The Penguins Go South, Literally and Figuratively

While most of the world must have rejoiced when Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early Spring, I could imagine that our favorite, frozen, flightless fowl were somewhat less than ecstatic. It would seem to me that our Antarctic avians would prefer colder temperatures. Perhaps that would account for the teams…how shall I put this…slow start to February; but then again maybe not, January went out like a lamb so why shouldn’t February start like one?

After such a heady December that included an 8 game winning streak that spilled over to January 4th, Mike Sullivan’s Penguins have reversed course; just 3 – 6 – 1 over the last 10 games. Perhaps it is apropos that the teams fortunes are going south as the team itself headed south to Florida to take on the Panthers. Unfortunately our locals’ fortunes are still traveling southward. Their 3 – 6 – 1 record has earned them the last playoff spot with Carolina Hurricanes knocking on the door looking to knock them out of contention.

That would be a strange twist of fate – getting knocked out of the playoffs and replaced by the team from which our GM Jim Rutherford came. Oh the irony!

So how did this team not so long removed from back-to-back Cups fall so hard? Who is to blame?

Is Ian Cole to blame? No, he is gone.

Is Ryan Reaves to blame? No, he is gone too.

How about Daniel Sprong? Nope, can’t blame him for poor defense or lack of scoring. In fact, Sullivan’s favorite whipping boy has 9 goals for Anaheim in 26 games; that is more than Tanner Pearson‘s 8 goals in 38 games, Dominik Simon‘s 7 goals in 46 games, Zach Aston-Reece’s 6 goals in 30 games, or Matt Cullen‘s 5 goals in 23 games. Furthermore his -5 really doesn’t seem to be all that bad in comparison to his teams -51 goal differential, particularly since the bulk of Anaheim‘s team has worse +/- stats.

Maybe this lackluster season is Jamie Oleksiak‘s fault? Oh that is right, he is gone too.

I have heard a lot of people try and blame the Penguins’ Goalies for the team’s ills. Hmm…
Well if you look at Goals against per game, Penguins’ opponents score 3.01 goals per game. Casey DeSmith has a GAA of 2.69 while Matt Murray’s GAA is 2.97 (2.26 since Dec). If you look at the Shooting Percentage (S%) of the opponents the Penguins have played, the Penguin’s goalies should have a Save Percentage (Sv%) of 0.903. DeSmith’s Sv% is 0.918 and for all those who hate Murray since he replaced Mar-Andre Fleury, he has a Sv% of 0.909 for the season (0.930 since Dec 1). Both goalies have GAA below and Sv% above what they should have based on the competition level.

Penguins’ goalies aren’t the problem.

Is the Penguins’ defense a problem? Maybe, Penguins’ opponents average 31.2 Shots Against per game SA/G while the team cedes 33 shots per game. I say maybe because 33 isn’t that much above 31.2 and those number do not reflect true scoring chances versus perimeter shots. Since I do not get the chance to review every single game and I am unaware of anyone keeping track of quantity of shot quality, I am not going to say definitively one way or the other. However, using the eye test on just the Penguins’ games, they do tend to give up tons of odd man breaks and let opponents sit in front of their Goalies.

How many times did Hurricanes hit Murray a couple of games ago, and get away with it?

Is it the Penguins’ offense? I hate to say it but again, maybe. The Penguins’ S% is 10.5, which is a good number but based on the Penguins’ level of competition, opponents’ Sv% would suggest that the team have a S% of 12.4. However, the Penguins do take more shots than opponents usually give up (32.5 vs 31.6). So, even though the team has Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Jake Guentzel, the Simon’s, Cullen’s, and other bottom 6 players are weighing down the teams scoring. Maybe Mr. Rutherford shouldn’t be so dismissive of the idea of getting some help for the bottom 6 or even other 2 of the top 6 before the trade deadline, as his recent comments seem to indicate.

That only leaves me to look at the Coaching staff.

Against the Hurricanes, as the Penguins’ offense was being swamped by their opponents system, Bob Errey noted early in the second period that Mike Sullivan was quick to make adjustments. No sooner did Errey make that comment, Sullivan began monkeying with the line combinations. Sorry, changing line combinations isn’t making adjustments. Making adjustments is having a plan B and changing fore-checking patterns and breakouts, not shuffling the deck and hoping for the best. Playing spin the bottle with personnel is something a passenger coach does not an active coach. Changing line combinations is hoping that one of the bus drivers (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, or Guentzel) has an answer for the hapless coach. Playing line roulette is not what a Jack Adams finalist does, it is what an also ran gambles when he is hoping someone can save his job for him.

Sorry Penguins’ fans but I am in agreement with our friend Dee, it is time to move on from Sullivan.

Outside of the new guys (Nick Bjugstad, Jared McCann, Teddy Blueger and Garrett Wilson) and just a couple of veteran types like Crosby and Guentzel pretty much the rest of the team reminds me of the lethargy that marked the final days of the Mike Johnston regime. I do not see much energy.

Hopefully when Malkin and Justin Schultz get back we will see more energy and wins. I certainly hope so.

Please, Go Penguins! Make me have to eat crow. Don’t go too much farther south. Right the ship and go on another protracted winning streak and prove me wrong!