Our Pittsburgh Penguins haven’t won a game since game 5, on October 22. That means our seafaring Sphenisciformes have gone 7 games without a win. They did pick up one point in those 7 games during an overtime loss to, of all teams, the Boston Bruins. However, they have not registered a win during that span.
The good news is that the laws of probability suggest that they will eventually get a win. There are 70 games left. It is highly improbable our boys in Black and Gold will go 77 games without a W.
In a similar vein, by now, it should be evident that this team is not a serious contender. There are not a whole lot of Stanley Cup winners that go 7 games without a win during the regular season, at least not without a coaching change.
I am not going to say it can’t happen, that we won’t see a Disney happing ending. Often, all it takes is some puck luck, a freak goal, that leads to a victory and confidence is restored. A team with swaggering can start to win games.
If you have been diligently reading as much about our hometown heroes as you could, pouring through all the blogs or if you have been listening to all the talking heads on the sports talk show circuit trying to dissect our waddling waterfowl’s winless ways; the shear number of opinions is dizzying. Therefore, I am not going to assault your senses with my own take on our favorite flightless fowl’s foundering. Nor am I going to argue with any of the excuses offered up to date to explain this apparent death spiral our Penguins are locked in.
All that I will say about this streak is that you don’t go 7 games without a win by accident. To break the streak, changes will have to come, or the results WILL stay the same.
Time is running short. Teams that are out of the hunt for a playoff spot by Thanksgiving rarely make the playoffs. Thanksgiving is only 18 days away. Mike Sullivan’s boys have 7 games in that span of days, but only 2 of them are home games.
Currently, the Penguins are 25th in the league in terms of points percentage and none of the 7 games between now and Thanksgiving will be played against teams below our boys of winter.
Fortunately, Sullivan does have several days off to prepare for the 7-game gauntlet that lies between today and perhaps Pittsburgh’s D-Day. Teddy Blueger and Jeff Carter will have had 4 days to heal and get in the lineup. Any players who may have come down with an illness will also have had 4 days to convalesce.
Now that is a great question and the purpose to which I am writing.
I repeat, I don’t care why the team is losing. However, if Sullivan can’t right this ship’s listing, with the 4 days he has to prepare for the up coming test and with a potentially a fully healthy squad, the shoe has to drop.
Like our friend Phil, I have no real problem with Ron Hextall keeping the “Core” together for a last hoorah. There are many intangibles that go along with having Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang playing their entire careers in a Penguins uniform. It could make for an environment that will attract other good players, Free Agents looking for stability. Keeping the “Core” together could pay dividends in the future.
There even is some value in keeping Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust around.
When the “Core” was young, they needed the steadying influence of veteran players like Bill Guerin and Sergei Gonchar. Young guns need veteran leadership. However, an old “Core” needs more veterans around them like a Polar Bear needs an ice cube. Our “Core” needed to be surrounded by youth. It was asinine to start the season with the oldest team in the league.
While I can be behind Hextall keeping the team together, even if they fail to even get to the playoffs, let alone out of the first round, I can’t say I support the team’s decision to be the oldest in the League. I can get behind a team that has Filip Hållander, Valterri Puustinen, and Corey Andonovski learning from their mistakes but not behind Kasperi Kapanen, Brock McGinn, Josh Archibald, Jeff Petry, Brian Dumoulin, and Marcus Pettersson giving their best with their best being not good enough.
Dan Kingerski, of another blog, has suggested that the team make a trade to right this ship. Like me Kingerski suggests that the top 4 Forwards and Letang stay but all other players can be options for trade. Unfortunately, there aren’t many players that any teams may want or at least be willing to give up anything of value.
Rickard Rakell does have 5 Goals (G) in the first 12 Games Played (GP). That isn’t too shabby. However, he is signed through 2027-2028 at $5 Million. He probably won’t draw much interest. (I was on record this past off-season for not re-signing him).
Kapanen only has 1 G in the first 12 GP and he has 1 more season on a $3.2 Million per season contract. He may draw some interest, but the team is hardly likely to get a game changer for him. (I was on record this past off-season for making him a qualifying offer, but for trading him.)
Perhaps, at this point in the season, the only players that might get Hextall any return may be Jason Zucker (who is off to solid start), Pettersson and Pierre-Olivier Joseph (they have good stats at this point of the season that just may mask their short-comings). However, trading any of these players might be an admission of a rebuild and trading them may be best done at the trade deadline.
Regardless of whether or not a trade can be made, the problem here is that the same Captain is steering the ship. With so little in assets and/or Cap space to play with, the most logical change should be in Coaching. A new vision with a new Helmsman at the wheel will be the quickest and easiest change. It would only cost the team money (salary) but not Cap space and maybe, just maybe cure it of its allergy to size, grit, and youth.
Getting Blueger and Carter back may help a little, but what if it doesn’t. Hextall needs a plan B, just as Sullivan needs a plan B. Where do you go Mr. GM if you are out of the hunt by Thanksgiving?
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Hi TOR!
I haven't read one of your articles for a while! But I'm back to my good reading habits!
You nailed a few things with this article. In my opinion, Ron Hextall has not been very active so far. He opted for the status quo, probably with the aim of buying time. There is almost no young talent in the American League or the East Coast League. I am afraid that the development of players like Sam Poulin and Nathan Legare will be jeopardized. Let's just say that Jim Rutherford has virtually drained the prospect pool, so Hextall has little room to manoeuvre.
Another factor working against him is the shadow of Le Magnifique. He may be a minority shareholder, but I think he still has a say in hockey operations. I wonder if Hextall and Burke really have carte blanche for certain types of trades.
It's time to taking stock with the Penguins. There are decision makers who need to be held accountable. Blaming players for poor performance in the regular season or playoffs is one thing. But when coaches blame players without ever looking themselves in the mirror, that's burying their heads in the sand.
A good hockey team is a combination of talent, creativity, toughness, energy, character, discipline, chemistry and team spirit. I believe that the Penguins don't have all of those things. Albert Einstein once said that insanity is always doing the same thing and expecting different results. This has been the Penguins' motto for quite some time.
Sorry, TOR, I got carried away! 🙂
Hey Jorenz,
Thanks for getting back to good habits
Speaking of nailing it, "A good hockey team is a combination of talent, creativity, toughness, energy, character, discipline, chemistry and team spirit." This team still has talented players, albeit aged talented players but there is a serious lack of toughness, energy, character, and chemistry. The "next man up" mantra stripped this team of any real toughness. Even the players that try to be tough are too small to be tough. They would have a hard time winning a pillow fight. As the oldest team in the league, there is precious little energy, so much so that it needs to be dolled out judiciously lest they have nothing left in March (but then again come March there may be no need of energy). The character this team is supposed to have is speed and forechecking - yea right, you can time their skating with a calendar and even when they get there on time, they couldn't separate and infant from their binky they are so weak. As for Chemistry, outside of Guentzel - Crosby - Rust, the rest is a free for all, no chance of building chemistry.
JR certainly stripped this team of a ton of talent and got little to nothing in return. Every single piece of both Reaves trades are gone - out of the organization and Hallander is the only remaining vestige from the Brassard trade. However, Hextall is not completely innocent either. Matheson for Petry may be this seasons debacle.
and don't worry about getting carried away, we all do.
PS did you see today's standings? There is good news there - of a sort. looking at Pnts %, if the season ended today, our Pens would have a shot at a top 5 pick in next seasons draft. Of course, that means we have slipped to 27th in the league in terms of Pnts% but what the 4377 we get a good draft pick to waste in a system that doesn't know how to develop them and without the inclination to try, or even play them.
Hey Jim,
The sad thing is, there are those who still think our Pens are a Cup contender. You and I saw this coming 5-6 years ago and prosthelytized change then. No one listened. Way too often we were treated rudely. Yet, had the team retooled way back when, Sid and crew would have had more than 1 more serious chance to make a run for the Cup. Egos got in the way for management and rather than acknowledge mistakes and make the necessary changes, the kept trying to put band aids on arterial bleeders.
You are right, I am trying to be kind. These guys, particularly the forwards are trying and that is what is scary. They are giving their Sunday best and losing. I don't want to dump on them.
The people who put them together, however, I do have a problem.
What I only alluded too but did not come out and say is that if this team is out of the playoff hunt at Thanksgiving, then blow it up. STOP pretending. Bring up the kids and start making plans for the rebuild, it is now too late to retool. As the trade deadline approaches - Fire Sale.
Well said Coach.
The time for a retool has long pasted as you stated. It is a rebuild now.
If we wish to keep the core together as it appears we do, then everyone else is available for the right price.
We need to acquire at least 2 top 5 picks in 2023 and also trade very well .We can ill afford mistakes.
This is what we need to do but i bet the new owners will not do it.
Cheers
JIM
Hey Jim,
I am afraid you are right, egos will preclude any positive movements.
The Other Rick
To a point I agree with your statement that their are benefits in the Free Agency market for staying loyal
and keeping the core together - the problem I have with it is no one will sign with the Pen's until at the
very least Letang and Malkin retire and Hextall gave both long term deals "Kiss of Death".
Also, I know I'm big on having a physical presence and the Pen's have no one that can give them an
emotional lift when things are going bad. We have to many players (entire team) that are allergic
to physical play. Hextall goes out and picks up Petry and Rutta and I'm on record saying this was
strictly a cosmetic move to make it look like he was addressing the need for size and toughness. I
know your beating the drums to have Sullivan let go and I don't disagree but as the days pass I'm
leaning more towards a change at the GM position - bring in someone that's not afraid to give Sullivan
an ultimatum regarding physical play. Now that the Fenway Group has purchased the team I think it
solidifies Sullivans status with the team - he's not going anywhere "sadly".
Hey Mike,
I agree the Petry trade and the Rutta signing were for optics. Rutta has at least been a positive in the +/- department, but the Petry trade is killing the team. I was on record with saying this, Hextall robbed the Left side of its only competent D man to shore up the Right side.
Also agree with you in that GMRH has to go too, if certain of the teams decisions were his and not handed down from above. ie the decision to give Sullivan a 3-year extension after 4 straight first round exits, rather than demanding he earn the extension.
Sadly, as you write, the decision to give Sullivan that 3-year extension did come down from above, it will be hard to find a scenario where the egos above the GM rank will acknowledge their failure and they may even double down on that bad decision.
however, if logic prevails, Sullivan is the easiest change to make and could potentially have the biggest immediate impact.
If it was up to me, the leash would be these next seven games and 18 days.
Hey Coach,
Your being very kind in your analysis of the current situation. I THINK I UNDERSTAND WHY. No one wants to make the situation any worse by dumping on the team.I agree we will win our share of games this year and this will NOT be the last losing streak we will face in 2022-2023 season.
One of the issues for me is how do we change the team's make up when we have committed to staying the course. It is a nice concept that some how we are going to keep all the Core plus others around yet we all still want to make sure we make the play offs. For me this is obvious...I do not want to JUST make the play offs, make the streak go another season.
NO !! I want to see Crosby win 1 more Cup for his legacy then he retire before he re injures himself. He has 3 chances to do it with the Penguins.. This team is not a Cup Contender and we need to make changes.
I sense your frustration Coach.....Your not alone my friend.
Cheers
JIM