Are the Penguins Playoff Bound?

I’ve been chewing over this one for the past week or so. And while it may seem odd to broach the subject on the heels of stirring back-to-back triumphs over Colorado and the Islanders, there’s no time like the present. So I’ll pose the question and try to answer it at the same time.

Are the Penguins playoff bound?

Man, that’s a tough one. To say we’re a gifted but flawed team is the understatement of the century. In my mind, we’re kind of like Olde Frothingslosh, a specialty (perhaps novelty’s a better word) quaff brewed by Pittsburgh Brewing Company and described as “the pale, stale ale with the foam on the bottom.”

Well, just like Olde Frothingslosh, it’s the bottom of the locals’ lineup that concerns me.

In many ways, the Pens have mimicked the Tampa Bay Lightning from the early 2000s. After winning the Stanley Cup in 2004, the Lightning invested heavily in core stars Dan Boyle, Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis and franchise icon Vincent Lecavalier…at the expense of the rest of their lineup.

Following two seasons of early playoff exits, the Bolts fell on hard times and missed the postseason in 2007-08, ushering in a dry spell that included a string of five non-playoff years over a six-season span.

A look at the ’07-08 squad is revealing. Over half of the team’s 221 non-shootout goals were scored by Lecavalier, Richards, St. Louis and Vinny Prospal. Four guys. That’s because the rest of the team had fallen into disrepair.

Although incidental to the story, know who was an assistant coach on that team? Yup, Mike Sullivan.

Our present-day Pens are following an eerily similar path. Sixty-one of the team’s 95 goals have been scored by the ultra-elite group of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin. Throw in Kris Letang’s seven goals? Nearly 72 percent of our goals have come from our core guys.

Wow. Talk about separating the wheat from the chaff!

To gain some perspective, the same group of players (minus Guentzel) tallied 53 percent of our non-shootout goals in 2015-16. The following season? Fifty-one percent with Guentzel in the mix. Last season…61 percent.

That’s a helluva swing…excuse my French.

It points to an unhealthy deterioration of bottom-six production. Inevitable in a way, given the exodus of productive second-tier players like Nick Bonino, Chris Kunitz and Conor Sheary and the dearth of NHL-ready talent at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. A condition exacerbated to an extent by the understandable tendency to shed draft picks as part of a win-now philosophy.

You might say we’re a victim of our own success.

It isn’t that GM Jim Rutherford isn’t working hard to revive the mix. Some of his moves have worked out well—the recent Tanner Pearson for Carl Hagelin swap the most noteworthy. Not to knock ‘Hags’, but he couldn’t hit the green side of a red barn with his shot. Pearson looks like a real good player and he’s four years younger to boot.

Dominik Simon (13 points, 56.5 Corsi) has had his moments, too. But they’re technically top six-guys, not depth players.

So how about the supporting cast of forwards?

Although he’s showing signs of coming around, Derick Brassard’s been so-so at best. Certainly not the difference maker he was touted to be. I love Bryan Rust, but he’s got to do better than one goal in 27 games. The Pens need more out of Riley Sheahan, too. Ditto Zach Aston-Reese, who’s shown precious little physicality or scrap since being blown up by Washington’s Tom Wilson in the playoffs last spring.

Derek Grant? Good on draws, but too slow for my taste. Garrett Wilson? Love his attitude, along with his willingness to finish his checks and jam the net. But a fringe player at best.

Defense is another trouble spot, especially in the wake of Justin Schultz’s prolonged absence. Again, Rutherford made what looks like an astute move to upgrade the blue-line corps by acquiring 22-year-old Marcus Pettersson from Anaheim for black-and-gold washout Daniel Sprong. While the latter undeniably has pedigree and it’s admittedly early, I like the look of Pettersson. He’s active and mobile and possesses a long, educated stick. Covers a lot of ice, too.

At first blush, his presence seems to have solidified a defensive corps that had a ‘down-a-man’ feel to it. But again, it’s early.

Of course, goaltending is a whole other issue. Plain and simple, you don’t get very far without a go-to goalie. Backup Casey DeSmith’s done a more-than-admirable job of plugging the gap while Matt Murray convalesces from his latest injury. In a worst-case scenario, if Murray flames out, are Casey and sidekick Tristan Jarry enough to get us into the playoffs?

Probably.

Any further? Probably not.

I think that’s a fair assessment of our team’s chances as well. Will we make the playoffs? In the performance challenged Metropolitan Division…probably.

Will we go on an extended Cup run? Probably not. At least not as presently constructed.