Apr 7, 2022; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba (8) brings the puck up ice against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
In my last article, I opined that, barring a total collapse, the Penguins are a playoff team. Well, don’t look now, but that worst-case scenario may be playing out before our very eyes.
Our once-promising season continued to devolve last night at Madison Square Garden. (That 10-game winning streak seems like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it?) With captain and linchpin Sidney Crosby sidelined due to a non-Covid illness, the Pens’ pop-gun attack (28th in the league in finishing) sputtered once more en route to a 3-0 loss to the Rangers.
The game pretty much followed our recent pattern. We dominated the fancy stats. But on the scoresheet, where the rubber meets the road, or more appropriately, the ice? Not so much. In an odd sort of way, we’re fast becoming the embodiment of recently traded lightning rod Dominik Simon. Lots of activity with very little to show for it.
SHOOT!
I confess I didn’t see the game but listened to it on the Pens’ radio network. Color analyst and straight-shooter Phil Bourque bemoaned the fact that we were passing up opportunities to get the puck on net in search of the perfect setup. The better, I suppose, to solve the Rangers’ all-world goalie Igor Shesterkin.
That tends to work…never.
Along those lines…
Has Anyone Seen Our Secondary Scoring?
Not that it ever really came all the way back, but our bottom-six scoring has once again dried up quicker than a puddle in the heart of Death Valley. During our recent 1-4 skid only Evan Rodrigues and Brian Boyle have tickled the twine, and E-Rod’s goal was poked in by an opposing defenseman.
Barring our 11-2 shellacking of Detroit, you have to go back to our 5-1 loss to the Rangers on March 25 to see another bottom-sixer (Jeff Carter) listed on the scoresheet.
Top heavy teams don’t go far in the playoffs. Neither do perimeter teams.
Take the Shortest Route to the Puck and Arrive in Ill Humor
In stark contrast to Bobby Clarke’s above stated axiom, our Pens generally try to go around the opposition rather than through them. So often our shots come from the side or a sharp angle, with nary a soul planted in the slot.
Perhaps this is by design. We’re built for speed and not for smash-mouth hockey. But it wouldn’t hurt us to borrow a page from the Flyers’ old book.
Bumpy Road Ahead
Wish I felt more optimistic about our chances. But it’s beginning to feel like 2014-15 (the Mike Johnston season) to me, when we staggered down the homestretch at a 4-9-2 clip.
Unless Jason Zucker returns in a hurry and magically balances out our lines, things could get ugly. In rapid succession, we’ve got the Capitals and Predators on the immediate horizon, followed by home-and-home matchups with the improving Islanders and Bruins.
Look Out Below
Given the dearth of cupcakes on our schedule, I can see us going something like 3-7 over our final 10 games. Unless we right the ship, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that we could slip below the Caps and into a wild card spot. Which would mean a potential first-round matchup with the Panthers.
Heaven forbid.
Puckpourri
The Pens held the advantage in most statistical categories: shot attempts (60-46), shots on goal (30-24), scoring chances (33-17) and high-danger chances (14-6).
Frank Vatrano and Artemi Panarin scored in the second period to give the Rangers a 2-0 lead. Dryden Hunt tacked on an empty netter in the final minute of play.
For my money, there wasn’t a thriftier pickup at the trade deadline than Vatrano, plucked from the Panthers for a fourth-round pick. The speedy winger has six goals in a dozen games with the Blueshirts, three against the black and gold.
In addition to Crosby, defenseman John Marino sat out due to illness. Making his NHL debut, Filip Hallander (no points in 5:52 of ice time) “replaced” Sid. Mark Friedman subbed for Marino.
Sans No. 87, Mike Sullivan slotted Evgeni Malkin between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust. The unit was a collective minus-five with two shots on goal. Skating with Carter and Rickard Rakell, Rodrigues paced the Pens with nine shots on goal. Carter had five and Rakell two.
Teddy Blueger centered for Danton Heinen and Kasperi Kapanen. Hallander and Anthony Angello flanked Boyle on the fourth line, which saw only 3:58 of action 5v5.
I don’t dislike Angello (or Hallander), but I have no idea why Radim Zohorna isn’t playing instead, especially since several of our wingers are versatile and can play either side.
The Pens (41-21-10, 92 points) fell eight points behind the first-place Hurricanes and six behind the second-place Rangers in the Metro. We’re presently up by six on the fourth-place Capitals. Since a 5-1 win over Columbus on March 23, we’ve gone 2-5-1. Since January 25? A pedestrian 14-11-5.
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Hey Rick, yeah you describe it well. It’s like a goal line defense. And we could really use a prime time Sergei Gonchar! Can’t imagine what the argument could be that denies we lack an effective attack from the point. Like you say it has been thus for far too long. And the 1-3-1 on the PP is so easy to defend against without that threat.
Still think we can pick ourselves up and reach a higher level when the bell rings. We cannot return to an earlier incarnation; those days are now part of history. But we are not this woebegone.
Hi John,
I really hope you are right as I say to Rick for the past 2 plus years. With a different coach and a few more personnel changes on defense I think we could advance a couple of rounds with a little luck from the Hockey Gods. For me it has always been the financial issues with lack of Cap Space and lack of young high level draft picks to help Crosby win another cup. Mistakes from the past really hurt.OTR writes about that often.
You mention Nylander and I pray he turns out to be a late bloomer and a steal for us.
BTW, John the players union had their first face to face meeting since Covid started last week and they said it would be 2025 before the players escrow accounts would be paid back to the owners in FULL and it would be only then the NHL salary Cap could actually rise up in a significant manner. That means we have to live with a very tight budget until 2025. Not an easy task for GMRH. The good news for us is that the new ownership group has deep pockets.
I enjoy reading your comments. Very well done.
Cheers
Jim
Speed doesn’t matter when we have very little puck support. We are not “quick” in this respect because there is such separation. Also agree we try to skate around people: I wish they would use those moving picks and skate INTO people and have a late man coming. That’s how you buy time and time is at the very crux of our offensive troubles. I wonder if anyone remembers a play last night on which Rakell got loose in the neutral zone and broke over the line with speed, found a late man who skated in deeper to back in NY’s defenders, and then smartly dropped the puck for the late-arriving defnesman, who had nothing but time and space to gather the puck and either weigh other options or use the screen that had devloped in front of the net. The problem: no defenseman arrived! We had already peeled off into center ice and the puck sailed harmlessly and inertly over the blue line. There is no offense because there is no “second wave” ever. Our defenders also nearly always just get rid of the puck instantly rather than take a second to hold it and look for a shooting lane or try to freeze the defenders moving up on them, which would allow for some negotiation between the point and our hashmark forwards. Instead, we have a Bylsma-era, low IQ approach that mandates we just essentially give away the puck by just letting it fly without any Patience to even allow forwards to reposition themselves. We do lack a traditional point shooter from blue line despite the skating ability of some of our defenders: they are better at dropping down for wrist shots. No one fears our defensemen shooting from the. Blue line so they can crowd them without much concern.
Overall I wonder if we are just out of gas. If so, maybe we can recharge in the final month here. At least, we have some time and somewhere to go, since we are right now pretty futile. Yes we have played a couple of young good skating teams but I don’t think this play of late is representative. Not having Sid obviously was big last night. as well as being without Marino, who may be the most underrated Penguin. He is quietly a creator of offense since he routinely goes against the grain of giving up the puck. He buys extra time and causes a rhythmic shift that disorients defenders by holding onto the puck and waiting out the expected moment when a pass is expected, or a shot. In that way, he is way less predictable and it becomes harder to defend the consequences of his offensive imagination. He reminds me a great deal of a young James Patrick: smoothly altering the terms of how a series of plays can be defended and, often the origInator of that shift, he may not be remembered for it since he won’t make it onto the scoresheet., because his was the first of four puck touches! In any case, I believe we have another gear we can get to. How far that can take us - with age against us - I’m not sure, but I’m fairly certain we will rise to a higher level than this! Fingers and toes crossed of course.
John,
In line with your comments on "no second wave ever" , is the lack of players driving straight down the middle of the ice towards the goal expecting rebounds or passes. I can't tell you how many times I've seen the Penguins get a juicy rebound in the center of the ice and no one is there... like never. These rebound shots (most likely one timers) would all be high quality shots, especially since there is a great chance the goalie is moving or just moved to generate the kickout.
The lack of high quality shots makes the opposing goalies look better than they are.
I also believe they have the capacity to play a much more physical game but clearly shy from it as they are generally the smaller club. That has to change or they won't advance to or through the playoffs.
Hey John and Lightning,
Mike, Phil and I had a discussion about a couple of week or so ago about a lack of Center drive.
Also, like you lightning, I do think that some of our players could provide more of a physical edge, but I am not all that sure that it is stature that hamstrings them. Angello certainly is not a Smurf like so many others on this roster. However, any time a young player shows a little edge to his game he is given press box time or sent to WBS. I truly believe that Penguins are Pavlovian conditioned to avoid physicality using TOI as their reward. The mantra here seems to be "you hit, you sit". The top three players in terms of hits on this current roster are Letang (155), Ruhwedel (131), Pettersson (115).
This team, systemically, doesn't forecheck. Its forwards do not get their hands dirty. They get sent to their rooms (the press box) if they do.
Hey John,
One of biggest complaints for years now has been the lack of respect for a Penguins point shot. I have used the same argument you have, opponents pack in 5 players down low making it impossible for forwards to operate. In the past, several respondents argued against me. Hopefully the evidence is starting to mount in GMRH's eyes. It has been a long time since the Pens had a cannon on their point. Even when they do shoot slap shots they either take to long to get the shot off or their slap shot is softer than a backhander. Opponents have too much time to either set up for the shot or aren't afraid of getting hit by it.
If the team is tired, then again that falls on Sullivan. He had plenty of opportunity to give some younger players TOI while resting veterans early on in the season when the team was playing the cellar dwellers. Now I can hear the push back that the team can't afford to lose a game so not only will no vet get rest, the bench will remain short and they will all be getting 20min+ per game instead of rolling 4 lines.
What scares me even more is that Jarry isn't the same Jarry and may need some rest. He doesn't always look sharp. Unfortunately, again, I can see Sullivan not given him much rest either.
Wow John. Outstanding analysis. And welcome to PenguinPoop, if I haven't already done so.
Your assessment is so complete there's really nothing I can add. But I wanted to seize on a couple of key points. It does feel very much like the (One Plan) Dan Bylsma era. It seems Mike Sullivan only knows one way to play. However, if we're overmatched or overshadowed or aren't on top of our forechecking game, we have no answer. No meaningful adjustment to make.
I agree that we appear to be tired. I wrote in an earlier piece that Sullivan's skating, forechecking approach demands a maximum outpouring of effort on a nightly basis. After a while that's got to wear a team down...especially a smallish, veteran team like the Pens.
To my eye, we seemed to be all over the opposition early in the season. (The quality of our opponents may have had something to do with it.) Now the opposite seems to hold true. We're almost constantly chasing the play.
Also agree about the appalling lack of puck support at times. Can't tell you how many times I've seen one of our forwards break into open ice over the past month or so, only to have no one around to help.
Again, great observations and comments.
Rick
Thank you, really enjoying the blog and the sobriety of your observations.
They often mesh with my takes. I wish we could be more optimistic, but you never know what might happen: almost a month until they play the real games. I think you’re on the money that our all-out style brings with it some energy consequences. Especially given the age of our elite guys. We will see if Sully uses some of these games to rest people and to introduce a new wrinkle or two. Personally, with the offense so stalked, I’m ready for a Nylander cameo. And I can’t help but think - hope? - that Rakell’s silky game is going to be liberated one of these nights. He is a dangerous man, if only we could support the puck a little better. We shall see!
As most of us here have commented on , I am not giving up but I am a realist... Penguins are not contenders.
All the comments so far are right on.
Pens are older, other teams faster and bigger. When the tough get going. ... we can't do anything, except Boyle or Mark.
Doesn't matter who we face in first round, it will be a early exit... Penguins are not built for the rough and in your face playoff hockey.
That game vs NY had a playoff feel... I don't think the Penguins felt the same.
I know leftovers!!! Same old, this team won't change until Sullivan is out and we get a coach that doesn't mind a little pushing and shoving.
Hi Pens4ever,
Great points you make my friend. I totally agree regarding the Coaching change. You can feel it when you see the Pen's and the past 15 games or so they have played in. They never changed but their opponents did.They all got better and we stayed the same. With out the Power play we simply can not win hockey games anymore and during the play offs the whistle gets thrown away by the refs. This is the last dance for these Core players and 2023 will see a much different team.
Cheers
Jim
Hey Pens4ever,
You know, everybody knows, I won't shed a tear if/when the Sullivan era is over.
"The Penguins refuse to see themselves as they truly are. They see themselves as they were in 2017, or as they want to be.
They want to be the fastest team in hockey. They’re NOT! They used to be. But the Penguins only know one way to play." !!!
Hi Rick.
This statement above I read from one of the other sites below and I thought it was worth commenting on as it clearly sums up the Problem of the 2022 Pittsburgh Penguins. We all know this statement to be true and all but the most die hard Pen's Fan will concede that point.As I said, and many others in our last posts, THE RANGERS ARE A FASTER TEAM THAN US !! So are many other teams in the NHL. But what really hit home for me in the above statement was the last sentence.
The light went on upstairs in my head when I read it.
" But the Penguins only know ONE way to play." !!!
Here is the problem. The Pen's do not want to play any other way or even more serious is the fact just MAYBE they can NOT play any other way.
Think about that for a minute. The NHL keeps changing or evolving every 10 years as different teams use different systems to win the Stanley Cup and then the other teams try to copy that winning formula. It goes in cycles.
But the PEN'S seem to be stuck in 2017, not 2022.
I have a theory Rick that I believe may explain this reason. $$$$$ All about money.
Mario wanted to sell his interests in the Penguins in about 2017-18 and return home to Quebec . He even built a new home in Quebec City that rumored to cost 25 million dollars by local Quebec city media sources. The very same year that Quebec City was supposed to get a NHL franchise, but it fell thru in the last few months of the completion. No explanation to truly what had happened.
Mean while Mario and Ron quietly continues to try and sell the team which was finally completed this year. The Covid crisis certainly did not make it easy to do.I am so glad for both Mario and Ron that the sale went thru. Had Mario tried to rebuild the team or change the way we played since 2017 it may have cost him the sale of his team. It was much easier to just keep playing the way we do and tell the fans we are really close to winning another Cup, we just need another player to do it.The Media continues to push that narrative to the fans.
Mean while 4 years later here we are and we are NOT a Cup favorite. Major and costly changes will have to be made for the Pen's in 2023 and beyond for us to win a Cup again.
BTW Rick, Not Mario's problem anymore.....The games played off the ice ...
LOOKS LIKE COACH WAS RIGHT IN HIS ASSESSMENT of our team and it's future.
Cheers
Jim
Hey Jim,
Thanks for the recognition. I am waiting until the end of the season for my "I told you so s, again" or more to the point "we told you so s". You have been right there with me pointing out the flaws that no one else wants to see.
Problem still is that some fans and bloggers are still in denial. Kingerski suggested that things may have been different if Sid had played. Yes Dan, the Pens would have lost 3 - 1. That would have been the only difference. The team would have had a PPG.
What I find funniest about Kingerski's excuses is that when the Pens played and beat other teams missing their star, he never qualified those Wins like he is trying to do with this loss.
I sure hope that GMRH is not as deluded.
Hey Rick,
Pretty accurate recap - not much to hang your hat on here.
I don't know of anything new to say. Our Pens have 1 5-on-5 Goal against NYR in 195:17 of TOI, maybe they should try and fall to 4th. It doesn't look like Sully has any answers. Nothing new, it has all been said over and over again - I hate reheating leftovers!
Rick
My biggest disappointment watching the game last night was our lack of passion and intensity - It just
wasn't there until late in the 3rd period when the frustration boiled over. Other than Friedman we have
no one to light a fire under this team when there going thru the motions "NO ONE". Like you I was a fan
of Angello but with his size he should be thumping guys. We're way to nice to put it mildly.
Zohorna along with Crosby and Marino were listed as sick and out for last nights game.
Side Note: In the last (3) games Malkin has played like the Malkin we love to hate - fly by after fly by,
lackadaisical passes and skating around without a purpose "tough to watch"!
GO PENS
Hey Mike,
I thought a commenter on "Pittsburgh Hockey Now" summed it up best. He wrote that the Pens require a perfect storm of everything going right to beat or compete with the top teams in the league, while our opponents pretty much just need to play their regular game to beat us.
Along those lines, Mark Madden wrote an excellent commentary over on the Trib titled, "The Penguins refuse to see themselves as they are." Spot-on and definitely worth the read.
Thanks for the heads-up on Zohorna. I've been a little out of touch and missed that. I hear ya about Geno. So inconsistent. When he's dialed in like he was against the Wild, he's still one of the most potent and forceful players in the game. And when he's not? Despite 36 points in 35 games...a team-worst minus-7 says a lot.
I'll go a little further. The thing I admire so much about Crosby is that he works on his weaknesses to turn them into strengths. It's why he's such a complete player.
Geno? The turn-it-on, turn-it-off play, especially away from the puck. The maddening turnovers. The undisciplined penalties, the lack of bare down on faceoffs. If anything, his flaws have become more glaring as he's aged.
Quite a contrast to Sid.
Speaking of, I so wish we had a stronger team around No. 87. Still such a great player and you know the fire burns in him to win another Cup. But with so many passengers surrounding him and so few contributors...
Rick
Rick
Couldn't agree more. Crosby's game will always be effective - He's a machine.