As hockey fans, we all know how important goaltending can be. Quality play between the pipes can steal wins that a team might not otherwise deserve. The opposite also holds true. Nothing drains the life from a club quicker than porous play in goal.
Fair to say we’ve experienced our fair share of both ends of the netminding spectrum in recent years.
What brought this on? I was reading an article on Pensburgh last week that stated the Penguins’ goaltending inputs have been good this season.
How good, I wondered?
Going strictly by the results and my own admittedly untrained eye, darn good I’d say. During our 14-3-3 run since Christmas, Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs have combined to post a .905 save percentage, the eighth-best mark in the league over that stretch.
During a string of eight starts beginning with a 5-1 victory over the ‘Canes on December 30 and culminating in the 3-2 win over the Canucks on January 25, Skinner was 7-1 to go with an extraordinary .934 save percentage (SV%) and a microscopic 1.63 goals against average (GAA).
The heater abruptly ended when Skinner, known for his streakiness, slipped during his last two starts to the tune of a .767 SV%.
While Big Stu fluxed, tandem-mate Silovs has quietly embarked on a run of his own, posting a .922 SV% and a 2.19 GAA during his past seven starts dating back through January 10.
Fine work any way you parse it.
Curious to see how they stack up against their netminding peers, I decided to check out MoneyPuck.com. The metrics I’m about to share include all game situations.
Since the MoneyPuck default stat is Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE for short), I decided to use that as my benchmark. Among the 91 goalies who’ve appeared in at least one NHL game this season, Skinner is ranked 23rd with 4.7 GSAE, which includes his work with the Oilers.
Oddly, especially given the negative press he’s received for his recent efforts, ex-Pen Tristan Jarry’s only one notch behind with 4.3 GSAE.
As for Silovs? To my surprise, he’s well down the list at No. 62 with a -3.0 GSAE. Two slots behind Arturs, prized prospect Sergei Murashov at -3.5 GSAE.
Since GSAE is an aggregate stat that can favor goalies with a heavy workload, I decided to look at GSAE per 60. In this metric, Skinner slipped to 32nd (two slots behind Jarry) with a GSAE/60 of .135. Silovs actually improved a bit over his aggregate ranking, moving up to 55th with a GSAE/60 of -.119. Murashov was 74th at -.747.
| GOALIE | GSAE | RNK | GSAE/60 | RNK |
| Skinner | 4.7 | 23 | .135 | 32 |
| Silovs | (3.0) | 62 | (.119) | 55 |
| Murashov | (3.5) | 64 | (.747) | 74 |
I then decided to look at two of the more time-honored stats, save percentage and goals against average.
Murashov leads the Pens’ pack with a GAA of 2.56 (versus an expected, or xGAA of 1.81). Tied for 20th best. Skinner is tied for 36th in GAA with three-time Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck at 2.79 (xGAA 2.92). Silovs sits in a tie for 49th with a 2.93 GAA (xGAA 2.81).
Save percentage? Murashov is tied for 40th at .897. Silovs is tied for 45th (.895). Skinner’s .890 is tied for 57th.
Again, that’s out of 91 goalies, league-wide.
I’ll close my evaluation with Wins Above Replacement, or WAR for short. Skinner (.79 WAR) comes in at 23rd, again one notch ahead of trade-mate Jarry. Silovs (62nd, -.51 WAR) and Murashov (64th, -.59 WAR) again are well down the list.
| GOALIE | GAA | RNK | SV% | RNK | WAR | RNK |
| Skinner | 2.79 | 36t | .890 | 57t | .79 | 23 |
| Silovs | 2.93 | 49t | .895 | 45t | (.51) | 62 |
| Murashov | 2.56 | 20t | .897 | 40t | (.59) | 64 |
To sum up, despite their recent upticks in performance, overall our goalies rank somewhere in the middle of the pack, or perhaps a notch below.
Although the same plethora of advanced stats don’t exist for AHL goalies, at least not to my knowledge, I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention how Murashov and Baby Pens tandem-mate Joel Blomqvist are faring.
Going by the boxcars, the answer is, quite well. The former is third in the AHL in GAA (2.07) and tied for second in SV% (a dazzling .926). Despite a bit of a rough patch over the past month, the latter is 10th in GAA (2.43) and tied for fifth in SV% (.916).
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Interestingly enough Rick,
If you take the number of HDSA, goalies faced in 60 minutes, since the Christmas break, when our Penguins went on their current winning streak, the number is 7.60
Silovs has faced 7.14 or about half a HDSA less than the Average HDSA/60.
Skinner has faced 5.81 or almost 2 HDSA less than the Average HDSA/60.
In terms of Rush attempts against/60 the League number 0.96/60
Silovs has faced 0.69
Skinner has faced 0.50
I was an outspoken critic of our Penguins former HC and his staff. They caused more problems for the team than they solved. However, outside of the team’s choice for which Goalies they employ, HC Dan Muse and his staff have turned a rag-tag bunch of cast-off defensemen and two aging one-time good to very good (maybe even one-time great) defensemen into a solid unit that is insulating two very substandard Goalies. The double esses are not facing anything like that which Sullivan and his henchmen subjected last season’s Goalies.
As good as the skaters are playing, this team should make the playoffs, but when crunch time hits and good teams start playing hard the esses will fail and limit this team to a one-and-done or at best, the skaters may steal them into the Divisional Finals.
Remember, “Stu” could not do much with a far more stacked set of skaters in Edm.
However, I still stand by what I wrote in October, if management (Dubas) gets a clue and brings up Blomqvist and Murashov, this team could skate its way to the Cup Finals.
Consider how many points Silovs and Jarry already P!5539 away; our Penguins could easily be challenging for the Presidents trophy, not riding in 2nd place in the Metro.
And before anyone responds about Dubas being trustworthy when it comes to talent, I will point out that Dubas traded for Matt Murray when Matt Murray was at his lowest ebb in Ottawa, but still collecting a big contract. Dubas also inked Jarry to a fat contract that was never earned. Dubas hasn’t a clue about Goalies.
Furthermore, neither Skinner nor Silovs rank 3rd in the organization in Goaltending talent. Taylor Gautier would be the 3rd best Goalie. He is being wasted in the ECHL dominating that league with a 1.81 GAA and a 0.937 Sv%. And he is just another testament to Dubas’ lack of Goaltending knowledge; Gauthier wasn’t offered a professional contract when his last contract ended. Instead, even though Gauthier has played well in both the ECHL and AHL (when given spot chances) Dubas chose to give contracts to other players. And now he wasting these Goalies against inferior talent, risking these prospects getting lazy and picking up bad habits because they are not being challenged.