The Semantics of Simon for the Penguins

You know, there are times when I feel bad for our friend Rick Buker. (After all, he has to put up with me multiple times per week.) Then, there are days like yesterday — you see, Rick isn’t as squeaky clean as he tries to appear here on Penguin Poop. He loves to poke the bear.

Like any long-time reader, Rick knows my not-so-humble opinions – particularly the negative ones, and he has a propensity for stoking the fire. Yesterday, he took great delight in ruining my good humor by directing my attention to yet another propaganda article trying to justify Dominik Simon’s wearing a Pittsburgh Penguins sweater.

Plain and simple, if Dominik Simon is the answer, then the question is stupid. If you were on Jeopardy and Simon’s name was revealed behind the tile, the answer could only be “Who is the least talented ECHL level Forward to steal the most NHL ice time in the history of Hockey?”

Now, there are those like Seth Rorbaugh, who wrote the aforementioned offending article, who lie about Simon’s efficacy as a player. (Rick has been pushing me for over a year to post this article – as you wish!)

The Lies Behind Dominik Simon

In the X-files episode E.B.E., Deep Throat tells Fox Mulder “A lie, Mr. Mulder, is most convincingly hidden between two truths.” I love that episode. More importantly, it is a great opening for my exposé. Dominik Simon is not a good hockey player; he is a millstone to any team foolish enough to tie him around their neck.

The “Friends of Dominik Simon Society” will tout the ersatz NHL Forward’s CORSI stats. Certainly, our friendly neighborhood pylon does have some fair 5 on 5 stats wearing the Black and Gold. If you look below, over his 3 full seasons in the ‘burgh, his 54.14% ranks him 2nd or 4^th depending on if you want to count marginal playing time or not.

Rank	Player	Po	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	CF/60	CA/60	CF%
1	Evan Rodrigues	C	7	63.48	9.10	61.43	35.91	63.11
2	Josh Archibald	R	3	26.85	8.95	58.1	40.22	59.09
3	Sidney Crosby	C	202	3129.21	15.49	66.42	54.93	54.73
4	Dominik Simon	C	168	2089.10	12.44	62.15	52.67	54.13
5	Jason Zucker	L	15	221.00	14.73	63.53	54.03	54.04
6	Carl Hagelin	L	97	1266.40	13.06	61.78	53.11	53.77
7	Jake Guentzel	C, L	203	3043.70	14.99	64.89	55.81	53.76
8	Kris Letang	D	205	3845.07	18.76	63.2	54.43	53.73

These numbers are an undeniable truth. However, the importance of the CORSI is questionable (but I will get to that in a moment). Let us continue examining the Simon myth.

Truth 1

Using this CORSI stat out of context is like a stage magician drawing attention to his left hand away from his pocket picking right, or like a very effective criminal lawyer cutting off a a witness from telling the whole truth and only allowing the jury to hear a portion of the truth, the portion that makes his client look innocent and hides the rest of the truth that convicts his guilt.

The Lie Between the Truths

With the veil drawn, these illusionists then lie saying Dominik Simon is a great player.

Truth 2

After asserting their lie, these practitioners of verbal legerdemain then assert that stats never lie. (Sorry Mike, they don’t lie.)

However, people do lie and this how they lie: they ignore the confounding variables that play into Simon’s CORSI stats. If one were to look deeper into all of the factors that affect a player’s CORSI, those who rely on the eye test would be justified in their disgust at seeing the empty sweater of Simon once again haunting their dreams of Penguins victories with his prowling on the fringes of the rink and his reticence to take the puck to the danger zones.

Which confounding variables am I talking about? Let’s examine some of the factors that go into the CORSI numbers, factors such as who was on the ice with him and where did he start his shift?

So, who did Simon play with?

Rank	With	Po	TOI With	TOI Away	CF/60	CA/60	CF% With	CF% Without
1	Matt Murray	G	1143.73	49.53	63.27	53.25	54.30	63.04
2	Sidney Crosby	C	899.25	810.10	68.52	51.24	57.21	49.93
3	Kris Letang	D	774.93	1011.92	66.90	49.78	57.33	50.05
4	Brian Dumoulin	D	572.32	875.53	68.14	48.23	58.56	53.21
5	Tristan Jarry	G	563.77	36.20	58.11	53.96	51.85	66.67
6	Jake Guentzel	C, L	546.95	1216.90	71.74	48.38	59.73	53.2

Looking down the list of the most common players on the ice with Simon (outside of the Goalies), Crosby, Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, and Jake Guentzel represent some serious talent to hide behind. What is really interesting here is if you were to compare the CF% With column and the Simon CF% Without column. Again, outside of the Goalies, when Simon is not on the ice with the above mentioned elite NHL skaters, his CORSI numbers plummet.

Therefore, it should have come as no surprise to anyone capable of critical thought that Simon failed in Calgary last year — as evidenced by his not so stellar 46.45%

Season	Team	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%
2015-2016	PIT	3	18.22	19	13	59.38
2016-2017	PIT	2	25.10	21	26	44.68
2017-2018	PIT	33	357.87	401	332	54.71
2018-2019	PIT	71	871.97	914	727	55.7
2019-2020	PIT	64	859.27	849	775	52.28
2020-2021	CGY	11	100.85	85	98	46.45

Line mates really do matter. Some players pick up their line mates  — others do not.

Season	Team	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	O-Zone Starts	N-Zone Starts	D-Zone Starts	On The Fly Starts	O-Zone Start %
2015-2016	PIT	3	18.217	19	13	59.38	4	8	1	15	80
2016-2017	PIT	2	25.10	21	26	44.68	6	11	5	18	54.55
2017-2018	PIT	33	357.87	401	332	54.71	57	95	54	284	51.35
2018-2019	PIT	71	871.97	914	727	55.7	149	224	109	713	57.75
2019-2020	PIT	64	859.27	849	775	52.28	188	211	86	680	68.61
2020-2021	CGY	11	100.85	85	98	46.45	21	20	13	85	61.76

Yep, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Pundits precious pylon has always started more shifts in the offensive zone (Off. Zone Start%) compared to defensive zone starts. Every season, even in Calgary, he has gotten prime shift starts. Now, Gentle Readers, let’s look down the CF% Column (the CORSI%); most of the numbers are above 50%, meaning the Penguins get more shot attempts than their opponents when he is on the ice. However, outside of 2017 – 2018, the CF% is lower than the Off. Zone Start%.  Starting in the Offensive Zone certainly gives a player a better opportunity to get a CF and limit the number of CA. Sorry, but unless you are looking through kaleidoscope eyes, these numbers should at least cause one to question Simon’s value.

Digging Deeper – It Doesn’t Appear That Simon Helps Sustain Offensive Pressure

Season	Team	GP	TOI	O-Zone Starts	N-Zone Starts	Def. Zone Starts	On The Fly Starts	O-Zone Start %	O-Zone FO	N-Zone FO	D-Zone FOs	O-Zone FO %
2015-2016	PIT	3	18.22	4	8	1	15	80	6	9	1	85.71
2016-2017	PIT	2	25.10	6	11	5	18	54.55	7	14	6	53.85
2017-2018	PIT	33	357.87	57	95	54	284	51.35	107	124	109	49.54
2018-2019	PIT	71	871.97	149	224	109	713	57.75	271	309	211	56.22
2019-2020	PIT	64	859.27	188	211	86	680	68.61	318	281	198	61.63
2020-2021	CGY	11	100.85	21	20	13	85	61.76	33	26	21	61.11

Now let’s compare Off. Zone Start% to Off. Zone Faceoff% (the ratio of Offensive to Defensive Zone Faceoffs); the Off. Zone Start% is always higher than the Off. Zone Face Off%. Sorry, but that seems to me that the Penguins’ Opponents start tilting the ice back the other way when Simon is on the ice. To me, this shift in Percentages seems to indicate a lack of sustained Offensive Zone pressure with Simon on the ice, even with the number of quality-line mates he is given here in Pittsburgh.

Rank	Player	Po	GP	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
1	Patrick Marleau	C	8	4.64	5.3	46.67
2	Adam Johnson	C	13	4.59	3.82	54.55
3	Jamie Oleksiak	D	83	3.22	2.45	56.78
4	Evgeni Malkin	C	201	3.2	2.87	52.74
5 – 21
22	Patric Hornqvist	R	191	2.6	2.11	55.26
23	Jared McCann	C	98	2.6	2.21	54.08
24	Dominik Simon	C	168	2.56	2.58	49.72
25	Olli Maatta	D	142	2.47	2.41	50.56
26 – 48
49	Tom Kuhnhackl	R	69	1.23	2.47	33.33
50	Carter Rowney	R	44	1.19	3.97	23.08

Simon’s relatively low positioning in GF/60 (24^th out of 56 players during this time frame) would back up the idea of a lack of sustained pressure. If the team wasn’t scoring goals and the O-Zone FO% was lower than O-Zone Starts%, the puck had to be going somewhere (out of the Offensive Zone?)

Simon the Ineffective Player

The biggest laugh I had yesterday is when I read Rorabaugh quoting Mike Sullivan, “The thing that we’ve always had so much respect for Dom’s game is his strength on the puck,” Sullivan said. “He’s so strong on the puck,…” Simon is the paragon of our Penguins failures. He is a perimeter player who can’t get to the paint and who drags the offense to a crawl. Despite with whom he gets to play with he generates very little offense (2.56 G/60) while the team gives up more Gs with him on the ice (2.58).

The lack of G/60 5 on 5 isn’t a shocker considering that the team doesn’t have a very high Shooting Percentage S% when he is out there (see below).

Rank	Player	Po	GP	On-Ice SH%	On-Ice SV%
1	Adam Johnson	C	13	15	87.8
2 – 8
9	Evgeni Malkin	C	201	9.09	91.06
10	Anthony Angello	C	8	9.09	88
11	Bryan Rust	R	196	8.94	91.69
12	Jared McCann	C	98	8.79	92.17
13 – 18
19	Sidney Crosby	C	202	8.37	91.52
20	Marcus Pettersson	D	126	8.26	92.72
21	Kris Letang	D	205	8.24	90.65
22 – 28
29	Dominik Simon	C	168	7.5	91.13
30	Jack Johnson	D	149	7.47	92.13

29^th out of 56 in On-Ice S% with the human pylon on the ice.

So why is the S% so low? Perhaps it the team’s inability to get to the High Danger areas with Simon out there. \(see below)

Rank	Player	Po	GP	HDCF/60	HDCA/60	HDCF%
1	Josh Archibald	R	3	15.64	4.47	77.78
2 – 3
4	Sidney Crosby	C	202	13.73	11.06	55.38
5	Jake Guentzel	C, L	203	13.58	11.75	53.62
6 – 8
9	Evgeni Malkin	C	201	12.89	11.64	52.54
10	Kris Letang	D	205	12.8	11.13	53.49
11 – 20
21	Dominik Simon	C	168	11.75	9.59	55.05
22 – 25
26	Daniel Sprong	R	24	11.18	8.73	56.16
27 – 43
44	Jared McCann	C	98	9.09	8.65	51.25
45 – 56

In fact, in the first preseason game this year with Simon on the ice, the team got into the High Danger areas zero times, the null set. For all the” sound and fury” that Sullivan seems to see in Simon, it signifies absolutely nothing.

Worse yet is the fact that Simon is now 27. He has never topped the double digits in Gs in a season, nor has he passed the 30-point mark. Research has shown that a Forward hits his peak at age 25. Simon may still be at the top of his game at 27, but if his numbers are this low in individual stats and his on-ice stats vary this widely depending on the quality of his line mates and starting position, then he is not going to get any better. He in not the answer to any but the dumbest questions.

Simon may be a nice guy and the players may like him, but he adds nothing to the team while stealing a roster spot from someone that could be a benefit. Being a nice guy certainly didn’t help our Penguins still had early playoff exits.

Go Pens!