Penguins Update: Where Do We Go from Here? (Part II)

I confess. Penguins GM Jim Rutherford stole a little of my thunder when he addressed the media via teleconference yesterday.

“I plan to move forward with the core,” Rutherford said, referring to the Pens’ big three of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. “These are good players and they still have good hockey left in them. I always have to say that if some amazing trade comes along that makes sense for the Penguins now and in the future, you have to look at it. But I will not be actively trying to trade our core players.”

Prior to his announcement, I thought JR might consider moving Letang. But that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Rutherford did stress plans to make the team younger. Sounds like the door could be open for prospects like Samuel Poulin and Pierre-Olivier Joseph to step in. Kids like Anthony Angello and Sam Lafferty could get longer looks, too.

“This could be a year where we try to get younger but in a way that we feel that we can still win,” Rutherford said. “Bring that new, young energy in. We’re going to have to make some changes because of the cap. We’re not going to re-sign all of our players. We’re not going to be able to even if we wanted to.”

He also hinted that he was open to different ideas and the team playing a different way. Which I take to mean embracing a more balanced style while perhaps adding a power element that currently missing.

With that in mind, I’ll attempt to analyze the rest of the roster to identify who stays and who goes. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll only address players currently on the NHL roster.

Forwards

It’s a lock that Crosby and Malkin will return, along with Jake Guentzel and Jason Zucker, who produced and played well after coming over from Minnesota in February (eight goals and 14 points in a combined 19 regular and postseason games). Add Bryan Rust to the list. The buzz-saw winger notched a career-high 27 goals while scoring at a point-per-game clip. At $3.5 million, he’s a bargain.

I think the “Energy Line” of Brandon Tanev, Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese (sorry Mike) will return intact. They graded out as one of the league’s top defensive lines during the regular season and each is under contact…the latter pair at a cap-friendly rate.

The rest of the forward group is a bit of a crapshoot. Look for JR to try and find takers for Nick Bjugstad, whose season was wrecked by injuries, and, as much as it pains me, beloved Patric Hornqvist and his $5.3 million cap hit. Although “Horny” has the heart of a lion and serves as the team’s emotional power plant, he’s been increasingly shunted to a bottom-six role, where his talents and drive are largely wasted. And the Pens do have some emerging power forwards in the pipeline (Poulin and Angello).

We won’t be able to move Bjugstad due to his cap hit ($4.1 million) and checkered medical history.

Among the RFAs, I believe JR will try to re-sign Angello, Lafferty and…to my chagrin…Dominik Simon, provided he can secure their services at a reasonable rate.

It’s hard to know how the organization views Jared McCann, who displayed so much promise when he first arrived. In his first 76 regular-season games wearing the black-and-gold spanning two seasons, he tallied a highly respectable 25 goals and 45 points while flashing star potential.

Then the wheels literally fell off his wagon. McCann failed to score a goal in his final 25 games and played so poorly he was benched for Game Three of the qualifying round…the only player to be singled out that way.

His downturn seemed to coincide with a shift from wing to center, his natural position.

Bottom line? I think the Pens will try to keep the Stratford, Ontario native, but won’t overpay to do it.

Among the rest? Patrick Marleau’s gone. I think Conor Sheary and Evan Rodriques will be, too, unless they’re willing to come back on the cheap (and I mean cheap). If Rutherford can sign one or the other at a rock-bottom rate, it might dislodge Simon.

Defense

Addressing his defensive corps, Rutherford made three things abundantly clear. Letang won’t be traded. Justin Schultz won’t be re-signed. And Jack Johnson (minus-4, 44 percent shot attempts percentage) wasn’t as culpable for the team’s own-zone woes as everyone would like to believe.

While many are clamoring for JR to buy out the veteran defenseman, the Pens have never done that before. My guess is they’ll try to move JJ, perhaps attaching him to a deal for Hornqvist or Matt Murray. If not? As unthinkable as it seems, he may be back.

The rest of the group is fairly set. Brian Dumoulin enjoyed a terrific regular season when healthy (plus-17, a stunning Corsi of 57.4). “Dumo’s” a steal at $4.1 million. John Marino enjoyed an outstanding rookie season and is a rising star. Affordable to boot. Marcus Pettersson seemed to flat-line following an excellent start in the Steel City, although he played in every game and shouldered a heavy load when his fellow defenders went down with injuries.

With his new contract kicking in at $4 million, chewing up some of the cap space cleared by allowing Schultz to walk, the rangy Swede could possibly be a sleeper trade candidate. But the Pens seem to like him.

Ready for prime time or not, look for Joseph to fill a slot, especially if Johnson moves on. Chad Ruhwedel remains in place as a solid No. 7 d-man.

The wild card here is Juuso Riikola, who did a lot of things well, but not enough to earn the trust of the coaches. If Mike Sullivan remains, it’s hard to imagine the young Finn returning.

Goal

Both Murray and Tristan Jarry enter the off-season as RFAs. It’s clear the team won’t be able to keep both.

With Murray reportedly seeking a long-term deal in the neighborhood of $7-8 million a year, it’s almost a sure bet that Rutherford will try to parlay the two-time Cup winner into an asset or two through a trade. It’s hard to know exactly what he’d fetch in return. Murray’s 2019-20 numbers were abysmal…an .899 save percentage, .421 quality starts percentage and a goals saved above average mark of minus-11.6.

Lest you think this is an anomaly, he posted similar stats in 2017-18.

Casey DeSmith, coming off a disappointing demotion and season at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (2.92 goals against, .905 save percentage) is under contract and would probably fill the backup role, although it’s possible JR could look elsewhere.

Needs

Obviously this is very fluid and depends on the scope and magnitude of changes. But the Pens could be seeking, in no particular order of importance, a third-line center, a right-shot defenseman and a veteran goalie to either back up or share the load with Jarry. Perhaps an aggressive winger to add a little bite up front (Calgary’s Sam Bennett comes to mind).

It’s interesting to note that Will Reilly, a big right-shot defenseman who plays with a bit of an edge, made significant strides during his senior year at RPI. But it might be asking too much for the 23-year-old to step in and claim a spot a la Marino. But, hey, we can dream.

One thing is certain. It should be an interesting off-season.

BULLETIN

The Penguins have fired assistant coaches Sergei Gonchar, Jacques Martin and Mark Recchi.