How Will the Expansion Draft Affect the Penguins?

With the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft just around the corner, I thought I’d take a stab at deciphering the rules and determining who the Penguins might protect and expose.

Teams must submit their list of protected players to the league by 5 PM (ET) this coming Saturday. The league’s new entry—the Las Vegas Golden Knights—will then announce its selections on June 22.

The rules for the draft are fairly straightforward. The Pens may protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie.

We must protect players with a no-movement/trade clause in their contracts. That means superstars Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin are automatically on the Protection List. A fifth player—Marc-Andre Fleury—recently waived his no-movement clause, making him eligible for the draft.

The Golden Knights will then select one player from our unprotected list.

Within certain guidelines, the black and gold must expose at least four players who are under contract for 2017-18—a goalie, a defensemen and two forwards.

Pending free agents—both restricted (RFAs) and unrestricted (UFAs)—are eligible for the draft and therefore must be protected if the Pens don’t want to risk losing them. However, because their contracts expire on June 30, they technically aren’t under control for next season and don’t meet the contractual requirements set forth in the previous paragraph.

Unsigned draft choices and players in the first or second year of their initial pro contract are exempt. Thus, the following players don’t need to be protected.

First- or Second-Year Players Aston-Reese, Bengtsson, Blueger, DiPauli, Guentzel, Jarry, Maguire, Prow, Rowney, Sheary, Simon, Sprong, Taylor

As you can see, the Pens won’t need to protect budding stars Jake Guentzel and Conor Sheary, as well as top prospects Tristan Jarry and Daniel Sprong. That’s the good news.

The bad news? We’re likely to expose a number of quality players, including a key defenseman or two.

First, let’s assume the Pens will choose the option that allows them to protect the maximum amount of players—seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie. Under that scenario, here’s what their protected and unprotected lists could look like.

Protected Forwards: Crosby, Hornqvist, Kessel, Malkin, Rust, Sundqvist (RFA), S. Wilson Defensemen: Cole or Maatta, Dumoulin (RFA) or Schultz (RFA), Letang Goalie: Murray

Unprotected Forwards: Archibald (RFA), Bonino (UFA), Cullen (UFA), Dea (RFA), Hagelin, Kuhnhackl, Kunitz (UFA), Porter (UFA), Sestito (UFA), G. Wilson (UFA) Defensemen: Cole or Maatta, Corrado (RFA), Daley (UFA), Dumoulin (RFA) or Schultz (RFA), Erixon (RFA), Gaunce (UFA), Hainsey (UFA), Percy (RFA), Pouliot (RFA), Ruhwedel (UFA), Streit (UFA), Warsofsky (UFA) Goalie: Fleury

Unfortunately, the Pens are bound by the rules of the draft to expose at least one of their two young defensemen signed for next season, Ian Cole or Olli Maatta. If the Pens elect to expose one or the other, they’ll most likely choose between Brian Dumoulin and Justin Schultz for their third protected defenseman.

It’s also possible they could elect to leave Cole and Maatta unprotected, which would allow them to protect both Dumoulin and Schultz. Keep in mind, the latter pair are restricted free agents and due for hefty raises.

They may consider other moves as well, such as signing one of their pending UFA defenders if cap space permits and placing them on the unprotected list.

Among the forwards under contract, Carl Hagelin is a cinch to be left unprotected because of his salary ($4/yr) and mildly disappointing production. The second? Probably hard-working Tom Kuhnhackl, although the locals may opt to dangle Scott Wilson instead.

The Pens may also wish to protect Josh Archibald or Jean-Sebastien Dea…perhaps even gritty veteran Chris Kunitz…rather than Oskar Sundqvist. An unlikely move, given that free-agent centers Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen are almost certain to depart.

It’s possible the Pens could opt for the second option (protecting eight skaters and a goalie) in an attempt to protect three of their four young defensemen. However, that could potentially expose forwards such as Patric Hornqvist and Bryan Rust.

Of course, all would be rendered moot if Las Vegas selects Fleury as rumored. However, general manager Jim Rutherford may attempt to deal “Flower” before the draft.

In any event, with the Expansion Draft, Entry Draft and free agency looming, it figures to be a most interesting couple of weeks.

Stay tuned.