Round Two Preview: Will the Penguins’ Mastery Continue?

How do you like our chances?

The question’s been posed to me dozens of times over the past few days by friends and fellow hockey fans.

I tell ‘em the truth. I don’t know. Honestly, I don’t.

To me, the upcoming Penguins-Capitals series is too close to call. And, as much as I hate to write this being an ardent Pens fan, the outcome truly could go either way, especially with the Caps enjoying home-ice advantage.

Like so many others, including a number of our knowledgeable PenguinPoop readers, I’m deeply concerned with our play in the defensive zone. We experienced enough lapses during the Columbus series to…well…put it this way. Had we been a student in school, we’d have been held back a grade. That’s how bad we were at times.

They say looks can be deceiving. That was definitely the case against Columbus. Don’t let our glossy five-game conquest fool you. Scratch the surface, and there was trouble aplenty.

Among the 16 playoff teams, we ranked 15th in five-on-five shot attempts percentage (46.24), ahead of only the sluggo St. Louis Blues. All told, we yielded a staggering 286 even-strength shot attempts during the five-game set, an average of 54.8 per 60 minutes. While we blocked 80 of those attempts, it’s still far too many.

The only saving grace? Our five-on-five SAT% percentage jumped to 53.02 when we trailed in games, as opposed to 46.26 with the lead and a horrid 39.74 when the score was tied. Which means we turned it on when we needed to.

Incredibly, only one of our players—Phil Kessel—was on the ice for more even-strength shot attempts for than against. Everyone else, from superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to scoring sensation Jake Guentzel, was a minus.

Nick Bonino was minus-27. Rearguard Ron Hainsey, acquired for the express purpose of solidifying our defense, ranked 317th out of the 325 players who’ve appeared in the postseason at minus-32, according to NHL.com.

This isn’t meant as a poke at Ron. He’s on the ice with four other skaters, so it’s a team stat to a degree. Situational, too. But you get my drift. Our shot suppression against Columbus was dreadful.

As good as they were, the Blue Jackets lacked the finishers to take full advantage. Put it this way. If we give Washington the offensive zone time we afforded Columbus, guys like T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams will pick us apart, no matter how well goalie Marc-Andre Fleury plays. To say nothing of what Alex Ovechkin might do if he’s allowed to roam wild, free and unfettered for extended chunks of time.

By contrast, the Capitals five-on-five SAT% was a solid 50.98, impressive considering they played a fast young opponent in Toronto. And, unlike the Pens, their share of shots remained fairly constant through all circumstances. Which points to them playing a sounder 60-minute game.

Okay, enough with the shots. What about other factors, such as special teams?

Each team possesses a downright lethal power play. In fact, the Pens and Caps were tied for third-best in the league during the regular season at 23.1 percent. Against Columbus, the Pens converted five of 15 opportunities—an incendiary 33.3 percent clip. The Caps rank right behind us at 29.4 percent.

Likewise, the clubs are evenly matched shorthanded. During the first round, each registered a highly respectable 83.3 percent kill rate.

For all intents and purposes, special teams are a wash.

Some other stats to chew on. The Caps registered 241 hits against Toronto, far more than the Pens’ 137. An edge to Washington in physical play. However, the Pens performed remarkably well in the faceoff circle against Columbus, winning 52.5 percent of their draws. By contrast, the Caps tasted success on just 46 percent of their faceoffs against the Leafs.

In the giveaway-takeaway department, the Pens hold a huge advantage. Indeed, the locals were a plus-7 in turnovers (35-28) during the opening round, while Washington was a miserable minus-28 (62-90).

With our quick-strike ability, a considerable chink in the Caps’ armor the Pens may be able to exploit.

Now for the intangible, gut-level stuff.

Washington is a better team than the one the Pens vanquished last spring…far better. Coach Barry Trotz has four strong lines at his disposal. Heck, heavyweight Tom Wilson’s scored three goals thus far in the postseason. Trade-deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk added a missing offensive element to the defense. Braden Holtby is a proven goalie.

The Caps sure don’t lack for motivation. With free agency looming for a number of key performers, it’s now or never. They’d love nothing more than to obliterate our Pens and wipe the smile from Crosby’s face, in the process removing the 800-pound gorilla of past playoff failures from their backs.

And our Pens? Fixing the transition game is a must. If we can avoid the defensive breakdowns that caused us to languish in our zone, we certainly possess the firepower to make life miserable for Holtby. Better starts wouldn’t hurt, either.

I sense the Caps’ defense is vulnerable, especially with veteran Karl Alzner on the shelf and Nate Schmidt nursing an injury. In particular, Shattenkirk and Ex-Pen Brooks Orpik (minus-4 each) are shaky. And there’s always a chance Brooksie (and the aforementioned Wilson) will take an undisciplined penalty at an inopportune time.

Although improved, Washington’s bottom-six forwards struggled to keep pace with the Leafs. Look for them to have similar issues against the speedy Pens.

Funny, but writing this preview removed some of the cobwebs from my crystal ball. I see more clearly now.

Penguins in seven.