The Penguins Plan to Contend, Not Collapse

Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

If you’re a Penguins fan dreaming of the team selling everything but the kitchen sink and tanking to the bottom of the league in hopes of winning the lottery—I’m afraid you’re going to be disappointed.

Kyle Dubas doesn’t believe in “planning a tank,” and frankly, I agree with him. Not only is it bad for the league to have teams icing non-competitive, joyless dumpster fires just to chase a lottery ball, but even when teams do tank—it often doesn’t work. There are no guarantees.

Plenty of teams have gone all-in on losing and ended up with little to show for it. Just look at the Sharks, Blackhawks, Sabres, Red Wings, and Blue Jackets. They’ve been showered with high-end picks for over a decade, yet most of them are still stuck in mediocrity—or worse. Sure, the Red Wings and Columbus are at least sniffing a Wild Card spot now, but that’s about it.

I actually like the method Kyle Dubas is taking: build quantity with as much scouting quality as possible. Stock the shelves with prospects, take calculated swings, and see who sticks. It’s a strategy that gives you flexibility—if the rebuild needs time, you’ve got options developing. But if progress happens quicker than expected, you’ve also got assets you can afford to move to support a competitive squad. It’s a smarter, more modern approach than going full scorched earth just to pray for ping-pong balls.

The only kind of “tank” that could happen in Pittsburgh is the natural kind—where the roster just underperforms and sinks in the standings. But honestly, I don’t see that happening. In fact, I think Dubas gets this team back into the playoffs this year.

A big reason? Mike Sullivan is gone. A fresh system and a new coaching philosophy could go a long way. Add in the injection of youth, an elite Sidney Crosby still playing at a ridiculous level, Malkin still very capable as a top-six center, and the real possibility of a bounce-back year from Erik Karlsson—and there’s a solid foundation already. And if the addition of Connor Clifton didn’t signal that the Penguins aren’t planning to tank, I don’t know what will. He fits the identity Dubas is building.

Another reason I don’t see a tank coming? I think a few teams are going to bite on Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust—and might even overpay. There’s always a market for proven veterans, especially a player like Bryan Rust with a winning pedigree. I believe Dubas will be able to flip one or both of them for younger NHL-ready players—guys with upside who just need a new opportunity.

This is where smart scouting comes into play. You trust your pro scouts to identify undervalued or underused talent. It’s the same playbook Vegas used with William Karlsson and Florida used with Carter Verhaeghe. Not household names when they were acquired, but turned into key contributors. That’s the kind of value I believe Dubas is quietly hunting for—and if it hits, the Penguins stay competitive while getting younger. Easier said than done, but most certainly can be.

Now, I’m not going to sit here and rattle off a bunch of fantasy trades involving Rust or Rakell—because let’s be honest, the possibilities are endless and most of it turns into speculation for the sake of speculation. That said, a few teams do come to mind. The Oilers, Kings, Islanders, Blue Jackets, and Sabres all stand out as clubs that are either overloaded with younger players or desperate for veteran scoring depth. Some are clawing their way back into playoff contention, and others—like the Oilers—are still trying to find that one extra top-six forward to finally push them over the edge. Those are the kinds of teams that make perfect sense as trade partners if Dubas wants to move a vet and get younger while staying competitive.

And that’s not even touching on goaltending. I genuinely believe either Joel Blomqvist or Sergei Murashov will make the Penguins’ roster next season—especially if the team moves on from Alex Nedeljkovic, which seems likely. I’ll probably dive deeper into this in a future article, but I truly believe Murashov has franchise goalie potential. His ceiling, in my opinion, is right up there with guys like Shesterkin or Vasilevskiy. That said, goalies are notoriously hard to predict, and development curves can be all over the place.

Even putting Murashov aside, Blomqvist has also shown real promise. One of them could push Jarry for starts—or at the very least, be good enough to split the net. Either way, there’s more talent in the pipeline coming up to the roster, and coming up hungry. 

This isn’t a team full of rookies and raw prospects like what we’re seeing in San Jose. And to be fair to the Sharks, their young players are actually putting up decent numbers. The key difference in Pittsburgh is that the Penguins still have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang—all playing at a high level. That core alone raises the floor of this team, no matter what.

And I don’t think Dubas is finished. Once he finds trade partners for Rakell and Rust—which I fully expect—he’ll likely turn his attention to the blue line. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more players like Connor Clifton brought in: tougher, more responsible, and more physical. This team is heading toward a retooled identity—young, hungry, but anchored by an elite veteran core. That’s not the formula of a tanking team, and I don’t believe for a second that’s Dubas’s plan.

So if you’re a Penguins fan dreaming of finishing dead last for a shot at Gavin McKenna—sorry, but it’s not happening unless a miracle drops from the hockey gods.

Most likely? When you factor in a new coach, a fresh system, youthful energy, better goaltending, and a more rugged defense corps, I think it’ll be just enough to snag a Wild Card spot. Are they going to make a serious Cup run? Probably not. A first-round exit is the more realistic expectation. But a top-five pick? A lottery tank? That’s not on the table—and never was.