“Mike Sullivan needs to change his approach. He keeps doing the same thing, but the rest of the league has adjusted to the way we play. If he doesn’t learn to adapt, they’re going to replace him.”
Those very sage words were spoken, out of the blue, by Wright’s Gym member Jim Hartley as he approached the front desk yesterday afternoon. Which struck a chord and planted a seed for this article.
First, a little backdrop. In 2015-16, our Penguins won a Stanley Cup due in no small part to their exceptional team speed. Maybe they weren’t the fastest team in the league, but they certainly played the fastest.
For the most part, our opponents were overwhelmed. Even a mobile, skilled team like Tampa Bay had trouble keeping up.
Other clubs were quick to follow our lead. Carolina and Toronto even upped the ante, playing at warp-drive speed. Ironically, we repeated the next season with a style that was more of a hybrid. With puck-moving defenseman Kris Letang sidelined, the Pens were consistently outshot throughout the postseason (a paltry 46.1 percent of 5v5 shot attempts).
Thanks to our exceptional skill (10.7 percent shooting percentage) and clutch goaltending, we rope-a-doped foes into submission. A style based in part on having guys in the lineup who were equipped to play a grinding game. Players like Ian Cole, Ron Hainsey, Tom Kuhnhackl, Carter Rowney and Scott Wilson.
A missing ingredient the past couple of postseasons. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
Following our back-to-back Cups, GM Jim Rutherford tried to introduce some muscle in hopes of making us better able to compete physically with other clubs. Over a two-year span he imported Ryan Reaves, Jamie Oleksiak and Erik Gudbranson. All were shown the door in relatively short order. Presumably because they didn’t blend with Sullivan’s up-tempo, puck-possession game. (As an aside, Reaves’s Corsi this season was 54.4…the same as Evgeni Malkin’s.)
So Rutherford relented, tailoring this year’s squad to his coach’s liking in hopes of recapturing the ’16 magic. GMJR loaded up on small, speedy types like Teddy Blueger, Dominik Kahun, Dominik Simon and Brandon Tanev and added Jason Zucker, Conor Sheary and Evan Rodrigues in-season. I mentioned in a previous article that they seemed to be stamped out of the same mold.
For a good part of the season the formula worked. Even when decimated by injuries, the Pens generally outskated, outworked and…surprisingly…outhit their opponents (fourth in the league with 1884). Someone (maybe Other Rick) remarked that we appeared to be competing with playoff intensity through the early going while the rest of the league was in regular-season mode.
I agree.
Then the wheels fell off the wagon during the dog days of January and February. Our 5v5 shot attempts percentage declined sharply, along with our compete level and attention to detail. Oddly, just when some big names were returning to the lineup. Culminating in the shocking loss to Montreal.
Among the team’s failings? An inability to possess the puck in the offensive zone…at least in the high-danger areas between the circles. It seemed our guys kept trying to go around rather than through the Canadiens.
It’s my contention they weren’t equipped to do so.
Just my humble opinion. But I think the Pens need to change their organizational philosophy. When cultivating young talent, they’ve consistently accented skill and speed over size and sand, especially over the past few years.
A one-size approach may fit all. But it doesn’t necessarily lead to success…or Stanley Cups. As they say, variety is the spice of life.
To draw an analogy, you wouldn’t stock a football team strictly with wide receivers. Without tackles and guards…guys to do the dirty work…you wouldn’t get very far.
The same holds true in hockey. For every Sidney Crosby you need a Max Talbot, for every Geno a Jordan Staal, for every Letang a Brooks Orpik.
Indeed, while speed teams have fallen by the wayside the pendulum has swung to clubs that embrace a more balanced approach. The past two Cup winners, Washington and St. Louis, prevailed in part by blending players with different attributes, with a healthy emphasis on physical play.
Current Cup hopeful Colorado likewise meshes supremely skilled players like Nathan MacKinnon with an array of battlers such as Nazem Kadri, Matt Calvert, Erik Johnson and Cole. Ditto Boston and Vegas.
The good news? Our front office may already be experiencing an awakening. Last year Rutherford drafted a pair of budding power forwards from the Quebec League, Samuel Poulin and Nathan Legare. This season he signed big-and-tall forwards Drew O’Connor and Radim Zahorna and sizeable d-man Will Reilly.
JR obviously feels a need to diversify.
Does Sullivan? Is he capable of altering his preferred style to include players who might not win a fastest skater competition, yet possess other attributes such as a willingness to battle and inhabit the prime scoring areas?
I don’t know. To my eye, he seems locked into coaching one way…one style. Kind of like former Pens skipper Dan Bylsma. Granted, a style that’s brought him…and the team…considerable success. But one that may not fit our personnel going forward.
If Sully isn’t able to adjust? As Jim so aptly noted, his days in the ‘Burgh may, indeed, be numbered.
The best playing of the season was when Sid was out. The rest of the Pens busted booty to make up for it and had a winning record through that period. When Sid is in, the Pens stratigy is “let Sid do it.” They like to figure skate out by the blue line. Once id gets the puck, the rest ofthem quit palying.
Hey Guys, ( Rick, Coach, 55,Mike, Stratton)
Great article Rick.
Stratton nailed it. Well said sir.
The CORE IS THE MAIN PROBLEM !! Second problem is Coach Sullivan.
The Core are 33 and 34 years old ! As such they are all prone to injuries.
It is nothing against them but just the facts.They are not what they used to be.
Teams have young 25 to 28 year old stars that can carry a team.Sidney Crosby should be a second line center at this stage of his career and not the go to guy every night. It does not matter what he used to do.
What matters is using Crosby and his current talent level to HELP win a cup or two before he retires. That is the issue. Where is the future ?
Letang should be gone. Period! Because he and Mario both come from Quebec that will never happen. Put friendship aside.
The cold hard facts…
1. You have a team whose CORE can not get the job done anymore.
The job is to get to the Semi Finals at the minimum.
2. They have no cap space to BUY the needed talent with out a major breakup.
3. They have NO ELITE talent in their Farm system.No future franchise d man, no future franchise goalie, no future franchise center,.
4. This team has a lot of Holes to fix before it can win a Cup.. and not just two or three pieces.Seven or eight !
5. We live in a different World now since Covid and many Banks are NOT Financing Sports Teams like they used to do and the Penguins can not afford to lose 20 or 30 million next year or Ron Burkle will walk.
So somebody better tell Sullivan and Rutherford, boys you both are on a very short leash. We have to get to the THIRD ROUND of the play offs. We may have to cut salaries like 75% of the rest of the league.
One last point Rick. One of my Hockey friends said the Pen’s have another issue. What if teams make serious bids for both Jarry and Murray ?
What happens then? Just asking the question?
Cheers
Jim
Hey Jim,
Gonna play Devils Advocate (Hope You don’t Mind);
Is the Core the Problem, or is it everyone’s expectations of the Core – and by everyone, the main people I am talking about is Sully and JR.
What you and I, and all the rest of the fans think is not all that important. Our expectations only serve for Blog Fodder. However, if Sully and JR still think that Malkin is the same Malkin that won the Conn Smythe in 2009-2010, or Crosby the the Crosby that won the Conn Smythe in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, then isn’t that the real problem?
Dan Kingarski had a good article discussing Questions that every Pens fan and Pens Management need to ask themselves and each other. One of the more interesting ones was Would we fans and/or management want to see Crosby, Malkin, and Letang retire as Penguins and the team fade like Detroit or win another Cup?
How tied is everyone here to these players?
Which one or ones stay?
Which one or ones do you trade?
Or do you think that this team can still be viable keeping all 3?
As for your query Jim, I am still comfortable with either goalie. Who I trade depends on who offers what for who.
An example if Edmonton would offer a deal that included Raphael Lavoie, I trade Murray. But if all they offer is Pulajarvi, sorry, no dice. If Toronto offers Kapanen for Jarry, I deal Jarry.
Actually, if Toronto wants to deal and they would prefer Jarry to Murray, like so many Penguins fans, I hold out for a multi-player deal, I would try and make a deal for both Kapanen and Kerfoot. I would package which ever Goalie they liked better with McCann and may even add other incentives.
As much as I would like to see what McCann could do back on Wing, Kapanen can be the Right Handed Shot I want and Kerfoot the 3rd line Center the team desperately needs.
Toronto gets their Goalie and a young forward who they could sign on the cheap.
Just thinking out loud.
Hello Jim,
Always good to hear from you, my friend.
Interesting question about our goalies. At the risk of rekindling the fire with Other Rick, I sign Jarry and try to deal Murray. Yes, he won us two Stanley Cups and looked impressive doing it, but he’s been a different goalie since.
His stats in 2017-18 and again this season ranked among the worst in the league. Except for a hot second half in 2018-19, his numbers would’ve been poor that season, too.
I guess it is a personal bias on my part, but I’m just not comfortable with Murray in goal. I’ve seen way too many pucks get past him at critical times over the past couple of seasons. Too many juicy rebounds (pizzas) served up.
I just don’t trust him.
Again, personal preference, but I think Jarry has more upside. To me he moves better, he’s more athletic, cooler under fire, and more able to make the big save. Plus, I think we can retain him at a cheaper rate.
Anyway…my two cents.
Rick
Hey Rick,
I am a Penguins fan first and foremost. As I wrote above, I’ll trade either Jarry or Murray if the return is right. If it takes Murray to secure a Right handed shot and a 3rd line center – I trade Murray, if it takes Jarry – I trade Jarry.
Just like several years back when the anti-Fleury group tried to deride Fleury and say he was over the hill, I never joined that chorus, I only said that it made sense to leave Fleury exposed in the draft because of the price and age.
I would have rather the world have been such that both could have stayed – just like now, I would rather keep both Murray and Jarry. However, if the team could retool and get pieces to support Crosby and Malkin for either goalie, I trade him.
However, I will join the “Fire Buckley” refrain. He is holding both goalies back. The coaching staff purge should have included him.
So, in the span of 15 games or so, Sullivan goes from being one of the best coaches in the league to an inflexible fool who should be fired. Makes perfect sense.
A team with tiny little players is leads the Metro in February but the same team loses three games to Montreal because they are tiny little players. Makes perfect sense.
Sorry, but there needs to be a more rational explanation. What changed in the last 15 games? How about the obvious. Fortunes changed when the core became healthy. Maybe the real explanation is that the core simply isn’t as good as it used to be and depending on them no longer produces results.
As an alternate, maybe Montreal wasn’t such a pushover after all. They are giving the Flyers fits. If Hart hadn’t stolen some games, the Flyers would be toast by now. Losing to the Islanders last year is also looking less and less like an embarrassment as they crush the opposition this year. Maybe, just maybe, other teams can be good, too. Just a thought.
Hey Stratton,
A few thoughts. Maybe Sullivan wasn’t good a coach as he looked early in the season or as bad as he looked down the stretch and in the qualifying round. I’m sure his message was the same. Somehow it just wasn’t getting through.
Which does lead you to ask. What changed? Yes, the core guys came back. And perhaps with it, an inclination not to listen to their coach as much. We know they’re a strong-willed bunch very set on doing their own thing. Perhaps that contributed to the breakdown. I don’t know.
Too, I don’t think the deadline deals (for Marleau and Sheary) helped matters any. I think they disrupted a chemistry that was already going south.
But my real concern is the supporting cast. They played so well early on and then basically just stopped contributing. McCann, goalless in his last 25 games (including playoffs). Tanev no goals in his last 20 games. ZAR, two in his last 36. Simon, none in his last dozen. Blueger, one in his last 15. Not to mention Sheary and Marleau (two goals combined after they arrived.)
While we’re at it, our ‘d’ wasn’t exactly piling up the goals, either.
We just have to get more from our supporting cast. Especially with our core aging.
Rick
PS–I hear ya about other teams. Most of them haven’t won a Cup in God knows how long. They’re hungry. Having won a couple in the not-too-distant past, it’s hard for us to match that hunger.
Rick
Quick comment – The Pen’s are a team built to do well in the regular season
but not a team to have success in the playoffs. I mentioned this before that
until JR forces Sullivan to blend grit/toughness in with our skilled players
we are destined for a 1st round exit come playoff time.
Hey Mike.
Good to hear from you as always.
It seemed to me that we had nobody who could go get the puck and possess it when we needed to. And so many of our shots seemed to come from the periphery…especially the half-wall. Honestly, one of the most useless places to shoot from. All a goalie has to do is hug the post.
They just couldn’t get the puck into the middle of the ice…at least not with any real intent.
It was tough to watch.
Rick
No arguments here Mike.
Hi Rick, and tOR,
Good article, as always!
I’m of a mind that Sullivan is incapable of changing. I hope I’m wrong, but he’s had ample time, and ample reason, to adapt necessary change. He’s failed to do so in the face of overwhelming evidence.
I can understand, as Other Rick says, taking time to find the right people, but letting the GM and coach know they’re on a “short leash” is, as I said in another post, is a bad idea. Either profess your faith in your team, or keep your mouth shut until it’s time to go.
As for size and grit, we’ve gnawed on that bone endlessly on this blog over the past several years, going back to the time before the last two cups. As Sid gets older, he needs a bonafide power forward on his wing, left or right, and one who can bang some bodies. He’s never had one. (Is Stevens kid as badass as his old man? We can only hope.) That’s how you beat a team that is faster than you, and almost everybody is now faster than we are. So, barring getting even faster than the fastest teams, which is unlikely, it’s time to finally bite the bullet and bring some badass into the mix. The team’s reluctance, or inability, to do so made it much too easy for the Habs to walk all over them is the most recent disaster on ice.
It’s time, finally, for the team to get serious about changes. The current core will need lots of help if there’s going to be another cup to hoist in the next few years.
— 55
Thanks 55,
Great to hear from you as always. Had to chuckle when you mentioned gnawing endlessly on the size-and-grit bone. We’ve been at it so long, I don’t think there’s any bone left to gnaw on…lol.
The more this team gets made in Sullivan’s image (a plethora of small, quick guys) the further away we get from the mix we need. The back-to-back Cup champs weren’t exactly the second coming of the Broad Street Bullies, but we had guys who could compete and play a grinding game…Chris Kunitz, Eric Fehr, Tom Kuhnhackl, Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Ron Hainsey to name a few.
Except for Patric Hornqvist and a couple of other guys, we just don’t seem to have that element any more. Or at least not enough of it.
Agree that our now aging core needs a lot of help. It feels a lot like 2014-15, as you previously noted. But now Sid, Geno and Letang are well into their 30s.
As an aside, I was looking over our Cup winners while writing a recent article and was struck by what a strong, deep team we were. During ’16 Cup run both Sid and Geno went extended stretches without scoring goals, but the rest of the team filled in the blanks…especially the HBK Line.
We have a long way to go to get back to that type of a supporting cast. And with the cap situation what it is…
Sorry to say, it ain’t looking too promising.
Rick
Hey 55,
I am no fence sitter. You do or you don’t. Sitting in the middle is as bad as making the wrong decision.
The scouting report on Luke Stevens from 2015 was “Stevens’ strength will always be his ability to win battles on the board, grind and kill penalties. He’s going to have to be a fourth line, physical-type player to make it at the next level. He has a scoring touch at times, but that’s not what he projects at the next level.” (SB Nation College Hockey) It doesn’t sound like he will skating with Sid.
Also at 6′-3″ or 6′-4″ (different sites list hgt differently) he will never get the chance until Sully is gone.
I would rather be proven wrong, but I see Sully just getting more and more conservative, fearing to lose rather than playing to win, that there will be no changes.
Hey Rick,
Great Article!
A couple more things to throw out there;
A player doesn’t have to be small and weak to have speed and skill. There are bigger players that can move at high speeds, pass, and shoot with deadly accuracy and still be bigger than 5′-9″ and still have an edge to their game. Unfortunately, the SOP seems to be only Davids and no Goliaths get a chance to don the Black – n -Gold. When give the choice, Sully seems to defer to the smaller guy not only when all other things are equal, but even unless the bigger guy is as head and shoulder in speed and skill as he is in height.
Also, speed is relative. When a player knows where the puck is going, he doesn’t have to be that fast – he just gets the step on his opponents. Sully’s breakouts and entries are predictable, opponents sit back and read them, break them up and either hem them in the defensive zone or block them out of the attacking zone.
Not only is Sully in a rut, so are players. Letang will way too often try blind passes and Geno will try and skate thru other players, often laterally. Sid will pass up open shots to make the pretty highlight film goal. Only Hornqvist crashes the net with any regularity but that doesn’t do much good when nobody tries to throw the puck at the net for a charging forward to get to a rebound.
Part of grit and sand is simply making a decision to go to the net then charging forward to see it through.
Also Rick,
I can’t help but wonder if the only reason why Sully and JR are still here is that Mario and Burkle want to take their time and find the right replacements and not simply off them with no exit strategy. When I read the term “Allowed to keep Sullivan” that was the line that makes me think that way
Quit over interpreting. The article said that source was not on the call so he could not exactly what was said. It might be the sources interpretation r simply casual language.
In fact, it makes little sense. The Penguins financial situation is not going to have them fire Sullivan and then have to pay him big bucks for 4 years. Money may have been at the root of Martin’s firing. He was a senior guy and I assume making good money for an assistant coach.
As far as Rutherford is concerned, he won’t get fired because he has done a fairly good job. The Penguins roster looks good and the cap situation, despite the whining from Penguin twitterites, is relatively good compared to most other competitive teams and even some uncompetitive ones like Arizona.
Hey Other Rick,
Well said (written). Agree about Sullivan’s breakouts and entries. Also the tendencies of our stars. It adds up to a team that’s predictable and easy to read.
Speaking of easy, all too often we took the easy way into the Montreal zone during the qualifying round, especially in the pivotal Game 4. We dumped the puck in along the left wall and Price or his defensemen would retrieve it and dump it back out. The horseshoe offense.
Nobody tried the middle of the ice. Sometimes you have to bull your way in and bull your way through. We’re simply not built to do that save for Hornqvist. Very astute comment, by the way, about him busting his arse to get to the net and nobody getting the puck through to take advantage of it.
Somehow, we’ve got to do a better job of getting on pucks and winning puck battles, especially in the dirty areas. To me that means adding at least a modicum of size and aggression to balance out the waterbugs. It might compliment the smaller guys and make them more effective if you had a few bigger guys to do some of the heavy lifting and create some space.
Again, everybody can’t be the same player with the same attributes (unless they’re all Sidney Crosbys). You need some diversity.
Rick