Penguins Meeting Expectations?

Curious about how one of our Penguins (I won’t mention who) was faring in terms of 5v5 goals on ice for and against, I decided to check his numbers. From there it was a short leap to expand on my original search and include the whole team.

I like the goals for/goals against stat because…bottom line…that’s what it’s all about. While there are all sorts of variables that come into play…a player’s role and deployment, the quality of opposition, game situations, etc., a player wants to help his team score and prevent the other team from scoring.

I decided to rank our guys by Goals For Percentage (GF%). Other stats listed include Goals For (GF), Goals Against (GA) as well as Expected Goals For (xGF), Expected Goals Against (xGA) and Expected Goals For Percentage (XGF%). I also calculated the differential between GF% and xGF%.

All values represent 5v5 play and are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. Without further ado, here are the numbers.

Player	Pos.	GP	GF	GA	GF%	xGF	xGA	xGF%	Diff.
Archibald	R	30	9	2	81.82	10.22	7.97	56.21	25.61
Rakell	R	33	31	18	63.27	28.47	20.68	57.93	5.34
Joseph	D	29	23	14	62.16	19.43	18.20	51.65	10.51
Malkin	C	33	22	14	61.11	24.28	16.94	58.90	2.21
Zucker	L	29	21	15	58.33	23.25	14.93	60.89	(2.56)
Poehling	C-L	30	9	7	56.25	9.98	9.79	50.50	5.75
Crosby	C	33	30	25	54.55	28.14	21.43	56.76	(2.21)
Pettersson	D	33	25	21	54.35	31.68	22.38	58.60	(4.25)
Rutta	D	33	20	17	54.05	20.42	19.22	51.51	2.54
Petry	D	28	23	20	53.49	22.35	18.68	54.47	(0.98)
Ruhwedel	D	16	10	9	52.63	10.53	7.59	58.12	(5.49)
Guentzel	L	29	23	21	52.27	24.56	19.57	55.66	(3.39)
Rust	R	33	21	23	47.73	22.91	17.36	56.90	(9.17)
Letang	D	27	20	23	46.51	25.26	23.14	52.19	(5.68)
McGinn	L	33	12	14	46.15	12.41	14.90	45.44	0.71
Carter	C	30	12	15	44.44	12.87	16.06	44.49	(0.05)
Heinen	L-R	28	11	14	44.00	13.39	12.87	50.99	(6.99)
Kapanen	R	24	10	13	43.48	10.07	13.35	43.00	0.48
Dumoulin	D	33	19	27	41.30	22.85	22.98	49.86	(8.56)
Blueger	C	18	4	8	33.33	6.20	6.48	48.92	(15.59)
Poulin	C	3	0	3	0.00	0.97	1.39	41.17	(41.17)
O’Connor	L-C	4	0	1	0.00	1.31	1.13	53.66	(53.66)
Caggiula	L	3	0	1	0.00	0.70	1.34	34.32	(34.32)
Hallander	L	2	0	0	—	0.15	0.72	17.35	NA

The batting order generally falls in line with the perception of who’s playing well and who’s not. For example, forward Rickard Rakell and defenseman Pierre-Olivier Joseph have drawn raves, while former defensive stalwart Brian Dumoulin’s struggles have been well publicized.

Other surprises on the plus side include Evgeni Malkin, who’s been better 5v5 than I would’ve imagined, and free-agent pickup Josh Archibald, whose signing drew howls of protests from some.

It’s also interesting to note that all but eight Pens have negative differentials between actual GF% and xGF%, which would seem to indicate the team isn’t performing as well at 5v5 as expected. Indeed, while we’re ranked 13^th in the league in GF% 5v5 at 52.21, we’re sixth in xGF% at 53.75, a deficit of 1.54 percent.

For the record, we’ve scored 71 goals 5v5 and allowed 65, a differential of plus-6. Certainly not bad, but nowhere near elite teams like Boston (+30), New Jersey (+27) and Toronto and surprising Seattle (+23 apiece).

Another telling stat? The Pens are presently ranked 18^th out of 32 teams in 5v5 shot attempts percentage at an even 50 percent. An important indicator, given that 12 of the 14 teams behind us are presently out of a playoff spot.

All this seems to support the fact that our exemplary special teams play along with superb goaltending from Tristan Jarry have been the driving forces behind our 15-3-3 run. And our 5v5 play, while decent, hasn’t been as strong as it could be.

Something to keep an eye on as we head into the New Year.