On Friday, I detailed what I thought our forward lines would look like if we entered the upcoming season with our current roster. Today, I’ll do the same with our defensemen and goalies.
Hoo boy, what fun.
Before I begin in earnest, I need to state my belief that Penguins POHO/GM Kyle Dubas will make every effort to deal mercurial defenseman Erik Karlsson before the summer expires. His acquisitions of veteran right-shot defensemen Connor Clifton and Matt Dumba, to say nothing of the rapid emergence of 2024 second-rounder Harrison Brunicke, virtually demand it.
Same with the recent and surprise addition of goalie Arturs Silovs, which intentionally or otherwise created a logjam in goal. Perhaps a harbinger of a deal involving Tristan Jarry?
Since I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t make predications with any certainty, we’ll go with the status quo.
DEFENSE
First Pairing: Alexander Alexeyev/Parker Wotherspoon (ld), Erik Karlsson (rd)
What Buker? Have you lost your mind? Alexeyev and/or Wotherspoon on the top pairing?
Hear me out. Karlsson’s partner for a large portion of his massive, 101-point season was Jaycob Megna. The journeyman defender performed the essential, meat and potatoes, no frills chores, freeing EK65 to wheel-and-deal. Alexeyev/Wotherspoon could conceivably provide the same basics.
As for Karlsson? The ultimate enigma wrapped in a riddle, to borrow from the movie JFK, can be truly confounding at times, not to mention a deep source of frustration with his laissez-faire approach to defense. However, he can still get ‘er done offensively. Even at age 35, the three-time Norris winner remains a marvelous skater who can move the puck in ways most d-men only dream of. When he ventures into the prime scoring areas (the circles and below), something that occurred all-too-infrequently under Mike Sullivan, he can pick goalies apart with the precision of a sniper. If only he seemed to care more.
Second Pairing: Owen Pickering (ld), Kris Letang (rd)
As the old saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Up-and-comer Pickering did a decent job while slotted next to Letang last season. While he may have been a reach as a first-round pick, he’s shown signs of developing into a solid, mobile defenseman.
As for Tanger? Sadly, there’s been a noticeable drop-off in his skating and overall play. It’s as if all those hard miles logged while averaging a warrior-like 24 minutes a game over the course of a 19-season NHL career, to say nothing of the strokes, suddenly climbed onto his back like the proverbial 800-pound gorilla and threatened to take him down. Indeed, No. 58 appeared more vulnerable and mistake-prone than ever. With his size, range and reach, hopefully Pickering can cover for Tanger. If not…
Third Pairing: Ryan Graves (ld), Connor Clifton/Matt Dumba (rd)
I think the Pens’ new coaching staff will do everything in their power to salvage something of Graves, whose game has splintered into fragments since he got here. I think Clifton will get the first crack as Graves’ partner, although he and Dumba are pretty much interchangeable. Both play with an edge, which we so desperately need.
If Graves simply can’t be resurrected, any one of Alexeyev, Wotherspoon or Ryan Shea, who the Pens seem to like, could plug the gap. Or perhaps Clifton or Dumba slide to their off-side.
If Karlsson is dealt? It isn’t beyond the realm of possibility for Brunicke, only 19, to make the team thanks to his puck-moving skills, all-around game and burgeoning potential.
GOAL
Starter: Tristan Jarry
For now it appears Jarry, enigmatic and erratic, will return as our starting netminder, despite a yo-yo season that saw him demoted twice and waived. However, the former Memorial Cup winner appeared to iron out the kinks following his March return while finishing with a winning record (16-12-6)—the only Pens goalie to do so.
Still, the only predictable thing about the Surrey, BC, native? His unpredictability.
Backup: Arturs Silovs, Joel Blomqvist
The surprise acquisition of Silovs certainly threw a wrench into the Pens’ goaltending pecking order, which appeared fairly set after trading erstwhile backup Alex Nedeljkovic. The rangy Latvian has blown hot-and-cold during his brief NHL career. However, he backstopped AHL Abbotsford to the Calder Cup this spring while garnering postseason MVP honors.
My guess? He was acquired to provide some competition for Blomqvist while serving as an insurance policy in case Joel isn’t ready for full-time NHL duty. Count me among those who feel our former second-round pick was a bit shaky in his initial NHL go-round. Understandable in a way, given the alleged defense that was played in front of him.
Depth: Sergei Murashov, Filip Larsson and Taylor Gauthier
Lots of folks, including yours truly, think Murashov’s our goalie of the future. The athletic young Russian does one thing especially well. Win. During his first season in North America, Sergei compiled a record of 29-10-1 while splitting time with the Baby Pens and Nailers. Embedded in those 29 triumphs? A record-tying, 11-game winning streak with the former and a record-setting, 13 game-skein with the latter.
Larsson and Gauthier, the ECHL’s Goaltender of the Year in ’23-24, provide solid and, dare I say, enviable organization depth at a crucial position.
Rick
All I can say is WOW—I have no idea what direction the Penguins are taking with this defensive group. If Dubas manages to pull off a Karlsson trade, things might start to make sense. But looking at the current defense with Karlsson still in the mix, it’s honestly a mess.
Rick, you’ve listed eight defensemen—and that doesn’t even include St. Ivany, Shea, or Brunicke. I’d assume Shea is penciled in as the seventh defenseman, though I get the feeling it was more Sullivan’s decision than Dubas’ to sign him to that one-year, $900K deal. At 28, Shea’s walking a fine line between NHL depth and becoming a career AHL guy.
Though I have concerns about the impact Karlsson’s exit may have on our offensive performance, it seems increasingly clear that his departure is imminent.
Hey Mike,
Excellent comments and observations, my friend. Especially the “it’s honestly a mess” part.
I’m not sure what Dubas’s end game is here. I think he’s probably hoping to unearth a couple of potential diamonds in the rough with Wotherspoon and Alexeyev. It sure would be great if it works out that way, but I’m not necessarily holding my breath.
It certainly seems to reinforce the notion that Dubas doesn’t know how to construct an effective defensive corps.
Keep the comments coming, my friend. Even I don’t always respond, they’re much appreciated. You’ve shared some especially good insights of late.
Rick
Rick,
Dubas’ like his predecessors do not keep council with me (so it doesn’t surprise me that the team has been sinking faster than the Titanic) Therefore, although I do have some level of hope that the team may start buoying back up, I still no not expect them to do anything I want or would suggest. Drafting Zonnon and Kettles (players I recommended they draft – if you recall) probably precludes them from following my advice for another 5 or 6 seasons. Having said that, understand the kiss of death I am about to drop on your musings.
I do agree with you, Alexeyev or Wotherspoon would make the most sense. Even outside your discussion of Megna, logic dictates the pairing of Karlsson with a Defenseman that can fill at least 1 of not more of Karlsson’s short-comings.
For me, giving Graves and Dumba does make sense. If they work out, great, they can be traded at the trade deadline. If they stink, then great, we get a top 10 pick.
Silovs on the other hand only makes sense if Dubas plans on tanking and he wants to spare the psyches of Blomqvist and Murashov from playing on a cellar dweller team; Silvos is NOT good. He is a larger, lumbering version of Jarry, over-reacting and taking himself out of position, chasing the play. Yes, he has made highlight reel saves, but that is only because he took himself out of position giving him the opportunity to make the spectacular save. If he had played his position properly, he would have simply shrugged another harmless shot away. He has been playing on a fairly strong Vancouver club.
Silovs did have a Cinderella AHL playoff run last season, but that season is the anomaly in an otherwise mundane, pedestrian career. The truth about that vaunted NHL playoff run that Silovs had a couple of seasons ago, when Demko and DeSmith were injured is that it was far from spectacular. In the ten games Silovs played, he only won five (50%). Silovs Sv% in those 10 games was 0.898%; meaning that he was the difference in those games in a bad way. He wasn’t being shelled, his SA/60 was in the middle of the pack 28.38% as was the number of HDSA/60 he faced (6.72). What makes thot number border on problematic for him as a Goalie is that Silovs was responsible for many of those HDSA himself, yielding 5.32 Rebound Attempts/60.
If you want to see spectacular goaltending, turn back the pages of our Penguins playoff heroics. at age 21 and 22 Matt Murray rang up 22 wins in 31 decisions, posted a 0.928 Sv% while facing (but only )slightly less SA/60 (27.21) but facing more HDSA/60 (7.61), mostly not of his own making (he only yielded 3.13 RA/60) – the HDSA Murray faced were from poor defense in front of him.