Round Two Preview: Will the Penguins’ Mastery Continue?

I confess. I was pulling like mad for Columbus to win its first-round playoff series with Washington. Not that the Blue Jackets would’ve been a piece of cake. But we had our way with them this season and seemed to match up well.

I’m not nearly as comfortable playing the Capitals. Let me count the ways.

First, there’s a little thing called the law of averages. The longer a trend goes, the closer it comes to ending.

How long has the Penguins’ mastery of the Caps lasted? A looooooong time. Try seven-straight playoff series, dating all the way back to 1995. To put that in perspective, Bill Clinton was president, Eddie Johnston our coach. Jaromir Jagr was a budding 22-year-old superstar who’d just won his first of five scoring titles.

That long.

Second? This collection of Capitals appears to be a far different breed than the puffed-up postseason chokers of the past couple of years. Simply put, a team doesn’t rally from a 2-0 series deficit against a tough team like Columbus by being mentally soft.

I admit, the Caps surprised me this year. When they bled off quality skaters like Karl Alzner, Marcus Johansson, Nate Schmidt and Justin Williams over the summer, I thought they’d be a non-factor. Instead, they captured a third-straight Metropolitan Division crown.

Washington still has lots of great players. Niklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin are formidable, battle-tested talents, as is high-scoring defenseman John Carlson. There’s plenty of secondary scoring with the likes of Lars Eller, T. J. Oshie and thug-turned-player Tom Wilson. And coach Barry Trotz has gotten solid contributions from speedy Jakub Vrana and a mostly no-name cadre of kids. To top it off, this bunch seems more solid and determined than their Presidents’ Trophy predecessors.

The Caps played us tough this year, too, splitting four regular-season meetings. You know they’re motivated.

So are the Pens. Sidney Crosby’s obsessed with winning another Cup, to the tune of six goals and 13 points during the opening-round conquest of Philadelphia. Talk about making a statement. When hockey’s best player wants to win that badly, his teammates have no choice but to follow his lead.

Guys like Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Patric Hornqvist don’t need any coaxing, either. The Pens may be the most driven team in hockey. And no one can match us in terms of big-game experience. When it gets down to rug cuttin’ time, our boys are at their best when it matters the most. From superstars to foot soldiers like Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, someone always rises to the occasion.

Let’s hope the trend continues.

Styles Make Fights

The Pens and Caps play a similar game predicated on speed, sand and skill. Washington possesses more muscle and isn’t shy about flexing it, especially when Wilson and ex-Pen Brooks Orpik hit the ice. We’ll need to keep our collective heads up. Look for the ‘Big Rig’ Jamie Oleksiak and Wilson to clash at some point.

Both clubs boast a high-octane offense. The Pens ranked fourth in goals scored during the regular season, the Caps five notches behind. Likewise, both teams possess a potent power play and middle-of-pack penalty killing.

Defense appears to be the question mark. Kris Letang must improve his decision-making, especially in the d-zone. He needs to keep a lid on his temper, too.

The DC crew features a solid top three of Carlson, former Pen Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov, but there’s a significant drop-off after that. The fact that Orpik logs top-four minutes bodes well. We’ve exploited him to the tune of a minus-5 over the past two postseasons.

In goal, Matt Murray and former Vezina winner Braden Holtby finished disappointing regular seasons with virtually identical numbers. But Murray’s won two Cups. And we’ve solved Holtby in the past.

Advantage Pens.

If You Haven’t Got Your Health…

Since the blood-rivals are so evenly matched, injuries could be a huge deciding factor. The Caps are presently without the services of Andre Burakovsky, a slippery scorer and traditional black-and-gold thorn.

Sans Malkin and Carl Hagelin…two-thirds of their second line…the Pens are in decidedly worse shape. With a huge chunk of talent, leadership and playoff experience languishing in the whirlpool, the acquisition of Derick Brassard looms larger than ever.

Let’s hope ‘Geno’ and ‘Hags’ return, and soon. We’ll need all hands on deck to vanquish the Caps.

By the Numbers

As I’d mentioned, the foes split their four regular-season meetings. Accordingly, there isn’t much to separate the clubs, statistically speaking.

		Shots on Goal		Faceoffs		Hits
Date	Result	PIT	WSH	PIT	WSH	PIT	WSH
10/11/17	PIT 3-2	36	22	29	38	16	26
11/10/17	WSH 4-1	28	31	26	34	17	30
2/2/18	PIT 7-4	39	33	31	32	29	31
4/1/18	WSH 3-1	33	34	35	34	30	33
Total		136	120	121	138	92	120

 

		Shot Attempts		Power Play		Giveaways		Takeaways
Date	Result	PIT	WSH	PIT	WSH	PIT	WSH	PIT	WSH
10/11/17	PIT 3-2	57	54	3-6	0-4	5	13	6	5
11/10/17	WSH 4-1	59	56	0-4	2-6	13	19	7	12
2/2/18	PIT 7-4	64	54	3-4	0-3	10	4	9	7
4/1/18	WSH 3-1	59	57	0-5	0-5	12	7	6	4
Total		239	221	6-19	2-18	40	43	28	28

While the Caps controlled the faceoff circle, it didn’t put a significant drag on the Pens’ puck possession numbers. A hidden nugget? We held a decided edge in special-teams play.

Prediction

Mark Madden cautioned on the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the series is too close to call. I agree. My head says Washington…my heart says Pens. I’ll go with my heart.

Pens in seven.