Penguins by the Numbers: Some Metrics to Ponder

I was all set to do final report cards on our Penguins when, like Ford Motor Company back in the day, I got a better idea.

The ultimate aim of any hockey player is to contribute to his team scoring goals while preventing the other team from scoring. With that in mind, I decided to take a gander at some advanced stats instead of doling out what would be largely subjective and perhaps less meaningful grades.

In terms of ranking, I elected to go with Goals For Percentage (GF%) as my cornerstone stat. I’ve also included Goals For (GF), Goals Against (GA) and Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%), as well as Goals For/60 (GF/60) and Goals Against/60 (GA/60). For good measure, I’ll include Corsi as well. All stats are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and represent 5v5 play.

Keep in mind, while metrics certainly provide a measure of performance, they don’t necessarily tell the whole story. There’s all sorts of variables that come into play…a player’s role and deployment, the quality of opposition, game situations, etc.

When I parsed the numbers, there were quite a few surprises. On the plus side, with a Goals For Percentage of 92.86, Radim Zohorna was a 5v5 monster. This isn’t an anomaly. For his NHL career, Big Z’s been on the ice for 20 goals for and only 3 against 5v5. It bears out what I’ve felt all along…the big guy deserves a closer look from Mike Sullivan the coaching staff. Fortunately, he’s under contract for one more season.

Others who shone? Perhaps to no one’s surprise, Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby, Teddy Blueger and Jake Guentzel. A player who far exceeded his Expected Goals For Percentage? Departed defensive wiz Zach Aston-Reese. Given the way we struggled to protect leads against the Rangers in the playoffs, it makes you wonder if GM Ron Hextall might bring ZAR back this summer on the cheap.

In the middle of the pack, Kasperi Kapanen wasn’t as bad as I thought and the recently re-signed Bryan Rust wasn’t as good. Big Brian Boyle provided decent bang for our buck, especially for a 37-year-old returning from a one-year layoff.

Among the notable minuses? Evgeni Malkin and Jeff Carter had 5v5 Goals For Percentages well below 50 percent. Geno, of course, is a UFA this summer. However, Carter is under contract for the next two seasons (ouch). Reputed to be a strong defensive player, Brock McGinn was underwater as well.

A number of skaters were in the red when comparing their actual Goals For Percentage to their Expected Goals For Percentage, including Evan Rodrigues, Danton Heinen and blueliners John Marino, Marcus Pettersson and Chad Ruhwedel. Which basically says they didn’t capitalize on the opportunities they helped create. Not a huge surprise, given our low finishing percentage as a team.

Again, these numbers aren’t the be-all-end-all in evaluating a player’s worth and performance. There are scores of other metrics. But they are interesting and enlightening. And, at least in some cases, they reinforce the eye-test.

Player	Pos.	GP	GF	GA	GF%	xGF%	Diff.	GF/60	GA/60	Diff.	CF%
Puustinen	R	1	2	0	100.00	71.09	28.91	13.79	0.00	13.79	46.15
Zohorna	L	17	13	1	92.86	57.18	35.68	4.70	0.36	4.34	56.93
Riikola	D	5	4	2	66.67	56.16	10.51	4.18	2.09	2.09	54.40
Rakell	R	19	19	12	61.29	56.17	5.12	4.11	2.60	1.51	54.01
Crosby	C	69	55	35	61.11	54.62	6.49	3.14	2.00	1.14	54.12
Aston-Reese	L	52	20	13	60.61	50.41	10.20	2.05	1.33	0.72	49.58
Blueger	C	65	34	23	59.65	51.42	8.23	2.56	1.73	0.83	48.38
Guentzel	L	76	63	46	57.80	53.75	4.05	3.27	2.39	0.88	53.40
Letang	D	78	71	56	55.91	51.67	4.24	2.83	2.23	0.60	51.24
Dumoulin	D	76	67	53	55.83	50.99	4.84	2.86	2.26	0.60	48.95
Matheson	D	74	64	51	55.65	54.15	1.50	3.04	2.42	0.62	53.68
Kapanen	R	79	37	30	55.22	52.37	2.85	2.27	1.84	0.43	51.57
Boyle	C	66	23	19	54.76	50.76	4.00	2.41	1.99	0.42	49.66
Heinen	L	76	45	38	54.22	56.80	-2.58	3.12	2.63	0.49	54.14
Rust	R	60	42	36	53.85	51.18	2.67	3.08	2.64	0.44	50.96
Rodrigues	C	82	44	39	53.01	57.66	-4.65	2.50	2.21	0.29	56.91
Pettersson	D	72	42	38	52.50	54.47	-1.97	2.37	2.14	0.23	53.57
Ruhwedel	D	78	47	46	50.54	56.33	-5.79	2.69	2.64	0.05	53.49
Marino	D	81	48	48	50.00	51.48	-1.48	3.12	3.12	0.00	51.83
Simon	C	55	20	20	50.00	58.01	-8.01	2.69	2.69	0.00	57.84
Zucker	L	41	24	24	50.00	53.86	-3.86	2.40	2.40	0.00	50.67
Lafferty	C, R	10	4	4	50.00	57.59	-7.59	2.26	2.26	0.00	55.64
Angello	R	4	1	1	50.00	32.33	17.67	2.15	2.15	0.00	44.44
Friedman	D	26	13	14	48.15	55.39	-7.24	2.48	2.67	-0.19	49.92
McGinn	L	64	26	29	47.27	49.48	-2.21	1.93	2.15	-0.22	46.07
O’Connor	L	22	8	9	47.06	64.67	-17.61	2.37	2.67	-0.30	59.64
Malkin	C	41	23	29	44.23	54.23	-10.00	2.49	3.13	-0.64	54.27
Carter	C	76	38	49	43.68	47.52	-3.84	2.29	2.95	-0.66	47.07
Joseph	D	4	2	3	40.00	63.95	-23.95	1.74	2.61	-0.87	56.69
Bjorkqvist	R	6	1	2	33.33	50.32	-16.99	1.37	2.75	-1.38	55.07
Hallander	C	1	0	0	NA	17.31	NA	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00