Welcome to part 3 of my series breaking down players the Penguins might be able to draft in the first round. If you haven’t read the previous parts, let me preface this by saying these are players who are presumably within the Penguins’ draft range, though obviously anything can happen on draft day.
And as I’ve mentioned in the previous articles, I don’t necessarily think all of these players are players Kyle Dubas and his scouting staff are specifically targeting.
That said, I do think Dubas and his scouting staff tend to value many of the same traits I look for in prospects, so I usually point out when a player feels like someone the Penguins may genuinely have interest in.
If you haven’t read the previous parts of this series yet, I’d recommend starting there first before jumping into this one.
Click on any of the following to read. They’re in order:
“The Penguins Could Make A Draft Steal in the 2026 NHL Draft”
“2026 NHL Draft: 1st Round Player Options Breakdown Part 1”
“2026 NHL Draft: 1st Round Player Options Breakdown Part 2”
I had some friends, and even a couple people DM me on Twitter/X, asking how I actually make my assessments. Whether it’s based off highlights, reading reports, things like that. So I figured it might be helpful or interesting to explain it here.
I actually avoid reading scouting reports until after the seasons are over because I don’t want other people’s opinions influencing my own evaluations. The only thing I really check during the season are draft boards, mostly just to see where players are being ranked.
And no, I don’t make my assessments off highlight clips. I don’t think you can get a very accurate feel for a player that way. Highlights can definitely give you a general impression of a player’s strengths, but the problem is you’re only seeing their best moments — not the flaws, mistakes, bad habits, or weaknesses. And honestly, that’s a huge part of what I’m looking for when evaluating players.
So I do it the old-school, tedious way: watching games. Thankfully, in the modern era I don’t need to fly all over the place the way real NHL scouts do. Most leagues are available through subscription services like FloHockey — and no, this isn’t supposed to be an ad, I’m just explaining how I’m able to watch so many games.
I can’t catch every single game, obviously, but I spend way more time doing this than I probably should. To me, it’s a hobby. I love hockey, and I genuinely love watching and projecting young talent.
But enough of that, let’s get into the players…
To me, this is a player where appearances can be a little deceiving, and he’s the perfect example of why you can’t evaluate prospects based solely on highlight reels. If you watch only the highlights, he looks outstanding: smooth skating, strong puckhandling, creative dekes, and a dangerous shot that produces some impressive goals. On the surface, he absolutely looks like a clear-cut first-round talent.
And to be fair, a lot of that skill is real. The production was strong too: 32 goals and 50 assists for 82 points in 63 games in the QMJHL. But there are definitely some issues with his game that I’ll get into shortly. Before that, though, let’s stick with the positives.
He’s a very high-end puckhandler, even if his style isn’t overly flashy. What stands out most is how well he identifies and utilizes open ice. He’s excellent at carrying the puck through zone entries because of his control and stickhandling ability, and once he gains the offensive zone, he consistently takes advantage of the space around him to create offense.
As a skater, I’d describe him as good, maybe even steadily improving, but nowhere near elite. His stride is solid and there’s some smoothness to his movement that stands out, but he doesn’t possess high-end speed or explosive acceleration. A lot of the fluidity people notice in his game is also helped by how comfortable and controlled he is handling the puck.
His shot is decent too. It falls into that category of “gets the job done” without being weak, but I also wouldn’t call it anything elite or particularly jaw-dropping. But with his stickhandling it makes his shot more lethal because of his ability to just know where to put it or how to position his stick. He’s definitely more threatening in alone on goalies because his stickhandling and deception make him difficult to read, and you can see goaltenders hesitate because they aren’t always sure what move or release is coming next. Against defenders, though, I don’t think he commands that same level of respect or fear — and that’s where some of the bigger concerns in his game begin to show up. But I will get more into that in a bit.
As a passer and playmaker, he’s definitely solid, but one of the bigger issues in his game is how often he forces offense that simply isn’t there. I’ve mentioned this tendency with a few other prospects in the previous articles, but with him it stands out even more.
There are too many moments where he tries to manufacture a high-skill play regardless of the situation, which leads to unnecessary turnovers and easy zone exits for the opposition. Yes, he can pull off some creative highlight-reel plays, some of those nifty through the legs passes, deceptive feeds, difficult setups — but I don’t think that style will consistently work against NHL-level structure and defensive pressure.
Defensively, I think he’s weak. I just don’t see the level of effort there that I’d want from a player. Too often he puts very little into defending, and while there are occasional moments where he gives more effort, it’s nowhere near consistent enough for my liking — or probably for most coaches either, for that matter.
He really doesn’t seem to prioritize defense at all. Most of the time, he looks entirely focused on the offensive side of the game. At times, he almost looks bored in his own zone, just waiting for the puck to break out so he can rush the other way. That’s a massive red flag for me personally, and something I really dislike seeing in prospects.
He’s also a player who pretty clearly avoids the physical side of the game whenever possible, and in the few situations where he does get involved physically, he tends to look weak or even a little hesitant. That’s another big negative for me. Even if you aren’t a naturally physical or big player, I still want to see battle level and willingness to compete physically. In my eyes, that’s a requirement at the NHL level, and at this stage I’m not sure that’s something you can just build into someone’s game later on.
That also ties back into why I don’t think defenders are overly worried about him. In fact, I know they aren’t, because you can actively see opposing defenses giving more attention to other players instead. That tells me coaching staffs know a lot of what he does can be neutralized with physical pressure, and that his shot alone isn’t dangerous enough to force defenders to overcommit to him.
Most teams seem far more concerned about preventing him from getting in alone or finding space in the slot, which, honestly, most structured defensive systems are designed to handle fairly well.
My biggest issue, and the main reason I don’t think the Penguins will take him, is the compete level. I just don’t see the same level of drive that I do with some of the other players I’ve written about. Honestly, I don’t even think the Penguins would take Shilov if he somehow fell into the second round.
There are definitely some bright spots in his game, but not enough for me personally to want to use a second-round pick on him, let alone a first. Too often it looks like he plays hard only when he feels like it, then slacks off until a coach gets on him, and then the effort level picks back up again. I’m just not a fan of players who need to be reminded to compete, even when the skill is clearly there. When I watch that kind of mentality, it honestly reminds me a little too much of Kasperi Kapanen.
Overall, he’s not a player I would personally go for. Yes, he’s an elite puckhandler, but I think he’s too timid overall. I don’t like the compete level, and outside of the puckhandling, I just don’t see enough other high-end traits for me to want to take a serious shot on him.
First thing that stood out to me about Cullen is his skating — really smooth, really fast. That alone gives him a big boost in terms of draft stock. Scouts tend to view that as a very translatable NHL attribute, because speed is something you can almost always use at the next level, even if a player doesn’t end up becoming a top-six guy or a star. That’s definitely the case here.
The second standout trait is his puckhandling. He’s an excellent puck mover, strong in zone exits and entries, and a capable playmaker. However, outside of that puck skill, most of his other tools grade more as “good” rather than truly high-end.
That’s kind of the interesting thing about Cullen — he started with a lot of noticeable weaknesses, but has steadily improved them at what, honestly, feels like an almost absurd rate.
Which, in my opinion, is the actual elite skill: that ability to be a learning sponge and apply changes quickly. It makes it hard to pin down where his ceiling actually is. He does have at least one or two natural high-end traits, but everything else he wasn’t particularly strong in early on — and he’s essentially just gone out and fixed them. Now it feels like only minor weaknesses remain.
I really like the mentality here. The improvements he’s made are exactly what’s pushing him up draft boards, potentially into that mid-to-late first-round range. I wouldn’t even be shocked if a team reached for him in the late teens.
Another area I really like the growth in is how he’s starting to look more like a dual-threat player. His shot continues to improve steadily. It’s not elite yet, and he’s not fully confident in it, but you can see that slowly starting to change over time.
I honestly don’t think I’ve seen many players like this before — if ever — at least not in terms of how quickly he seems to identify weaknesses and actively work to fix them.
He does have some physicality in his game, but not quite enough for my liking yet. He needs to engage more consistently. At times it looks like he’s trying to incorporate it because he knows it’s part of being a pro, but it doesn’t feel fully natural to him yet. That said, I do like that the effort is at least there. And I wouldn’t be shocked if, by the time he reaches the NHL, he’s significantly improved in that area, possibly even becoming genuinely effective physically.
Defensively, he’s fairly solid and willing. I wouldn’t call him inconsistent in that end of the ice, he generally does what’s required of him. It’s more that his engagement level shifts at times from “just doing the job” to being more actively involved and grinding. One thing I do like is how often he wins puck battles and competes for loose pucks along the boards. There’s real work ethic there, and it shows up even while the rest of his game is still rounding into form.
Overall, I honestly don’t know where to place this kid. He’s almost a project player, but at the same time he doesn’t really feel like a traditional project because he seems to actively fix his own issues at a rapid pace. You look at him and think: okay, he has a few minor weaknesses left and he’s already good at a lot of things, but then the question becomes, where does it stop with him?
When does the development curve level out? Because it feels like he just keeps improving everything he touches. All of this in a single year raises the question: does he just keep going until he becomes an elite player? That’s the real debate for me. It almost feels like a “yes,” but at the same time that feels like a pretty big feat.
The thing is, he keeps proving me wrong. Early in the year I didn’t think much of him, but by the end he swayed my opinion pretty heavily — just like he seems to have done with a lot of other people as well.
My honest opinion is that I wouldn’t be upset if the Penguins took a shot on him. Like I said, I have players I prefer over him, but I wouldn’t be disappointed if they ended up going in his direction.
This one is a bit controversial. Depending on who you ask or where you look, some view him as a strong candidate — a big 6’4, 216-pound forward with real elite upside. Others would argue the opposite and say he’s not worth more than a second-round pick. A lot of that debate comes from his production with the Niagara IceDogs, where he posted 41 goals and 46 assists for 87 points in 64 games during the 2024–25 season.
He followed that up with a somewhat stagnant year, actually seeing a drop in production to 30 goals and 28 assists for 58 points in 49 games. If you project that over a full 64-game season, that comes out to roughly 76 points — an 11-point decline. Not exactly what you want to see, especially for a player who many felt still needed growth in several areas of his game and was originally projected as a top ten player.
Which has obviously led to a mixed reaction. Some mock drafts have him sliding into the second round, while others still have him going in the top 10–15. Among scouts and analysts, it really feels like you either like him a lot or have serious doubts.
But let’s get into the player. I’ll say upfront that I’m actually more in the camp of liking Ryan Roobroeck. I still think he’s worth a first-round look. I wouldn’t reach on him in the teens, but at the Penguins’ draft position, I wouldn’t be upset with the pick, similar to how I feel about Cullen, but I’d prefer Roobroeck more so than Cullen.
So he’s a bit of a weaker skater in terms of top-end speed, but I think his stride itself is fine. He tends to glide a bit more than really drive with his legs, and I’m thinking that’s partly because he gets tired due to his size. That said, it also helps him slow the game down and make plays at his own pace, which he can afford to do because of how big he is.
It’s very difficult to get the puck off him, and I think that will likely translate to the NHL level as well. But at the same time, that strength can work against him, if he does lose the puck or the play turns the other way, he struggles to recover and get back into the play and defend.
What I really like, though, is his shot release. He snaps it off his stick extremely quickly, and it’s definitely the kind of release that’s hard for goalies to track. He can also get it off accurately from just about anywhere, in tight, on one-timers, from the point, you name it.
I think he has really good playmaking ability and is great at using his size to create space. He has strong timing when it comes to finding teammates or buying himself an extra second to make a play. He consistently finds ways to manufacture offense or turn a situation into a scoring chance, which is exactly what you want from a bigger forward. That big-man power forward game is something I’m always a bit biased toward.
If there’s a good way to describe him stylistically, he’s kind of what Anthony Mantha was supposed to be, but with more offensive upside in my opinion, mixed with elements of Mark Stone — especially in terms of not being the best skater but compensating through intelligence, positioning, and puck protection. As a prospect comparison, he also gives me strong vibes of Porter Martone.
I do have a problem with the stagnation in his game. He needed more consistent shifts where he’s actively pushing the play, and I noticed too many sequences where he’s more of a floater without really contributing. One shift he’s making something happen, and the next he’s puck-watching a bit like a deer in headlights. Not that he doesn’t look engaged, but more not sure what to do. I also didn’t see meaningful improvement in that area over the season, or much progression in his skating either.
Overall, I would still take a chance on him. I think the upside is too high to ignore, and part of that belief comes from the idea that his stagnation might be tied to still being in the OHL. Some players don’t fully break out until they move up a level, and I think for a big player like him, that might be exactly what’s needed. A new environment, new coaching staff, and a faster league could be what unlocks the next stage of his development and pushes him over the edge.
I do think the Penguins could be interested as well. I’ve seen Kyle Dubas and his scouting staff target similar profiles in the past, big forwards with offensive upside who sometimes slide due to skating concerns, which is a pretty common theme with larger players. It’s very much in the mold of how they drafted players like Will Horcoff or traded for Elmer Söderblom.
Now I’ve covered most of the players who either should be available or who the Penguins might realistically be interested in at their current draft position.
From here, I’ll probably start shifting into some late first-round options the Penguins could potentially trade into, as well as some strong second-round targets worth keeping an eye on.
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Hey Caleb.
I'm so impressed. Your reports are detailed but at the same time extremely readable. You have a wonderful flow to your writing. Brilliant stuff.
I especially appreciate that you shared how you form your opinions. Kind of doing it the old-fashioned way, with plenty of elbow grease (eyeball grease?) through which you to develop a truly intimate sense of a player's strengths and weaknesses. I definitely feel like I know the player after reading your reports. The ultimate compliment.
Rick