Curious about how one of our Penguins (I won’t mention who) was faring in terms of 5v5 goals on ice for and against, I decided to check his numbers. From there it was a short leap to expand on my original search and include the whole team.
I like the goals for/goals against stat because…bottom line…that’s what it’s all about. While there are all sorts of variables that come into play…a player’s role and deployment, the quality of opposition, game situations, etc., a player wants to help his team score and prevent the other team from scoring.
I decided to rank our guys by Goals For Percentage (GF%). Other stats listed include Goals For (GF), Goals Against (GA) as well as Expected Goals For (xGF), Expected Goals Against (xGA) and Expected Goals For Percentage (XGF%). I also calculated the differential between GF% and xGF%.
All values represent 5v5 play and are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. Without further ado, here are the numbers.
| Player | Pos. | GP | GF | GA | GF% | xGF | xGA | xGF% | Diff. |
| Archibald | R | 30 | 9 | 2 | 81.82 | 10.22 | 7.97 | 56.21 | 25.61 |
| Rakell | R | 33 | 31 | 18 | 63.27 | 28.47 | 20.68 | 57.93 | 5.34 |
| Joseph | D | 29 | 23 | 14 | 62.16 | 19.43 | 18.20 | 51.65 | 10.51 |
| Malkin | C | 33 | 22 | 14 | 61.11 | 24.28 | 16.94 | 58.90 | 2.21 |
| Zucker | L | 29 | 21 | 15 | 58.33 | 23.25 | 14.93 | 60.89 | (2.56) |
| Poehling | C-L | 30 | 9 | 7 | 56.25 | 9.98 | 9.79 | 50.50 | 5.75 |
| Crosby | C | 33 | 30 | 25 | 54.55 | 28.14 | 21.43 | 56.76 | (2.21) |
| Pettersson | D | 33 | 25 | 21 | 54.35 | 31.68 | 22.38 | 58.60 | (4.25) |
| Rutta | D | 33 | 20 | 17 | 54.05 | 20.42 | 19.22 | 51.51 | 2.54 |
| Petry | D | 28 | 23 | 20 | 53.49 | 22.35 | 18.68 | 54.47 | (0.98) |
| Ruhwedel | D | 16 | 10 | 9 | 52.63 | 10.53 | 7.59 | 58.12 | (5.49) |
| Guentzel | L | 29 | 23 | 21 | 52.27 | 24.56 | 19.57 | 55.66 | (3.39) |
| Rust | R | 33 | 21 | 23 | 47.73 | 22.91 | 17.36 | 56.90 | (9.17) |
| Letang | D | 27 | 20 | 23 | 46.51 | 25.26 | 23.14 | 52.19 | (5.68) |
| McGinn | L | 33 | 12 | 14 | 46.15 | 12.41 | 14.90 | 45.44 | 0.71 |
| Carter | C | 30 | 12 | 15 | 44.44 | 12.87 | 16.06 | 44.49 | (0.05) |
| Heinen | L-R | 28 | 11 | 14 | 44.00 | 13.39 | 12.87 | 50.99 | (6.99) |
| Kapanen | R | 24 | 10 | 13 | 43.48 | 10.07 | 13.35 | 43.00 | 0.48 |
| Dumoulin | D | 33 | 19 | 27 | 41.30 | 22.85 | 22.98 | 49.86 | (8.56) |
| Blueger | C | 18 | 4 | 8 | 33.33 | 6.20 | 6.48 | 48.92 | (15.59) |
| Poulin | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.97 | 1.39 | 41.17 | (41.17) |
| O’Connor | L-C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.31 | 1.13 | 53.66 | (53.66) |
| Caggiula | L | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 1.34 | 34.32 | (34.32) |
| Hallander | L | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 0.15 | 0.72 | 17.35 | NA |
The batting order generally falls in line with the perception of who’s playing well and who’s not. For example, forward Rickard Rakell and defenseman Pierre-Olivier Joseph have drawn raves, while former defensive stalwart Brian Dumoulin’s struggles have been well publicized.
Other surprises on the plus side include Evgeni Malkin, who’s been better 5v5 than I would’ve imagined, and free-agent pickup Josh Archibald, whose signing drew howls of protests from some.
It’s also interesting to note that all but eight Pens have negative differentials between actual GF% and xGF%, which would seem to indicate the team isn’t performing as well at 5v5 as expected. Indeed, while we’re ranked 13th in the league in GF% 5v5 at 52.21, we’re sixth in xGF% at 53.75, a deficit of 1.54 percent.
For the record, we’ve scored 71 goals 5v5 and allowed 65, a differential of plus-6. Certainly not bad, but nowhere near elite teams like Boston (+30), New Jersey (+27) and Toronto and surprising Seattle (+23 apiece).
Another telling stat? The Pens are presently ranked 18th out of 32 teams in 5v5 shot attempts percentage at an even 50 percent. An important indicator, given that 12 of the 14 teams behind us are presently out of a playoff spot.
All this seems to support the fact that our exemplary special teams play along with superb goaltending from Tristan Jarry have been the driving forces behind our 15-3-3 run. And our 5v5 play, while decent, hasn’t been as strong as it could be.
Something to keep an eye on as we head into the New Year.
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Rick & The Other Rick
Merry XMas
First regarding Archibald - I also thought it was a questionable signing, but I did predict he would immediately be
placed on the opening day lineup. The thing that bothers me the most isn't his age or holding a young player
back from seeing NHL playing time, for me it's his size and how effective he'll be come playoff time. The Pen's have
always had a bad habit of placing players on the 4th line that couldn't crack lines 1, 2, & 3. Your put their by default.
Same goes for POJ - How will he fair in the playoffs when opposing teams crash our net and taking shots at our
Goaltender?? I'm not optimistic and personally don't believe we can go into the playoffs with both POJ and
Pettersson making up 1/3 of your Defensive pairings.
Now Malkin - to me it's same old, same old and it annoys me with the way some people try to blame Malkin's wingers. Just a quick note - Malkin has (17) of his 33pts at even strength - while Zucker gets limited time on the PP's second unit
he has (15) of his 21pts at even strength. Malkin is seeing almost 2:30 min more of PP time - he leads the team in
giveaways (46). IMO the center is responsible for improving the play of his wingers, not the other way around.
Last but not least - the team has played above expectations but this is the regular season - Playoffs are another
animal all together and unless Hextall makes a couple of strategic moves at the trade deadline I'm afraid it will be
same old, same old.
Hey Mike,
A Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you as well. I've been wondering about you and hoping you are well.
I'm not as down on the Pens as you and Other Rick seem to be. Mind you, I'm not predicting a Stanley Cup. In fact, given how tough the Metro is, there isn't even any guarantee we'll make the playoffs (although I think we will).
Still, I think there's a lot to like about this team. The top two lines are strong and I like our fourth line when everyone's healthy. The third line...wellllll...not so much. I think McGinn's done a super job...don't know if he can sustain it. Carter has really slowed down and, faceoff work aside, is an obvious weak link. Kapanen's hit or miss.
Would like us to get a legit banger for the third line...Tanner Jeannot of Nashville appeals to me.
I have concerns about our 'd' too. Dumoulin has really faded and is a liability. He and Rutta, who I like but not with Dumo, aren't a tandem made in Heaven. I like Petry...I think he's the glue guy back there...and I don't mind Pettersson, either. I share your concerns about Joseph. Like him in open ice but worry about him in close quarters.
I'm okay with Jarry and DeSmith in goal.
What makes this season so interesting is that every team has holes due to the cap. I'll be really interested to see what goes down come the trade deadline and how teams (including the Pens) work around the restrictions.
In the meantime, I guess I'm letting myself enjoy this last golden stretch with Sid, Geno and Tanger and the fact that we're still an entertaining team to watch. Kind of like the late 1990s.
Again, hope all is well my friend. Oh...you were right about Zucker. Love the way he's played and the elements he brings to table.
Rick
Hey Mike,
I am not all that optimistic about our Goalies either. I didn't mention them because they are playing just as I suspected - inconsistent. And I agree, with POJ and Pettersson, and I will add Dumoulin, I fear not only what could happen in the playoffs but down the stretch run. To me that whole left side is something straight out of a John Carpenter movie. But again, my expectations were low at the beginning of Camp.
As for Malkin, yes he does lead the team in Gv and is 6th in the league in Gv, but he also leads the team in Tk and is 4th in the league in that dept. To me, all that tells me is that he is one of the most engaged players in the league. You can't give the puck away if you aren't carrying it, and you aren't playing defensive if you are sitting back ad waiting for the play to come to you. In the end he is just slightly in the negative when it comes to Gv/Tk.
What concerns me more than Geno's Gv/Tk (which doesn't concern me at all) is Letang''s 31 to 19 ratio (-12) Pettersson's 22 to 9 (-12), Dumoulin's 18 to 11 (-7), and POJ's 17 to 11 (-7). These guys are sitting on their heels, passively watching the play and waving their sticks at opponents rather than aggressively attacking the play.
What is the old adage, victory goes to the bold. These D men are timid, almost empty sweaters on the ice. I will give Letang a slight pass with his stroke. He may actually have been symptomatic before he caught it. As for the rest, I would trade them all for a used bag of pucks and some broken sticks.
Hey Rick
Interesting concept for an article, very interesting. The whole piece is predicated on everyone’s own expectation. As a team, our Penguins are slightly above my expectations with some players above, others below, but most are about where I expected.
You mentioned Rackell and POJ; Although, if you remember my post in the preseason about what I would do if I were GM and Rackell wasn’t on my roster. I never doubted his ability. It is just that I would have allocated those resources elsewhere. He is playing exactly as I suspected, quietly driving the play.
POJ, he, too, is playing as I suspected, but that doesn’t mean I am raving about him. I still would dump him in a heartbeat if I could.
“What? how can you say that Other Rick?”
I never said he couldn’t skate. I have always said he is very weak physically and his play shows it. He gets manhandled in his own zone. I said as long as Petrie was in the lineup to take the physical heat, POJ would be ok, but he needs someone to pair with that could be physical for him. Go back to natural stat trick and look at those numbers again but use the filters to look at POJ’s play since Petrie has been on IR, his GF% has been 20% while his xGF% is 40.79%.
You also mention Malkin and Archibald, neither of these players have surprised me either. I am not in the same camp as those haters that are always grousing about the Big Bear. His problem has always been linemates. Our esteemed coach always seems to strip Geno of linemates until Sid is injured and, in those instances, media types blindly wonder how No. 71 always picks up his game. The answer is perfectly obvious to any logical thinker. The one thing that has changed in those instances is his linemates. He inherits real NHL wingers. In fact, with-or-without you stats show that Guentzel and Rust always play better with Malkin but…..
Archibald? I was one of those bemoaning the RW signing. My complaint still stands. It is not that I doubted his ability to be a defensive asset, it is just that I don’t like the idea of a 30-year-old playing on the 4th line while there are prospects wilting on the vine, not getting a chance to develop.
Zucker, Poehling, and Pettersson may be the only skaters that are producing above my expectations. Zucker’s health has been above my expectations, but his scoring would seem to follow his normal pattern, scoring at the beginning of the season but fading over time. Poehling has been a complete surprise, playing above my expectations and he is young too. And Pettersson, he is slightly above my expectations. He is not playing as well as media types would have the uninitiated believe but he is playing better than I thought he would.
I may have to start saying that Rutta and Petrie played above my expectations. Since Petrie has been injured, only Malkin and Rust are above 50% in GF%
Just adding my 2 cents