playoff teams.
Of course, there are lots of factors that go into wins and losses...run (goal) support, etc. But it is interesting and it does support your stance about Jarry to an extent.
Rick
Hey Other Rick,
I won't disagree with your assertion that we've tightened up defensively, although certainly not to the extent that we're a reincarnation of the old Devils (see rankings I quoted in my previous comment).
I will suggest that Jarry isn't the sole reason we've done so. Especially when you consider how pedestrian our defensive corps is with the likes of Ruhwedel, Joseph, Ludvig, Shea and the disappointing Ryan Graves taking regular turns. Karlsson isn't exactly text book in his own end, either. You could argue we only have two guys...Letang and Pettersson...consistently playing strong defense.
As for your assertion that Jarry isn't a good goalie, I decided to see how he stacks up to his fellow starters in the Metro. I'll let the numbers do the talking:
Goalie, Team, GAA, SV%, SH, QS% (Quality Starts), GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average)
Jarry, PIT, 2.57, .912, 6, .632, 8.4
Shesterkin, NYR, 2.65, .911, 1, .615, 8.3
Kochetkov, CAR, 2.35, .911, 3, .586, 5.7
Sorokin, NYI, 3.11, .909, 2, .585, 7.9
Merzlikins, CBJ, 3.25, .903, 1, .485, -0.5
Ersson, PHI, 2.55, .901, 3, .613, -2.4
Kuemper, WSH, 3.15, .893, 1, .481, -8.7
Vanacek, NJD, 3.18, .890, 0, .414, -11.9
For the record, Shesterkin's a Vezina winner and Sorokin a Vezina runner-up. Jarry's outperforming them both.
Rick
Hey Rick,
First response is I never said that I think that the rest of the metro employs quality Goalies, I merely stated that Jarry is paid better than 21 other starting Goalies but isn't playing like that.
Second, Kochetkov is Carolina's 3rd string Goalie, go back to the above statement.
Third, I don't give a rats posterior about the QS stat, it is a very useless stat that means nothing, akin to Dominik Simon's CORSI%
Now lets look at these numbers Rick, compare and contrast your Goalies at the beginning of the season when the Pens were not playing full team defense. (5-on-5)
Name - Salary - HDSA/60 - SA/60 - GAA - Sv%
Shesterkin - $5.667 - 6.11 - 24.23 - 2.17 -0.911
Merzlikins - $5.400 -7.61 - 30.21 - 3.33 - 0.890
Jarry - $5.375 - 7.93 - 27.06 - 2.71 - 0.900
Kuemper - $5.250 - 6.59 - 28.28 - 2.55 - 0.910
Sorokin - $4.000 - 6.95 - 31.81 - 2.11 - 0.934
Vanacek - $3.400 - 7.32 - 28.33 - 2.83 - 0.900
Kochetkov - $2.000 - 5.94 - 25.73 - 2.97 - 0.885
Ersson - 0.859 - 4.29 - 21.03 - 4.29 - 0.796
The list goes from highest paid to lowest paid Goalies. Jarry is the 3rd highest paid Goalie in that Group but his Sv% with very little difference between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, yet his Sv% was significantly lower than 3 of those Goalies, including 2 that get paid less than him.
Now let's look at those stats since November 1
Name -Salary - HDSA/60 - SA/60 - GAA - Sv%
Shesterkin - $5.667 - 8.13 - 30.29 - 2.42 - 0.920
Merzlikins - $5.400 - 8.36 - 33.26 - 2.77 - 0.917
Jarry - $5.375 - 7.600 - 27.61 - 2.21 - 0.926
Kuemper - $5.250 - 7.30 - 28.42 - 2.88 - 0.899
Sorokin - $4.000 - 7.95 - 32.56 -2.38 - 0.927
Vanacek - $3.400 - 7.38 - 28.20 - 2.76 - 0.902 - LTIR
Kochetkov - $2.000 - 6.28 - 24.26 - 2.11 - 0.920
Ersson - 0.859 - 6.35 - 24.22 - 2.04 - 0.916
Now, Since Nov 1, when the team D kicked in, I am seeing that Jarry is facing significantly less Shots and high danger shots against the Goalies getting paid more than him -big surprise his Sv% rose and is better than theirs. Sorokin is getting paid $1.375 Million less than Jarry, facing more High Danger chances and significantly more shots than Jarry and has a slightly higher Sv%. And I am also seeing Kochetkov and Ersson getting paid significantly less than Jarry with comprable Sv%s albeit signiicantly less HDSA and SHA.
There is a reason why Jarry's Pts% is below average. He is the problem. He is a loser that has no idea of how to play goal. His team is insulating him. He needs to donate his salary to the forwards who are covering his posterior.
Look a little deeper and you will find more answers, answers to questions like why is Jarry's Pts% pathetic while his Sv% is average.