In the wake of the initial flurry of free-agent signings, to say nothing of some significant hockey trades, I thought I’d take a quick glance at the Metropolitan Division to see who improved, who regressed and who’s treading water.
With front runners Carolina and Rangers losing several key performers and heretofore bottom feeders Columbus and New Jersey on the rise, the Metro promises to be a veritable slugfest from start to finish in the coming season. Only woebegone Philadelphia would appear to be a lock to finish out of the money.
As for the rest of the bunch?
I’ve cobbled together a table listing significant additions and subtractions for the Metro rivals this off-season, along with a brief evaluation and prediction. Teams are listed in order of last season’s standings.
For the sake of simplicity, I’ve only shown players currently listed on NHL rosters by CapFriendly. For UFAs/RFAs, I’m listing players who played a minimum of 10 games in the NHL last season.
Cap numbers are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Here goes:
| CAROLINA (Cap Hit: $78.4 million/Cap Space: $4.1 million) |
| In: Pacioretty (lw), Burns (d), Kase (rw), Coughlin (d), Pederson (c) Out: Trocheck (c), DeAngelo (d), Cole (d), Domi (lw), B. Smith (d), Lorentz (c) Unsigned UFAs: Stepan (c), Niederreiter (rw) |
| The Skinny: The Hurricanes experienced significant turnover this summer while losing several key performers. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Vegas basically handed them Max Pacioretty, and big-time acquisition Brent Burns should buttress a defense that lost some depth. It helps that Rod Brind’Amour’s a quality coach who gets the most out of a team. |
| Prediction: The ‘Canes won’t repeat as division champs, but they should have more than enough to nail down a playoff berth. |
| NEW YORK RANGERS (Cap Hit: $77.7 million/Cap Space: $4.8 million) |
| In: Trocheck (c), Halak (g), Carpenter (c) Out: R. Strome (c), Copp (c), Vatrano (rw), Georgiev (g), Nemeth (d), Braun (d), McKegg (c), Rooney (c) Unsigned UFAs/RFAs: Kakko (rw), Motte (c) |
| The Skinny: Perhaps the biggest losers of the Metro bunch. The Rangers bled off two valuable pieces acquired at the trade deadline, Andrew Copp and Penguin-killer Frank Vatrano, along with second-line center Ryan Strome. Vincent Trocheck was a marquee add, but at present the Rangers lack forward depth. Rumored to be unhappy with leading scorer Artemi Panarin following a subpar postseason. |
| Prediction: Igor Shesterkin, a stout defense and supreme top-line talent will keep Rangers in the playoff mix. Still, anticipate a drop-off from their second-place finish in 2021-22. |
| PITTSBURGH (Cap Hit: $79.8 million/Cap Space: $2.7 million) |
| In: Petry (d), Rutta (d), T. Smith (d), Poehling (c), Archibald (rw) Out: Matheson (d), Marino (d) Unsigned UFAs/RFAs: Rodrigues (c), Boyle (c), Heinen (lw), Kapanen (rw) |
| The Skinny: It’s been a huge off-season for our favorite hockey team. GM Ron Hextall did yeoman’s work to secure the services of pending UFAs Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust. Belying his no-trade rep, he remade the defensive corps as well with the blockbuster additions of Jeff Petry and Jan Rutta. However, scoring depth is an issue. Perhaps age, too. |
| Prediction: Pens will be in the playoff hunt. Look for a third- or fourth-place finish. |
| WASHINGTON (Cap Hit: $88.8 million/Cap Space: -$6.3 million) |
| In: Kuemper (g), D. Strome (c), C. Brown (rw), Gustafsson (d), Lindgren (g) Out: Samsonov (g), Vanecek (g), Schultz (d) Unsigned UFAs: Larsson (lw), Kempny (d) |
| The Skinny: Although still a largely veteran bunch, the Capitals have been reinforcing their lineup with youth. Thanks to some typically astute offseason moves by GM Brian MacLellan, including inking Cup-winning goalie Darcy Kuemper to a five-year deal, the Caps are fairly solid from top to bottom. Much hinges on whether top center Nicklas Backstrom and power forward/hit man Tom Wilson are able to return and play to form. But thanks to their depth, the Caps could enjoy a bit of a bounce-back season. |
| Prediction: If the Caps can stay relatively healthy, they could challenge for the Metro title. |
| NEW YORK ISLANDERS (Cap Hit: $71.3 million/Cap Space: $11.2 million) |
| In: Romanov (d) Out: None Unsigned UFAs/RFAs: Dobson (d), Bellows (lw), Romanov (d), Chara (d), Greene (d) |
| The Skinny: In their biggest move of the offseason, the Islanders axed sure-fire Hall-of-Fame coach Barry Trotz and replaced him with Lane Lambert. Led by horses Brock Nelson and Anders Lee, the Isles are still a solid, physical team from top to bottom, but lack a game-breaker to compliment Matt Barzal. Top defenseman Noah Dobson needs to be signed to a new deal. Rumored to be seeking St. Louis sniper Vladimir Tarasenko. |
| Prediction: The Islanders will compete for a playoff spot. Whether they make it? |
| COLUMBUS (Cap Hit: $80.2 million/Cap Space: $2.3 million) |
| In: Gaudreau (lw), Gudbranson (d) Out: None Unsigned UFAs/RFAs: Laine (rw), Bemstrom (c), Kukan (d) |
| The Skinny: The stunning addition of Johnny Gaudreau gives the Blue Jackets instant credibility. GM Jarmo Kekalainen has quietly constructed a deep, young team. No fewer than a dozen Blue Jackets notched double-figure goals last season; four topped the 20-goal mark. They’re well coached by Brad Larsen, too. If Kekalainen can wrap up Patrik Laine despite limited cap space? Expect the Jackets to be on the rise. |
| Prediction: My sleeper pick to take the biggest leap forward. The Jackets could end their two-year postseason drought. |
| NEW JERSEY (Cap Hit: $72.9 million/Cap Space: $9.6 million) |
| In: Palat (lw), Marino (d), B. Smith (d), Vanecek (g), Haula (c) Out: Zacha (c), T. Smith (d) Unsigned UFAs/RFAs: Bratt (lw), Boqvist (c), P.K. Subban (d) |
| The Skinny: In many ways, the Devils mirror the Blue Jackets. Eleven of their skaters scored double-figure goals last season, also with four 20-plus goal scorers. Jersey inexplicably lost out on the Gaudreau sweepstakes despite offering more money. Non-plussed, GM Tom Fitzgerald made several solid additions, including ex-Pen John Marino, Ondrej Palat and, perhaps most important, goalie Vitek Vanecek. On defense, top pick Simon Nemec could step in right away. If the Devils sputter? Ex-Panthers interim coach Andrew Brunette could take over. |
| Prediction: Not sure if the Devils are quite ready for prime time, but look for them to be competitive and make a strong push for a playoff spot. |
| PHILADELPHIA (Cap Hit: $82.6 million/Cap Space: -$0.1 million) |
| In: DeAngelo (d), Deslauriers (lw), Braun (d) Out: M. Jones (g), Lindblom (lw) Unsigned UFAs/RFAs: Tippett (rw), MacEwen (c), Yandle (d), Thompson (c) |
| The Skinny: The Flyers acquired feisty offensive defenseman Tony DeAngelo from Carolina and signed heavyweight slugger Nicolas Deslauriers, but couldn’t clear enough cap space to make a pitch for home-town boy Gaudreau. They’ll be counting heavily on the healthy returns of Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes and Ryan Ellis, not to mention a passel of unproven kids. Compounding matters, Philly’s tight to the cap. New coach John Tortorella has his work cut out for him. |
| Prediction: Another last-place finish for the orange and black. |
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Instead of worrying that Zahorna and O'Connor won't make the team, I'd be more concerned about something else: Where are the Pens going to get the 48 goals that Rodgrigues, Heinen and Boyle scored last year? And for a measly cost of only 3 million at that? It's amazing how blase' Pens fans seem about losing these guys. I doubt that hat Zahorna, O'Connor, etc. are going fill the void.
I understand why you ask the question of where are the Penguins going to get the Goals that Heinen, E-Rod, and Boyle notched. Heinen effectively had his best season in terms of G/60 (1.2) and 2nd Best season terms of A/60. Most importantly, he still produced when the game was on the line (within 1G), 0.92. And I did like the element Boyle brought to the team. He too wasn't bad 5 on 5 in terms of G/60 (0.75) - it dropped a bit in terms of all situations because he played PK (0.75 vs 0.61). E-Rod, however, he had a career year yes, but his numbers were padded against soft teams and only when the game was out of hand one way or the other. with the game on the line his G/60 was only 0.67.
Now to answer your question,
1) We don't know how much these players have been asking, they may have priced themselves out of a Penguin's uniform.
2) Zahorna scored at a 0.96 clip (G/60) and O'Connor scored at 0.84. Their TOI may have been as sheltered as E-Rod's were but they may be the ones that could replace most of those Goals if Sullivan gives them a chance. Unless or until Zahorna and O'Connor are given the same opportunities and long leashes that a Simon or E-Rod were given we just don't know.
3) Both Zohorna and O'Connor are physically better suited for bottom 6 play than E-Rod. E-Rod is too soft. He rarely hits and when he does he picks the wrong time (remember the playoff gaffe?). Heinen may be able to slot in there, but is better suited to middle 6, but does he want too much money or a greater role? Only Boyle is physically better suited to the roles with open spots than the 2 kids.
4) And most importantly, if Zahorna and O'Connor continue to play they way they did last season (better than the veterans that seem to get better ice time then they do) they will do it cheaper and give the team more flexibility.
An excellent point, Zeidel, that underscores the truly amazing work Hextall did in bringing in effective players on the cheap last summer. Certainly there was some good fortune involved...I don't think anyone would have envisioned Boyle being as good as he was and scoring 12 goals at age 37 following a year-long layoff. Given who they are and what they signed for, Heinen and E-Rod were really good, too.
At the risk of bringing up a lightning rod, I'll throw Dominik Simon in there, too. Not that he's my favorite player. But the little things he did he generally did well.
Rick
Quick update - Pens signed Kappyis this prelude to a trade?
TOR,
Pens have one too many players and are over the cap. Hextall should be patient on this. Most tradable in my opinion in order are Pettersson, Kapanen, Zucker and Dumoulin. If a good deal comes up sooner rather than later, make a package deal for a solid player, If summer is ending trade for a good draft pick, if camp started trade for "future considerations" and if all else fails place one of them on waivers. Absolutely no need to rush.
Agreed Phil,
There is no need to rush. From what I understand, they will only need to trim $400K if they send Smith down (he doesn't need to clear waivers). If the team can get any one of the players you mention hot, at the beginning of the year, it could only make Hextall's hand stronger at the trade table.
However, despite all the talk, after all the media chatter about Kapanen, I would think his days, like a calendar, are numbered.
Hey Mike and Rick,
I really haven't started to look at making predictions yet, there is still plenty of summer left for not only Hextall but other GMs to make moves. Some teams in the Division have already made some improvements in their roster, others seemed to have let their rosters weaken a little. And then there is Philly that even when I think they have improved finds a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - what a mess.
1. Re Zucker, I do agree that Zucker needs to stay healthy, but I would also like to see him and Geno workout/skate together this summer to get a jump on chemistry since it looks like they will be line-mates.
2. Re Dumo: Rick and I were talking this AM, musing over how Dumo had a bad season last year and hoping he gets his stuff together this year, If you recall in my playing GM post, I would have already tried to trade him. The problem is, if he doesn't turn it around, his value will be minimal.
3. Big "Z", Rick and I were just talking about this too. It won't matter how well Z plays in preseason or how strong he looks in camp, Sullivan will opt to use Archibald and Caggiuli over any prospect.
4. Re Goalies: Blombqvist is the best from what I have seen and is more than likely the future for the Pens. However, from what I am hearing he will be loaned back to Finland this season - not a smart move in developing the kid. Lindberg and Gauthier are intriguing. Lindberg played well in his limited time before his injury. I do hear what you are saying though. The team needs to press these Goalies with competition and maybe get an asset at the trade deadline to use as a bargaining chip.
I am still hoping for more trades to remove more veterans to force Sullivan to use some Kids.
Hey Rick
I hope we see a 4th place finish. I'm sure their are a few more moves to be made but we're one
injury away from being sellers at the trade deadline. I listed a couple of observations below.
1) If the Pen's ever needed Zucker to stay healthy and score goals it's now.
2) Dumo gets moved at the deadline.
3) I may be wrong but from what I'm reading Big "Z" is getting pushed out of the bottom 6.
4) Pen's need one of their young goalies to rise to the forefront. If for nothing else to create a trade asset.
5) Prediction: Pens win 43 games and will be on the playoff bubble.
GO PENS
Hey Mike,
I'm not quite as pessimistic as you. Not that I'm predicting a Stanley Cup, mind you. But I think we'll more or less mirror what we did last season (say...45 wins).
Your points are well taken. I'd love to see Big Z get an honest shot...I think he's got some tools and his underlying metrics are great. But I think O'Connor, Archibald and Poehling will get first dibs at making the team. I, too, hope Zucker can stay healthy and have a bit of a bounce-back season. Love what he brings to the table...just wish he'd score a bit more. Even a 20-goal season would be great.
Speaking of health...or our lack of...one thing to consider is our old frienemy...injuries. We almost always get our share, which is likely to open up some playing time for Big Z and perhaps a few of the other kids down on the farm (Poulin, Hallander, Puustinen).
Rick