Penguins Activate McGroarty and Blomqvist

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• The Other Rick
  I don’t mean to sound sarcastic, but the reality is that all statistics carry a degree of subjectivity—how they’re chosen, interpreted, and applied can vary widely. That’s why it’s often more effective to rely on the eye test as your primary evaluation tool and use statistics to support it. This approach provides a more balanced and accurate understanding
  than depending on the numbers alone.

  • Mike,

    I won't argue with you that Statistics CAN have a degree of subjectivity, particularly when a person is trying to push an opinion. People will seek the most obscure stat at times to support their ideas, even if the stat is non sequitur. However, sports is always about stats. Wins and Loses are Stats and so are Points or Goals for or against. The teams with the most Wins and Losses get to play for the championships. Wins are accumulated through actual Goals For (GF) vs Goals Against (GA). Wins are not accumulated by an eye test - this team looks like it should win vs this team looks like it should lose. Many times in a season one team will look like it outplayed the other but still lose games or be outplayed and still win. The only thing that does count is which team is on the positive side of the Goal differential.

    In the world of statistics, the further away from the most basic statistics, in this case actual GF vs GA, the weaker the statistics become. Actual GF and GA have extremely strong correlations to Ws and Ls, approaching 1. One of more favorite quotes I ever heard was a certain QB playing in the old USFL, in the mid 80s, in an interview after a game, say "I felt if we could score more points than the other team, we would stand a very good chance of winning." I would have liked to reply, Thank you Captain Obvious, but that is the exact definition of winning.

    Statistics do need to be viewed judiciously. Primary stats have always got to take precedence over secondary, tertiary, or any further derivations of stats. With every step away from a primary stat, there comes greater and greater error. I do not know exactly how the xGA stat is derived but if the stat is derived from SOG and SOG only have a weak correlation (if I remember it is only like 0.67) then xGA is even a weaker stat. I would only use that stat to tease out between two Goalies with nearly identical actual GA and only after I looked into how the authors of that stat derived the stat, so that I truly understood the limitations of the stat.

    If the creators of that stat treat every shot the same, regardless of the shooter (ie a shot from Ovie in his hey day treated the same as shot from Dominik Simon - really) then the xGA is a completely useless stat.

• And Blomqvist was named 3rd star and McGroarty 2nd star in their first games back from injury. McGroarty scored a Goal and Blomqvist only ceded 1 Goal against on 24 shots against.

  Both players do need to get themselves back into game shape (NHL level Game shape) but in Blomqvist's case, he is the best Goalie in the Organization and Kyle Dubas' statement "they would be assigned to WBS to earn their way to the NHL club." Blomqvist proved he was the best Goalie. Dubas has simply proven in Toronto and in Pgh that he hasn't a clue about Goaltending.

  • Hey Other Rick,

    I saw that both Blomqvist and McGroarty had strong first games, which is certainly great to see.

    I know you're particularly high on Blomqvist and really like his technique. However, I'd caution against anointing him the best goalie in the organization just yet. I know last season was perhaps a bit of an outlier in that none of our goalies, including Blomqvist, played particularly well behind our porous team defense. But I still think the kid has a bit of proving to do, especially at the NHL level.

    Switching tracks, Ville Koivunen's out day-to-day (for now) with a lower-body injury. Sheesh! It seems we can't catch a break unless it's a bad one.

    At any rate, it appears Danton Heinen will be drawing back in for now. Nothing against Danton personally, but like you I hate that we're loading back up with veterans.

    I think Dubas is walking a bit of a tight rope in that he doesn't want to totally gut the Baby Pens at this stage. But at the minimum, I'd swap out Sam Poulin for Kevin Hayes or Heinen and Boko Imama for Koppanen. Instead of just taking up space, Boko would get in on the forecheck and hit and create some positive energy. He Lizotte and Dewar could be a real buzz-saw fourth line.

    Rick

    • Hey RIck,

      I would be cautious anointing Blomqvist the best Goalie in the Organization if the organization had better Goaltending, but they don't. Jarry stinks. His numbers this season are not horrible but that is more of a testament to the low quality of shooters he has faced. When you multiply the S% of the players that have taken shots at him against the number of shots they have taken, Jarry's Sv% should be about 30 points higher - last I checked. Silovs' numbers are closer to the quality of shooter he has faced but his rebound control is horrible. He has the worst rebound control in the league. He gives up nearly 8 rebounds per 60min 5-on-5. The average among Goalies within a standard deviation of the mean is only 5 (which is a bit high this year but not as high as Silovs).

      Blomqvist's only competition is Murashov. I do like Murashov and think under a Goalie coach like Bales, the kid could become another MAF or perhaps statistically better if they get him that Coach at a younger age, however, he isn't there yet. Murashov is still raw and over reacts, relying on his athleticism rather than good fundamentals.

      Perhaps the worst in the organization is Dubas' reach in this past entry draft. The kid Dubas wasted a 3rd round pick on has a Sv% of 0.882 right now in the Jrs. his best Sv% was 0.883. The Pens could have signed him as an over-aged junior a couple of years from now and not used a draft pick on him at all. An absolute waste of assets!!!!

      You mention Koivunen's being injured. Did you notice how few man games lost to injury Sullivan's boys were incurring over the past several season compared to this season. Perhaps the injury bug is tied into the compete level of the team. rather than rolling over and playing dead like Sullivan's teams did, these kids are fighting for it.

      What was it that Eomer says of Pipin in the LOTR saga "I do not doubt his heart, only the reach of his arm." Well I don't doubt Heinen's compete level. He gives his all and I would rather he play than a veteran who is just phoning it in. What I do doubt is Heinen's skill level. He is past his prime and for all of his effort, he is just going to add less and less to the outcome of games. Unless FSG is taking a page out of Nutting's play book and just going through the motions to make as much money as possible, Heinen is not the guy to be putting on the ice; neither is Kevin Hayes, Novak ot Tomasino.

      As for stripping WBS of talent, that is exactly why WBS exists, to develop players and cede them to the parent club when the need arises. The Parent club is of prime importance not the farm team. Gutting the farm team to ensure a playoff run is what matters not the parent club muddling through mediocrity so that the farm team can win the Calder Cup. Priorities!!!

      • Hey Other Rick,

        There are so many ways to measure a goalie's success, but I found the following interesting. These numbers were posted by a commenter on Pensburgh, the data via PuckMoney.

        Silovs 10 G 25 GA 33.39 xGA, +8.4 goals
        Jarry 7 G 18 GA 22.81 xGA +4.8 goals
        Murashov 2 G 3 GA 4.01 xGA +1.0 goals

        According to that site's criteria, each of our goalies have outperformed the expected.

        Rick

        • Sorry Rick, but I not a fan of the xGA stat, it is a subjective stat. There are way too many variables on any given shot to take into account. Perhaps the most important one being the skill level of the person shooting the puck. Other lesser important factors would be how much back pressure the defense was driving as well as the desperation of the situation and/or the psych level of the shooter (i.e. was the shooter in a slump and over thinking the shot).

          That is why I go through and multiply opponents shots against vs their shots taken. I can't take into account situational hockey but at least I balance out the skill of the shooter.

          I also look at the number of rebound shots a Goalie faces. It is a rather telling feature when Goalie faces a lot of HDCA. The story it tells is how that Goalie is his own worst enemy because of his own lack of ability to control the rebounds.

          I also like to look at Goalie Gv - unforced errors by Goalies.

          As I wrote above, Jarry has really benefited from facing low quality shooters, while Silovs has been a little better, closer to the shooters skill level.

          Right now, our Penguins are winning and that is a good thing. However, every time they play a good team with real shooters, the Goalies get exposed and writers don't understand why. The answer is simple, these Goalies of ours are feasting on bad teams and fans do not want to look at the other side of the coin. Nashville's S% is 29th in the league, that is why they only scored 2 Goals all weekend.

          Their Sv% is also 28th in the league, so a bigger question is why did our Pens only manage 1 G in game one of the series?