It’s been a common theme recently on Penguins blogs and media sites. Especially in the wake of some unflattering comments uttered by POHO/GM Kyle Dubas in season-ending evaluations.
What should the team do with three-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson? Should we keep him or attempt to move him? Kind of the hockey version of the old Clash hit, Should I Stay or Should I Go.
With nothing else in particular to write about, I thought I’d toss in my two cents.
First, some framing. Following an incredible 101-point season with the Sharks he wasn’t likely to duplicate, Karlsson produced two decent if unspectacular seasons for the black and gold. The “Swedish Bobby Orr” followed an 11-goal, 56-point campaign in 2023-24 with 11 goals and 53 points this season.
Output-wise, it doesn’t get any more consistent.
EK65’s even strength versus power-play numbers were virtually identical as well. His advanced stats dipped a little, but overall were still good.
Given his lack of defensive acumen, I was surprised to learn Karlsson actually blocks a fair amount of shots (99 in ’23-24 and 94 this season, fourth-most on the team). So there does seem to be at least some intent to place himself in harm’s way.
Two other numbers really jumped out at me. Karlsson’s plus/minus took a precipitous tumble, from a respectable plus-4 to a ghastly minus-24. He wasn’t alone—virtually all of the Pens’ marquee players, including Sidney Crosby, were in the same unappealing range.
The other stat that made my eyes pop?
Giveaways.
Karlsson committed 140 of ‘em, second-most in the NHL and far and away the most in his career. A two-fold jump from the prior season.
Whether he was pressing to generate offense for a mediocre team or missing the steadying presence of erstwhile and traded partner Marcus Pettersson (or a combination of factors) is hard to say. One thing is clear, his puck management was poor.
Personally, I find Karlsson to be an incredibly polarizing player. There’s no denying his skill set. When he has the puck on his stick blade down low in the opposing team’s zone, he can be devastating. Talk about a sniper! He picks goalies clean with almost surgical precision.
Yet there’s his play, and I’ll use that term loosely, at the other end of the ice. In a recent article, Pensburgh displayed the mercurial defender’s WAR chart, which summed up his game in bold hues of blue and red.
Even-strength offense 99 percent, even-strength defense 0 percent.
Zero percent!
Even much-maligned former Pen Jack Johnson has a better rating than that.
My beef, and the reason I’d like to move him if at all possible, is his abject lack of effort at times on defense. In all my years of watching hockey, I’ve never seen anyone quit on plays more than Karlsson. No matter how much his teammates may like him personally, privately this can’t sit well. Especially with a blood-‘n’-guts battler like Alex Nedeljkovic.
Nor is Karlsson the type of player I want setting an example for the crop of kids who’ll be joining the team in the near future. Especially young defensemen Harrison Brunicke and Owen Pickering.
The million-dollar (make that $10 million) question is, can Dubas find a suitor (and would Karlsson be willing to waive his No Movement Clause)? It took some creative financing, not to mention masterful wheeling and dealing, to bring EK65 here in the first place. It’ll require the same, and likely some retained coin, to find him a new home.
There is a glimmer of hope. Karlsson was brilliant for his native Sweden during the 4 Nations Face-Off. Dominant on offense, back and remarkably in position on defense. He can do it. It would simply seem to be a matter of motivation.
Perhaps he could find that level of inspiration with his original team, the up-and-coming Senators. Or the Red Wings, loaded with his countrymen. Or the newly christened Mammoth, apparently poised to take a big swing this summer.
He just isn’t likely to find it here.
Rick
As a dedicated fan, I believe the coaching change provides a real opportunity to utilize a player of Erik Karlsson’s caliber more effectively. This past season, the Penguins ranked in the middle of the league in goal scoring. With the evident decline of veterans like Malkin and Letang, it would be a significant misstep “IMO” for Kyle Dubas to consider moving on from Karlsson. Offensively gifted defensemen of his kind are rare, and maintaining scoring threats is crucial to staying competitive, and keeping Sid the Kid happy. The Penguins can’t afford to follow the path of teams like the Pirates, who consistently struggle to generate offense, and are extremely painful to watch. Also, looking at the Draft opportunities that GM Dubis will be faced with he could package EK65 to impove the Pen’s drafting position either this year or in 2026. Rick, don’t get me wrong if Dubas recieves an off that just blows him away I have no problem moving on from Karlsson.
Hey Mike,
I hear ya. There’s no question Karlsson’s an elite talent. And when he’s firing on all cylinders, like he did for a 17-game stretch from the end of January though mid-March when he scored six goals and 17 points, he can be a huge difference maker. But then you have those stretches (sometimes prolonged) where he just underwhelms.
I can’t speak to what type of effect Mike Sullivan’s “philosophy” had on the defense, or Karlsson in particular. Some guys seemed to thrive under Sully (Grzelcyk) while others like Graves just shriveled on the vine. Karlsson seemed to be somewhere between the two extremes.
As I wrote, the biggest reason I want Erik gone is the inconsistent effort and giving up on plays. I just don’t want that kind of example being set for our kids. Give me a guy who’s less talented but busts his tail every shift over an elite talent who’s prone to floating.
(A certain fellow named Mario excluded of course…lol.)
Rick
Rick
I don’t necessarily disagree with the concerns about Karlsson’s defensive demeanor or the stretches where it looked like he wasn’t giving full effort. But to my eye, over the last two seasons—especially when the team was basically out of playoff contention—he actually played some of his best hockey at both ends of the ice.
Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball, but in both situations, it felt like Sullivan removed the restrictions and let Karlsson freelance a bit more. When that happened, he became noticeably more engaged and, frankly, more tolerable defensively.
Is he ever going to be a lockdown defender? No. But I agree with The Other Rick—if you pair him with a legitimate stay-at-home left-shot defenseman, I think he can be more than serviceable.
I also believe Sullivan’s system, which expects all six defensemen to pinch regularly, is a fundamental flaw. In my opinion, that approach was setting his team up for failure.
Rick, In sports, I’ve always believed that when trading a player, it’s critical to ensure the team can replace the specific strengths that player brought to the lineup. In Erik Karlsson’s case, the Penguins currently don’t have anyone who can step into the role of an offensive defenseman—at least not for the next couple of seasons.
Hey Mike,
Excellent points and very well expressed.
The wild card in all of this as you suggested is Sullivan’s “philosophy.” I think it’s predicated on having a team where everyone can skate or at least play fast.
The problem is, if you have a slower team like we did the past few seasons, then forwards aren’t as likely to get back and help out defensively. And if you’re encouraging your defensemen to pinch? Then it’s chaos in your own end, which frankly is what we saw.
Kind of like a short-sheeted bed. If you cover one end, the other’s exposed, and vice versa.
Again, I’ll be curious to see what type of structure our next coach brings.
Rick
PS–I’ll be extremely curious to see what the Rangers look like defensively under Sully. Will they relentlessly pinch and turn into a mistake-prone, odd-man-break-o-rama like our Pens?
Rick
Hey Mike,
I was never in favor of trading for EK but now that the team has him, I agree that throwing him away would be a mistake, perhaps colossal mistake. The team gave up way too much to get him here and then Sullivan completely misused him. Most of EKs negatives are a direct result from the stupidity of the team’s “system” if you can call it that.
The first and foremost thing for the team to do is find very good defensive LHD to pair with both EK and KL and make sure those D-men know what their role is and not have them jumping up into the play, leaving no-one to play defense.
If the new coach continues telling defensemen with the lack of offensive acumen like Pettersson was or Graves, POJ, or Pickering to jump up into the play, then of course EK and KL will continue to struggle. Defensemen that can’t shoot should not be given free rein to jump into the attack zone.
Hey Other Rick,
Excellent point in prioritizing a couple of competent left defensemen. If we’re fortunate enough to land a couple, then maybe they’ll help level out the inconsistencies in Karlsson (and Letang’s) play and make them a bit more palatable.
I’ll be real curious to see what our next coach’s defensive philosophy will look like. Hopefully an improvement over Sully’s.
Rick