In a recent article, I panned the notion that our Penguins would be a destination spot for top-of-line free agents like Florida’s Sam Reinhart. Or that we might be able to land young impact players like Utah power forward Lawson Crouse or Ottawa defenseman Jakob Chychrun for any of the players we’d dangle as trade bait.
Still, as it stands now we do have roughly $13 million in cap space to spend. Certainly enough to fill a few areas of need.
And what exactly are those needs?
We could use, in no particular order, a second/third-line center (or both), a left-shot defenseman, preferably with some snarl, and a top-six forward who can finish and provide a boost to our woebegone power play. Not to mention an experienced backup goalie should Alex Nedeljkovic walk.
Center
Four UFAs-to-be immediately come to mind…Steven Stamkos, Matt Duchene, Elias Lindholm and Chandler Stephenson.
Coming off a contract that pays him $8.5 million per, I’ll admit Stamkos is a pipe dream. But, man, can Stammer blister the puck (40 goals in 2023-24). He’s a power-play demon and tough on faceoffs as well (56 percent last season). Plays with an edge, too.
Of course, if we weren’t going to invest in 29-year-old Jake Guentzel, it’s hard to imagine us doing the same with the 34-year-old Stamkos.
Among the more realistic options, Duchene landed in Dallas after being bought out by Nashville and enjoyed a strong 25-goal, 65-point season. Great in the faceoff circle (56.5 percent) and a bargain at $3 million.
The only drawback beside his age (33)? Matt’s been a bit of a roller-coaster performer throughout his career. Still, he could check a lot of boxes and allow us to slide Evgeni Malkin to wing.
Two years removed from a 42-goal season in Calgary, Elias Lindholm was traded to Jimmy Rutherford’s Canucks when it was clear he wouldn’t re-sign with the Flames. His output tumbled in the process, along with his advanced stats.
Perhaps a bit of a gamble. Still, the 29-year-old is regarded as one of the better two-way centers in the game. How much of a bump he’ll command from his current AAV of $4.85 remains to be seen.
Chandler Stephenson also experienced a fall-off after serving as a driving force behind the Golden Knights’ Cup triumph last season. Projecting the 30-year-old as a No. 2 center may be a bit of a stretch, although he’s averaged 60 points over his last three seasons.
The gritty 209-pounder will also earn a significant raise over his current rate of $2.75 million.
What the heck…I’ll toss a fifth name out there. Once upon a time in a galaxy far, far away (Calgary) Sean Monahan was an 82-point scorer before falling on dark times. The 6’2” 196-pounder did much to resurrect his career last season, tallying 26 goals and 59 points in a campaign split between the Habs and Jets, and for a cool $2 million to boot.
Top-Six Forward
Were the Pens by some miracle able to sign Stamkos, it would take care of the need for another top-six forward. In effect killing two birds with one stone.
If not, there ‘s no shortage of forwards who could provide some punch…literally and figuratively.
With back-to-back 30-goal seasons on his resume, ex-King Tyler Toffoli is a proven scorer and power-play contributor. The 32-year-old winger earned $4.25 million in a season split between the Devils and Jets.
Tyler Bertuzzi (Leafs) and Jake DeBrusk (Bruins) combine scoring touch with sandpaper. I’d probably prefer the former, who’s a touch more abrasive. He was also the pricier of the two, earning $5.5 million to a more manageable $4 million for DeBrusk. A couple years older, too (29 vs. 27).
As for sleeper choices? Much travelled Anthony Duclair skates like the wind and can score (24 goals), although he’s a defensive liability (disaster). Sounds like a clone of former Pens second rounder Daniel Sprong, who also happens to be a pending UFA.
Viktor Arvidsson, late of the Kings, has topped 30 goals twice and is a consistent 20-plus goal scorer. His ’23-24 season was a virtual washout due to recovery from back surgery and a lower-body injury. But the veteran winger still scored at a near point-per-game clip (15 points in 18 games) and could probably be signed at a discounted rate.
Although he’s not a top-of-the-line offensive threat (27 goals over two seasons), I like the bang, grind and work ethic the Hurricanes’ Stefan Noesen provides.
Defense
Speaking of bang and grind, one name jumped off the page at left defense. Brenden Dillon is big (6’4” 225 pounds), ornery and capable (eight goals, plus-20 for the Jets). The 33-year-old rearguard would provide the physicality (241 hits) and gristle (seven fights in ’23-24) we’ve lacked for far too long on our blue line.
Alas, early reports have linked the BC native to his home province Canucks.
My other option for our defense? Current Canucks masher Nikita Zadorov.
‘Canes pillars Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce are also up for renewal. The 30-year-old Skjei ($5.25 AAV) is likely out of our price range and Pesce, while more affordable at $4.025 million, plays the right side where we’re comparatively well-stocked.
Goal
With Nedeljkovic probably headed to free agency and Joel Blomqvist’s readiness still a question mark, we’ll likely be in the market for an experienced 1A/backup netminder. One who can assume the starter’s role should Tristan Jarry falter as he is wont to do.
Dillon’s teammate with the Jets, Laurent Brossoit, enjoyed an outstanding season (2.00 GAA, .927 SV%) backing up Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg. The 30-year-old earned $1.75 million last season.
Anthony Stolarz likewise shone in a backup role for the Cup-finalist Panthers. The mammoth 6’6” 243-pounder posted a 2.03 GAA and sparkling .925 SV%. All for a tidy cap hit of $1.1 million.
Given the state of goaltending around the league, both are sure to draw plenty of interest.
Although he’s not a pending UFA, there are rumblings the Wild might seek to move Filip Gustavsson. The former black-and-gold prospect was outstanding in ’22-23…and not so much last season. He earns $3.75 million per.
The interesting thing about the Malkin discussion is, at 37 (last season – he turns 38 next month), Geno still tied for 26th in terms of Points/60 among Centers with 400 min or more 5-on-5 and alone at 26th in terms of Goals/60 under the same conditions. Therefore, despite the haters, #71 would still be a No.1 Center on any other team, despite being saddled with Wingers of far less quality and having to try and cover-up for pathetic Defensemen and even a worse Goalie.
If the wooden headed decision makers on this team would find a way to divest themselves of Jarry and the bulk of their LHD and go with the line up I suggested earlier,
Debrusk – Crosby – Puustenin
Koivunen – Malkin – Rust
Bunting – Yager – Giroux
TBD – Eller – TBD
At least 3 younger players/rookies sprinkled in between veterans.
With their D assembled as
Zadorov – Letang
Chychrun – Pesce
Graves – St. Ivany
They would be at least a playoff team that could get out of the first round (under any other Coach but who they have – Sully would need McDavid, Draisaitl, McKinnon, Matthews, Hughes, Makar, and Hellybuck to get there, elite stars that can make any system, no matter how pathetic, work)
Sorry, meant to put that under your reply
Hey Rick,
Interesting thoughts. I gave my thoughts for the moment – some crossover with you. I do like the idea of getting Zadorov, Pesce and Debrusk as well as Brossoit, Stolarz and/or Ned in FA, but that is about it.
I do have to diverge from you on Malkin. I hear the complaints all the time about Malkin and his defense and not being able to play Center anymore, but last season, he was their best defensive Center 5-on-5 when in terms of GA/60 and he led the league in Tk. Furthermore, even though I advocated getting Duchene back when he wanted out of Colorado, he has lost a serious amount of luster (this past season not withstanding).
As for Sprong, I have always stated he was a good offensive talent and was extremely angered by Sullivan’s inability to put his own ego aside in his scraps with players like Cole, Kessel, Sprong etc. my only interest in seeing him back in Pgh would be hte rection from those people who tried to deny that the kid could play hockey. I have since had many conversations with players who skated with and against him that find his personality more than a bit of a distraction. Maybe he has grown up, but I don’t see a pressing need to bring him back.
First, as I have mentioned in the past, it is hard to tease out how much of the Penguins’ scoring problem is a lack of talent and how much of it is due to strategic and tactical flaws in Sullivan’s “system”. Under a different system, with a Goalie that these guys could trust, they could have flourished.
Interesting note on comparing Jarry to former Penguin Matt Murray (over the last 3 seasons)
Jarry’ – HDSv% (All Situations): 0.799, HDsv% (Tied): 0.788
Murray – HDSv% (All Situations): 0.823, HDSv% (Tied): 0.837
Our Penguins would have been infinitely better off with Murray than Jarry. When defenses break down, Murray has been far better in those High Danger Situations and more importantly, when the game is on the line, Murray still bears down. His HDSv% goes up, however, at crunch time Jarry always chokes; his HDSv% drops, widening the gap between their respective effectiveness. (please don’t mistake that as me wanting to bring Murray back though, I just want Jarry out of here 3 years ago.)
Hey Other Rick,
A follow-up on moving Malkin to wing. In their evaluation of Geno, Pensburgh pointed out that the big guy no longer possesses the speed he once did (at 38, who does?) and that his overall game really isn’t suited to playing the wing.
My guess…and it’s just a guess. They’ll keep Geno at center and try to get a stronger third-line center (Stephenson?) while bumping Lars Eller to 4C.
Rick