Now that the Penguins’ hot streak has passed (1-2-2 in our last five games) and the dust is once again settling on our season, the immediate future isn’t too rosy.
Masked in part by a surprisingly productive power play (31 goals, 25.62 conversion rate), we’re among the worst teams in the league in goals for percentage 5v5 (43.09). Despite our hockey .500 record, we have the third-worst goal differential (-27). Only bottom-feeders Chicago and San Jose are worse.
In an effort to staunch the early season bleeding and better insulate our goalies and threadbare defense, coach Mike Sullivan has tightened things up in the neutral zone. While his adjustments have had the desired effect on the back end, we’ve slipped below break-even in possession and play-driving stats like Corsi (49.44) and xGF% (49.81).
A classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
It reinforces our lower-middle-class standing and underscores the fact that there simply isn’t enough high-end talent to go around. In particular, there’s a glaring hole on Evgeni Malkin’s right flank that has yet to be filled despite a virtual revolving door of wannabes such as former sixth-overall pick Cody Glass. At age 38 and understandably so, Geno isn’t what he used to be, either.
Unfortunately, things probably aren’t going to improve any time soon. Unless he can find another Philip Tomasino (currently on IR) dangling in the trade winds or on the waiver wire, Kyle Dubas isn’t likely to swing a deal for the additional help that might prop the team up in the short run. He’s stated as much on numerous occasions.
While it’s difficult to know exactly our GM’s end game is, given the absence of contract talks, it’s safe to say pending UFA Marcus Pettersson is as good as gone. If we continue to tread water or sink, perhaps Rickard Rakell and/or Bryan Rust might follow. The latter two in particular might fetch an attractive return.
Our Metro blood rival, the Capitals, were in a similar spot the past couple of seasons and executed a controlled sell-off, parting with second-tier players like Anthony Mantha, Erik Gustafsson and Marcus Johansson.
However, rather than throw in the towel on a complete teardown and rebuild, Caps Sr. VP & GM Chris Patrick (Craig’s cousin) executed a rather remarkable and aggressive retool on the fly this past summer, adding Jakob Chychrun, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Matt Roy, Brandon Duhaime and goalie Logan Thompson.
The result?
In a stunning turnaround, the Caps are once again perched atop the Metro and have the second-most points (56) in the NHL.
It certainly didn’t hurt their cause to receive nearly $13 million in cap relief due to the long-term injuries to former mainstays Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie. However, there’s an under-the-radar component to the Caps’ sudden rise…young, home-grown talent.
Indeed, two of the Caps’ leading scorers, Aliaksei Protas (91st overall, ’19) and Connor McMichael (25th overall, ’19) were gleaned through the draft and developed from within. The duo has combined for 35 goals this season while helping to provide much-needed firepower and balance.
Could the Pens follow in the Caps skate tracks?
Probably not.
For starters, we don’t have anyone on LTIR that could provide the type of cap relief afforded the Caps. Nor do we have anyone at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton who’s ready to step in and provide the type of production the Caps have received from Protas and McMichael.
That’s not to say we’re bereft of young talent. Forwards Tristan Broz, Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Vasily Ponomarev and second-round pick Tanner Howe may one day contribute in varying roles.
With Joel Blomqvist and Sergei Murashov, the Pens appear to be set in net for the future. Isaac Belliveau, Emil Pieniniemi and especially Harrison Brunicke may anchor the black-and-gold defense down the road along with incumbent Owen Pickering.
Unfortunately for our Pens, the future isn’t now. Which means we’ll remain marooned in the middle (or worse) for a while.
