I was perusing the latest run of mock drafts, rumors and actual player transactions this morning, pretty much bereft of any fresh ideas.
Then…BOING…one suddenly popped in.
Who among our current prospect pool might actually be Penguins one day?
For the record, I’m looking for players who could potentially stick and make an impact to varying degrees, and not guys who might make a cameo here and there. Of course, there’s more than a wee bit of subjectivity involved.
Without further falderal, here goes.
Franchise Player: None
No surprise that we absolutely, positively lack a potential franchise player given our dearth of top picks since we nabbed Jordan Staal second overall back in 2006, not to mention our penchant for dealing the picks we did have.
A situation that could be remedied if POHO/GM Kyle Dubas (with big help from the hockey gods) somehow is able to position us to draft Gavin McKenna next year and/or Landon DuPont in 2027.
Risky business, indeed.
Bottom line? With few exceptions, you don’t win Stanley Cups without a superstar or two.
Top-Six Forwards: Ville Koivunen, Rutger McGroarty (maybe)
Koivunen shone during his rookie pro season with the Baby Pens and glowed during an eight-game, year-end cameo with the big boys. In particular, his hockey IQ and playmaking skills are top-notch. Best of all, he wasn’t the least bit daunted or awed by the step-up in competition.
McGroarty came on like the proverbial gang-busters at Wilkes and likewise impressed during a late-season recall with his surprisingly mature all-around game. However, it remains to be seen if he’s a true top-sixer or middle-sixer.
Middle-Six Forwards: Tristan Broz, Tanner Howe, Filip Hållander, Philip Tomasino, Avery Hayes, Mikhail Ilyin, Melvin Fernström, Atley Calvert
Back in 1998, 20th Century Studios released a romantic comedy, Hope Floats.
An apt description for our projected middle-sixers. While Broz feels like a lock (maybe Howe, too), the rest of the bunch are s-t-r-e-t-c-h choices to succeed. Hållander, Fernström and especially Ilyin are skilled but speed-challenged. How will that translate to the bigger, faster, better NHL?
With his high motor and scoring touch, Hayes has emerged as a dark horse. And perhaps Calvert, a junior hockey scoring ace who excels in the dirty areas.
I’ve included Tomasino in the mix…provided Dubas inks the pending RFA to a new deal.
Bottom-Six Forwards: Sam Poulin
With a brand-new coaching staff, perhaps perennial prospect Poulin finally gets an extended look. While he plays a solid all-around game, a lack of foot speed could keep Sam consigned to the bottom rung of the lineup.
Trade deadline acquisitions Chase Stillman and Max Graham could make the grade here. But the former Devils draftees feel more like guys who might max-out (pun intended) at a handful of games…if that.
First-Pairing Defense: None
Second-Pairing Defense: Harrison Brunicke, Owen Pickering
The dearth of legit defensive prospects is striking. On potential alone, Brunicke could emerge as a top-pairing defenseman one day. But as the old marching song goes, “It’s a Long Way to Tipperrary.”
Likewise, Pickering might (might) develop into a second-pairing defender.
No guarantees on either.
Third-Pairing Defense: Vladislav Kolyachonok, Jack St. Ivany, Emil Pieniniemi, Finn Harding
Kolyachonok and St. Ivany are fringe NHLers who could grow under a more development-minded coach. Pieniniemi and Harding had strong seasons in junior. The latter was particularly impressive, running up a team-best, plus-46 for a Brampton team that included Porter Martone and Luke Misa. Plus-39 the season before.
Goal: Sergei Murashov, Joel Blomqvist, Taylor Gauthier
Pretty much everyone agrees Murashov (pictured) is our goalie of the future.
Perhaps it’s unfair to judge Blomqvist solely on the basis of a rocky initial showing behind an ultra-porous defense, but he seemed a deer-in-the-headlights at times.
Pending RFA and silly-sider Gauthier may be a better option…provided Dubas re-signs him.
To sum up, while the prospect pool isn’t nearly as dry as it was thanks to Dubas’s (and Ron Hextall’s) recent work, there are still plenty of holes to fill. Especially at the top of the ladder.
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Atley Calvert is not under contract to the Pittsburgh Penguins. He is only under contract to the Wilkes Barre Penguins. Calvert has a long road ahead of him. He will first have to earn a contract with the big club. With every contract Dubas hands out to other players before camp, shrinks the number of contracts he will be able to hand out, shrinking Calvert's chances.
Good point, Other Rick.
Most of the kids I have projected to be middle-sixers are anything but sure bets.
Rick
Hey Rick,
When it comes to our Penguins’ Goalies, if/when the team has to decide which Goalie to keep, Blomqvist or Murashov, it probably will be Murashov. If they keep Murashov because they think he will attract more fans, I can understand that. However, if they keep him because they think he is the better Goalie, time will tell how I feel about that.
Both Goalies had stellar first regular seasons in WBS. Murashov last year and Blomqvist two years ago. And both Goalies failed in their first year in a North American playoff series. Two years ago, when Blomqvist was the kid trying to lead the Baby Penguins in the Playoffs, his Defense was abhorrent. In fact, the whole team was beat up and pushed around like they were playing the old Broadstreet Bullies It was hardly Blomqvists fault. This past season, Murashov was overwhelmed but NA playoff hockey; not only did he tank in the WBS playoffs, but he was also just as bad in the ECHL playoff game he played.
As for Blomqvist, in his defense, at the beginning of the season (2024-2025) when the Penguins’ team-defense was at its worst, he was the best of the 3 Goalies (Blomqvist, Ned, Jarry). When the coaching staff reluctantly started to try and reign in the freelancing defensemen that they themselves created, Blomqvist had already been sacrificed to the AHL.
I still think both kids will be great Goalies at some point in the NHL, particularly now that they are free from Sullivan and his hair brain system. Unlike the bulk of Penguins fans who can’t be happy with 2 good players, preferring to have to choose between one or the other, I will be happy with both or either.
These two Goalies are Apples and Oranges. They have diverging styles. Blomqvist is a more positionally sound Goalie while Murashov relies on his athleticism like Fleury. If I had my druthers, I would keep them both in Pgh for as long as I could. However, I know the stupidity of Penguins fans will hate that thought, jealously demanding one of them be traded every time one or the other isn’t perfect.
But to get back to my earlier statement, if Penguins’ management chooses Murashov because of a reaction, athletic Goalie, who takes himself out of the play through a lapse in positioning, giving that Goalie a chance to make a highlight reel save, then I get that. It could sell more tickets. However, for me, I prefer Goalies that make even the most difficult saves look mundane bby always being where they need to be – and Blomqvist looks like that is the type of Goalie into which he will blossom.
Interesting comparison of the two kids and their styles.
Being a goalie who relies on positioning and fundamentals, especially a young one, must have been a daunting task behind the Pens' chaotic team defense. You're almost forced to scramble for your life.
It almost looked like Blomqvist had a case of shell-shock at times, which you can certainly understand.
Rick
Looking back at the overall number 1 picks of the last 10 seasons,
2024 Celebrini
2023 Bedard
2022 Slafkovsky
2021 Power
2020 Lafreniere
2019 Jack Hughes
2018 Dahlin
2017 Nischier
2016 Matthews
2015 McDavid
You have to go all the way back to Matthews to find one that really was a “franchise” player. Yet every year the spin doctors hype up this player or that as the second coming. Even Matthews and McDavid are a far cry from Crosby and Malkin when you compare their primes.
I point this out for 3 reasons. First, it isn’t just that our Penguins have traded away the bulk of their first picks as much as there really hasn’t been a whole lot of that really upper echelon talent coming up lately.
Secondly, even if the team had top 10 picks, Sullivan has shown he is incapable of coaching kids. The only two players to really make an NHL impact under his watch were Rust and Guentzel and both of those players were really developed before he got here. Therefore, I suggest the lack of a franchise player is squarely on the system that has destroyed this team over the last 8 seasons.
Third, even though you have to go all the way back to Matthews to find topflight talent, every draft the scouts have anointed a supposed generational talent. In fact, in 2022, Shane Wright was the fair-haired next superstar, yet he didn’t even get drafted number one. So, even though I would love to be the team to draw the lucky card to draft both McKenna and Dupont, there is no guarantee they will make it let alone be stars.
Hey Other Rick,
Wow. When you look at the last eight No. 1 overall picks, especially in a list like this...what an eye-opener! Thanks for putting it together.
As you say, no truly legit franchise types since Matthews and McDavid. Maybe Celebrini and Bedard eventually join them, but at this early stage that's a big maybe.
I'll push back slightly on your contention that Rust and Guentzel developed before Mike Sullivan arrived. But I will agree that they were/are self-starters who were more or less good-to-go out of the box. Same with other kids who emerged under Sully such as John Marino and Marcus Pettersson.
I'll certainly agree that developing kids wasn't his strong suit...or his top priority.
Rick
Bryan Rust was 23 years old when Sullivan joined the Penguins Staff, had played at Notre Dame with 2 GP played in WBS after his final season in College was over, then another 45 games in WBS and 14 games in Pgh before Sullivan was named the WBS head coach. He learned how to play hockey and was rather developed before he met Sullivan.
Jake Guentzel learned how to play hockey from his father (a Coach himself) and probably should have started the season in Pgh but Sully sent to WBS to start the season where he showed he was well above that league.
Marcus Pettersson played 44 AHL games before coming to Pgh, earning himself 47 NHL games before Anaheim traded him to Pgh. He was developed before he got here.
John Marino, also a College product, came to Pgh a complete package and regressed under Sullivan's incompetence. His best season was his first year in Pgh, his 2nd year his 2nd best season in Pgh and his 3rd season his worst. (+17, +5, +1 respectively and 1.4 Pts/60, 0.7 Pts/60, and 0.9 pts/60).
Sorry Rick but Sullivan was, as I said, incompetent. He caused players to founder in their development.
Rick
I would like to see Dubas resign Tomasino who's only 25 years old making him a valuable asset in a system that needs youth injected into an aging core. IMO he's Still developing, and displays an untapped offensive upside to his game.
If Dubas can ink him for say 1.5mil to 2.0mil for 2 years I would be on board. I think it's a low risk, high reward situation.
Tomasino has good skating ability, offensive instincts and would probably be more suited as a 3rd line winger but
could also play a top six role if needed.
Hey Mike,
I'm with you on Tomasino. In particular, I like the way he skates and attacks the net when he gets the opportunity. To my eye, he has a knack for finding and exploiting the seams and open lanes and isn't shy about shooting the puck. He displays some skill and creativity, too.
I guess the knock on him is his all-around game and defensive work. Although he doesn't shy away from contact or puck battles, his size works against him in that regard.
Still, I think he could be a useful player, especially as we retool. It wouldn't shock me if Dubas lets him walk as an RFA to avoid potential arbitration, then tries to sign him on the cheap (as you suggest) as a free agent.
Rick