Okay, so as I started trying to write this post about armchair GMing, starting with the upcoming draft, however, developments have caused me to rewrite my thoughts. “What developments?” you may ask, and with good reason.
- The New York Rangers have decided to send our Pittsburgh Penguins their first-round pick in this year’s draft, 12th I was hoping that they would be thinking that they would be back in the playoffs next year and take the lower pick this year, giving us next year’s pick. This makes me wonder how confident they are in their team right now, and/or if there will be some sort of shenanigans next season.
- Reports are surfacing that Erik Karlsson has told the Penguins that he would waive his No Movement Clause (NMC) in an effort to be traded to a team with a chance to win the Cup. For those of you readers that have been here since before Karlsson came here, you will note that I hated that trade from the start. However, be advised, I am not in that camp that blames Karlsson for the fiasco that was these last two seasons.
I wanted to start my armchair GMing by discussing the upcoming draft, but a possible Karlsson trade could and would impact my trading strategy. The first team that comes to my mind to trade with is the Ottawa Senators. There was a lot of talk last season that Ottawa would be interested in getting their one-time Norris trophy winner back. Now that they are a playoff hopeful and in need of a Right-Handed Defenseman RHD, with Nick Jensen out with a hip injury and not due back until September, they may be in the market for a homecoming of sorts.
When discussing this with my occasional colleague, Caleb, he wanted to grab Shane Pinto. (Caleb, I wouldn’t turn down Pinto, if he were to come back in a trade, but I want their first-round pick in this season’s draft.) To me, the player I would choose with their draft pick would be far more valuable. In fact, I would be willing to retain as much as $3 million to get a deal done with Ottawa. (Karlsson only has two more years left on his contract.)
Two other very significant reasons why I want as many picks in this draft as is possible (rather than other team’s players), are that even though there’s not a lot of high-end talent in this draft, there are a great deal of grit players whom our Penguins desperately need. Secondly, there is significant value in coming up through an organization’s ranks. Players who cut their teeth together play harder for each other.
A Karlsson trade is the only trade I would work on right now, so that I could get on with my draft.
So, without further ado how my first four rounds of the draft would look:
Round 1, Pick 11 – Kashawn Aitcheson
Round 1, Pick 12 – Justin Carbonneau (courtesy of the New York Rangers)
Round 1, Pick 21 – Bill Zonnon (courtesy of my deal with Ottawa Senators)
Round 2, Pick 59 – Peyton Kettles (courtesy of the Washington Capitals)
Round 3, Pick 73 – Tomas Poletin
Round 3, Pick 84 – Seymon Frolov (courtesy of the Nashville Predators)
Round 3, Pick 85 – Mace’O Phillips (courtesy of the Ottawa Senators)
Round 4, Pick 105 – Shamar Moses
Kashawn Aitcheson
Our friend Rick Buker did a post on Aitcheson earlier this off-season, but to remind you, he is a 6’-1”, 198lb Left-Handed Defenseman (LHD) out of the OHL and the Barrie Colts. This team needs a player with Aitcheson’s snarl. His hits, often in open ice, have a strong shot from the point; both a strong wrist shot and slap shot. He is not Bobby Orr, but he is exactly what the doctor is ordering for this team.
Jordan Orth of the Hockey Writers (tHW) wrote of him “One of the most physical defensemen in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), Kashawn Aitcheson has no problem throwing his weight around when given the chance…..his offensive game has also taken a massive jump this season. Armed with a dangerous shot, he has become more involved in the offensive zone. He possesses a strong wrist, snap, and slap shot from the point.”
Steven Ellis of the Daily Faceoff (DF) said of him, “He has the potential to be an intimidating force in the NHL – someone who just gives opponents nothing to work with. His physicality is the best attribute of his game because he’s willing to get involved with just about anyone.”
Justin Carbonneau
Carbonneau is a 6’-1”, 192lb Right Wing (RW) out of the QMJHL and the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. Our Penguins really haven’t had a true RW scoring threat since Mike Sullivan ran Phil Kessel out of town (No surprise that the team’s offense has suffered since then – opponents only need cover one end of the ice). Like the aforementioned Kessel, there are lapses in his defensive zone, not so much from effort, more of a question of learning. Therefore, Carbonneau is not going to crack the big club’s line up this year (or probably not next year). He is a bit of a project, but his size and skills will help reshape the DNA of this team.
Jordan Orth (tHW) “His game excels in transition thanks to his speed and vision. He uses his shiftiness to work through the neutral zone and gain steam to get set up in the offensive game. He also shows some power forward elements in his game, having the capability of protecting the puck well and working himself into high-danger areas. Carbonneau has the skill to be a shooting threat or a setup guy. When given the time and space to get a shot off, he has the ability to shoot from any position and spot in the offensive zone, thanks to a great release with his shot. But when he does not have a shooting lane himself, he is constantly looking for a spot to make a play and pass to a teammate.”
Steven Ellis (DF) noted “Carbonneau’s game has a lot of high-end attributes. Great skater? Check. Excellent shot release? Absolutely. A bit of an edge, at times? You bet. Carbonneau loves to make big, flashy, high-end plays and often comes out on the right side of it.”
Bill Zonnon
As with Aitcheson, our friend Rick Buker wrote an article about Zonnon as well. To save you a little time looking back into the archives, Zonnon is a 6’-2”, 190 lbs Left Wing (LW) who can also play Center if needed. This kid has a great shot and isn’t afraid to use it. Watching him play, unlike the timid flightless fowl of past seasons he will fire the puck at the net is he detects even a crack to slip the biscuit through. More importantly for me, he is another hard-hitting player who will think nothing of plastering an opposing Defenseman into the boards on the forecheck.
Peter Bracchini (tHW) is quoted as saying “His compete level, hockey sense and intensity jump off the page. He utilizes his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame and speed extremely well to win battles, create separation from puck and player and establish and dominate a forecheck. He plays with an edge, adding a physical element to his game in order to win those 50/50 battles. He does a great job to cut in front of players and seal off the wall and quickly regain possession in the offensive zone and his ability to drive to the middle always makes him a threat….Zonnon’s shot is not to be messed with as he’s fully capable of creating quality scoring chances. When he has the time and space, he will unleash his quick wrist shot, always seeming to pick the corners.”
Peyton Kettles
The player I would take with my sole second round pick would be Kettles. Kettles is 6’-5”, 194
lbs (RHD). He was not an offensive force in the Juniors, but he made his presence felt. (If you are detecting a theme with my picks, you are right, I want size and strength, and this draft year has the type of players to start laying the foundation for just that sort of team.)
Jordan Orth (tHW) wrote of him, “If you like a big-bodied defenseman who can shut down an opponent’s top forward line, then Swift Current Broncos defenseman Peyton Kettles is a player you will love to watch. Kettles is constantly matched up against the opposing team’s top players, whether it is in special teams play or at five-on-five.”
Steven Ellis (DF) was quoted as saying “Kettles didn’t put up many points in Swift Current, but he wasn’t afraid to absolutely blast someone. The 6-foot-5 defender takes up a ton of space, defends well and is decently mobile for his size. He can kill penalties, and I actually think he’s better offensively than his offensive numbers would suggest.”
So, maybe if Ellis is right, Kettles just may be able to contribute in both zones.
Tomas Poletin
Continuing with my desire to reshape the Smurf identity of this team into men’s hockey, Peyton is a 6’-1”, 196lb LW coming out of Praha CZE, via the Pelicans organization of the Finnish league (Lliga). In the third-round you do not need to look for scoring players but grit players and Poletin is just that.
Dayton Reimer (tHW) writes of him, “When the game is on the line, you want Tomas Poletin on your team. The 6-foot-1 Czech winger is the perfect supporting player. He finishes plays, crashes the net, throws big hits in the corners, and forces turnovers. He knows where to be and what to do when he gets there and has proven time and again throughout his draft season that he could be relied on to do what it takes to help his team win.”
Gabriel Foley of Recruit Scouting noted “Poletin really looks the part. He’s got a great frame and sharp, powerful, smooth skating. He gets on his horse and pursues the puck well. He’s sharp in tight and engages opponents well with his stick and body. Knows how to win the puck out of a tight spot and make quick plays to lock in possession. And he’s strong on the puck.”
Poletin is also a work in progress probably won’t be in a Penguins uniform next season, but do these reports not sound a little like Patric Hornqvist? Who wouldn’t want to try and find another warrior like that man in a third-round pick.
Semyon Frolov
With the 84th Pick, I would tap Semyon Frolov. Frolov is a 6’-3”, 203lbs Russian Goalie. His contract got bought out by Spartka Moskva, a team contending for a championship. Because of the contract buyout and playing on a championship contending team, he lost a lot of playing time to an older Goalie, Yaroslav Kuzmenko. The lack of playing time hurt Frolov’s draft potential. In fact, right now I see him being projected as a very late 3rd round pick.
Considering last season’s lack of playing time and our Penguins having two kids in the minors with extremely high upside, it may seem like Frolov would be a bad pick. However, consider this, Goalies are very volatile players. One season they may be Vezina Trophy candidates, but the next year they end up having trouble stopping beach balls rolling at them.
Dylan Griffin of Elite Prospects (EP) wrote of Frolov, “He was able to read plays at a very high rate, getting across the net quickly to stifle a few major scoring chances, including a defensive breakdown that opened up a cross-crease, one-timer that he was able to get his glove on to send it past the net. Seemed like he was never losing track of the puck through screens and overall played a very secure game.”
Griffin’s quote may not be a rousing endorsement of Frolov, but since this is my third third-round pick, in my book Frolov is worth it.
Mace’O Phillips
Matthew Buhrmann (tHW) gushed about this kid, “Phillips has NHL qualities as a true shutdown defenseman. His range alone takes up huge areas of the ice, and he does a great job against the rush, holding tight gaps, angling opponents away from the net, and using his stick to break up plays. He’s aggressive in the defensive zone, quickly identifying threats, smothering his opponents, picking off passes to the slot, and blocking shots. His reach is a weapon, suffocating attackers and forcing mistakes, and he’s never shy about throwing a heavy hit into the boards. When contact isn’t an option, he’s lifting sticks and poke-checking to keep the play moving away from his net. He also protects the slot well, clearing traffic, making sure his goalie isn’t screened in front”.
The Neutral Zone noted “Phillips isn’t just big—he skates like a player six inches shorter. His first few steps allow him to close quickly on puck carriers, and his edgework below the dots allows him to contain shifty forwards. He maintains a wide, low stance and plays with a controlled intensity that rarely sees him off-balance.”
Shamar Moses
I only have looked through the first four rounds. I haven’t really had time to be a true NHL scout sifting through seven rounds of players. Therefore, I will close my draft primer with Shamar Moses. Moses is a 6’-1”, 203 lbs RW out of the OHLs North Bay Battalion.
Jordan Orth (tHW) writes of him, “One of the first things you notice when he is on the ice is his offensive skill set. Moses has a strong mix of puck handling, passing, and a shot to make him a threat anywhere in the offensive zone…Starting with his puck handling, Moses plays with great deception when he has the puck on his stick, and it keeps defenders guessing what he will do with it. He also has the vision and IQ to look off a defender and make a strong pass, and can sense the game very well and drop the puck to an area for a teammate to pick it up for a chance.”
Kohen Willis Dengler of FC Hockey writes “Standing out with his size, Moses shows flashes of strong puck protection and soft hands for a player of his frame. He’s a smart playmaker who reads the offensive zone well and makes good decisions with the puck. His ability to battle down low and maintain body positioning is a strength, and he consistently plants himself in front of the opposing net to screen goaltenders or look for deflections.”
Conclusions
- First, I must confess that I only have been able to watch prospects projected to go in the first round. It is far harder to find actual game footage of most of the other players. Some do have short highlight reels, but highlight reels usually only show you the good things not the limitations.
- All of these players have one thing in common; they are not “Sullivan-type” players. They are all big and except for the Goalie I want to draft, have shown an edge and drive to win and not wilt.
- Do I think all of these players will make the NHL? No. However, it is a numbers game; sort through as many gritty, character players as possible and this draft has a number of them.
- When next I write, my armchair GMing will lead me through Fee Agency and other trades (besides the Karlsson proposal).
- Feel free to critique my thoughts and add your own armchair ideas.
Hey Other Rick,
First, let me say I love your approach. There’s such a dearth of grinding, physical, hard-competing types in the organization, I’m all for trying to stock up on as many as we can. Build your foundation first, then add the superstructure.
If we could possibly come away with Aitcheson and Zonnon I’d be thrilled. The former is a wrecking machine, to quote Mickey from Rocky III. He relishes hitting and contact the way Brooks Orpik used to, and he can skate and shoot. I think Zonnon has an upside not unlike Tom Wilson’s. Not exactly the same kind of player…I actually think Zonnon is more skilled.
Both he and Aitcheson have so much drive, and like you, that’s what I’m looking for.
In the late 1990s, the Pens had taken a string of unimposing Euros with their first picks, including Aleksey Morozov, Robert Dome, Milan Kraft and Konstantin Koltsov, with predictable results.
Then in 2000, then-GM Craig Patrick completely changed direction and took Orpik, a human battering ram, with his top pick and followed up by selecting equally bristling forward Patrick Foley a few rounds later. Towering defenseman David Koci, too.
It was literally like someone ripped the phonograph needle off the record. It began a trend of the Pens making a conscious effort to draft guys who were harder to play against and it paid dividends a few seasons down the road.
As you mentioned, take what’s there. If there’s an abundance of grit and toughness in front of you, go for it.
Rick
PS–Thanks for doing this. Great job!
PSS–Just watched clips of Phillips. Like you said, he can really skate for a monster. SOLD!!!