Penguins Update: Is Marcus Pettersson Really That Bad?

Read any Penguins blog or media outlet, including PenguinPoop, and you’re liable to see Marcus Pettersson’s name pop up with stunning frequency. As in, “…if the Pens could only trade Pettersson…”

You’d almost think he’s the poster child for all that ails the black and gold these days.

The native of Skelleftea, Sweden, could be excused for feeling a little like Rodney Dangerfield. I’ll tell ya, I don’t get no respect, no respect…

It wasn’t always so. When Pettersson first arrived in the ‘Burgh in December 2018 following a trade with Anaheim for prickly Daniel Sprong, he proved to be a revelation, almost single-handedly steadying a previously shaky defensive corps. The rangy Swede even received votes for the Calder Trophy.

How did he morph from a player of promise into trade bait? Is he really that bad?

Right or wrong, image counts for a lot. Going strictly by the eye test, the 25-year-old defenseman isn’t the prettiest guy to watch. Although he has a long skating stride and uses his stick and Pterandon wingspan to effectively defend and control gaps, he isn’t very mobile. In fact, for two seasons running Pettersson absorbed the most hits of player in the league. In 2019-20 alone he was mashed 249 times…a staggering 78 more than the runner up. So much for being able to get out of harm’s way.

Although he willingly takes the hits and tries to move opponents away from the net, Pettersson usually gets the worst of one-on-one battles due to his stick-figure physique (177 pounds spread over a lanky 6’3” frame).

Offensively, he makes a nice, feathery outlet pass. But his shot couldn’t break a pane of glass.

All this would lead you to believe that No. 28 isn’t all that effective. However, looks can be deceiving…especially in Pettersson’s case.

His advanced stats, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, tell a completely different story. Here’s how he rated among the team’s top eight defenders in terms of ice time:

Corsi For%: 51.4% (2nd)
Goals For%: 58.0% (3rd)
xGF%: 51.5% (2nd)
Scoring Chance %: 53.4% (2nd)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 47.9% (5th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 8.5% (5th)
On-ice save%: .935% (2nd)
Goals/60: .17 (6th)
Assist/60: .59 (5th)
Points/60: .76 (6th)

With only nine points in 47 games, offense clearly isn’t a strong suit. But Pettersson registered a WAR of 72 percent (with 50 percent being break-even) during what was considered a down year and 80 percent over the past three seasons.

Impressive.

Put in perspective, defensive stalwart Brian Dumoulin had a 71 percent WAR over that span. Kris Letang (59 percent) and Mike Matheson (42 percent) lag well behind, as does Cody Ceci (only 26 percent despite a solid ‘20-21 campaign).

Yet despite his strong metrics, Pettersson’s ice time dipped by nearly three minutes a game while he and partner John Marino were supplanted on the second pairing by Ceci and Matheson. A downgrade from the season before.

So why does Pettersson appear to be so undervalued?

I’ll sum it up in two words…his contract. After agreeing to a team-friendly one-year deal at $874 K during the summer of 2019, former GM Jim Rutherford inked him to a five-year extension in January 2020 worth $20.1 million, with an AAV of just over $4 million.

That’s a lot to pay for a player who seems to be settling into a third-pairing role. Especially given the Pens’ tight cap situation and the fact that Pierre-Olivier Joseph, who appears to have a stronger all-around game, is waiting in the wings….and at a much more favorable rate. Which suddenly makes Pettersson and his contract excess baggage.

Through no fault of his own, Marcus is a “victim of soicumstance,” to quote Curley of The Three Stooges.

Hopefully, things will work out. Perhaps Pettersson will regain the coaching staff’s trust and re-establish himself as an important cog on the Pens’ blue line. Or maybe general manager Ron Hextall will find a new home for Marcus (Anaheim/Detroit/Montreal?) where his quietly steady game and skill-set might be more appreciated.

In the meantime, he figures to be a fixture in offseason trade buzz.